ZONE 51

I've updated my wintry weather map to cover EA/SE, using the models and latest radar/satellite data. The infrared satellite shows where the convective activity is, i expect some of the sleet and snow to move down into the Southeast later, highest risk is Kent but i have included further west going by the latest radar. Satellite image below:

This is not a ramp.. could see something white n fluffy heading across our patch friday night into saturday morning, it will be cold enough for snow but what we need to watch for is those showers heading down the east side of UK and if they can get into our region.

Here is something that should help increase a more positive feel towards the snow risk.. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Headline: Wintry showers east, dry and sunny west. Cold northeasterly winds. Today: Cloudy with occasional rain in the south at first, clearing southwards, otherwise bright and breezy. Plenty of sunshine in the west, cloudier periods in the north and east bringing scattered wintry showers, with hail and possible thunder. Cold northeasterly winds. Tonight: Wintry showers continuing in the north and east, with snow as far south as East Anglia, and with temporary accumulations possible even at low levels. Clear, cold and frosty elsewhere. Saturday: Further showers eastern areas, wintry at first; sunny but cold further west. Becoming cloudier in Scotland and Northern Ireland with rain spreading from the northwest, preceded by hill snow. Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: Becoming generally unsettled with temperatures returning to nearer normal. Spells of rain or showers for most areas, with drier periods between. Strong winds at times, especially on Sunday. Issued at: 0341 on Fri 26 Oct 2012 This is the new update this morning by the Met Office. http://www.metoffice...egionalForecast

Quite a bit of Zonal stuff! BUT there is also indications of cold spells to....

CFS - COLD CHART OF THE DAY: 15/11/12

Yes there is, it is a forecast model after all and needs to be used, i can understand the lack of confidence in using it by some but it really does give an idea of what types of patterns we could see over the months a head, for example it could indicate Arctic blasts.

What is showing on the GFS tonight for the 5th November something like this was shown by CFS a couple of weeks ago but it changed.

Here is my wintry map of where i expect the sleet/snow to be, after looking through the models.

What i am going to do is post a CFS chart each day but only one and that will be the cold chart of the day. Looking through over the weeks the model keeps developing Arctic blasts and even some easterlys. The chart of the day posted will be the thickness 500/1000hpa. CFS Chart of the day: 14/11/2012

NAE 18z/48hrs Thickness 500/1000hpa: Arctic plunge, if you like things getting cold then thats the chart for you! The precipitation rain/snow chart next(48hrs) shows where snow should fall within the coldest zones, The next chart 500/1000hpa Thickness from GFS 18z/48hrs, next zooming in to the UK(GFS 18z/54hrs) we can the 528 dam line hits the south coast, A wintry scene of frost,and for some, snowfall, from Thursday night in Scotland, the cold air sweeping across all areas through Friday. For snow watching it's best to take each day as it comes as things can change, it is likely Scotland would have snowfall to low levels, with this progressing to northern hills as we go through the next several days, the risk is lower the further south but as always this can change. ESS

Taking a look at the freezing level chart for next tuesday morning,(all charts same time) why am i looking at these particular charts? let me show some more charts first then your see why, Next the 850s upper temps: 925hpa(look at the green area) 500/1000hpa Thickness next: And next the surprise chart.. It looks like we could be seeing more widespread snowfall moving south monday/tuesday. GFS 18z This is a long way off in terms of forecasting snowfall, things can change, but the way things are going i only expect it to stay the same or to upgrade.

Taking a look at the freezing level chart for next tuesday morning,(all charts same time) why am i looking at these particular charts? let me show some more charts first then your see why, Next the 850s upper temps: 925hpa(look at the green area just to the northwest) 500/1000hpa Thickness next: And next the surprise chart.. At this stage and it is close, is the risk of high hill snow just to the northwest of our region next mon night/tue morning.. GFS 18z.

Yes, it is looking increasingly likely that once the cold sets in through this coming friday then it will be around for weeks, with a risk of some very potent cold spells, what we have is some indications that even here in the south snow could arrive at some point, but for the first round so far this looks unlikely apart form wintry showers/sleet on low ground, but any upgrade could shift more towards and angle were we do get more then that.

Yes, any convective wintry showers are likely to contain hail and ice.

If we take a look at 2 thickness charts from GFS 18z we can see the cold air has plunged right down across Britain by friday evening, 850/1000hpa: 500/1000hpa: (for those that don't know the 546dam line is to the southwest as shown on the next chart, 528dam is the line with light blue following it) Looking through GFS 18z it's cold and wintry and not much less then that, a more potent cold spell could develop towards the end of the month with an indication of another not long after that.

Just got to repeat this for cold fans.

Must take a look and see what the Strat signals were indicating 2-3weeks ago.(takes a few weeks to affect our weather) What was the stratosphere like at this time Oct 2010?

http://www.guardian....mate-experiment Wonder how this experiment is getting on, it's gone on the quite i think, well i've not heard anymore about this. What it is about is scientists trying to cool the stratosphere....

CFS - 3rd Dec, Surface pressure then Thickness 500-1000hpa: The charts show a easterly developing

Take a look at this ECM 240hrs chart, 30th Oct, it shows a large quite deep low to the north and over the far north of the UK, centered over Iceland, with high pressure across the south: Surface pressure/Temperatures 850 hpa Here is the ECM surface pressure at 240hrs(below) This large low could bring a cold blast pulling down cold air, with northern snowfall. Also to note CFS showed a 528dam sweeping down from the north for the 5th Nov CFS-5th Nov That has now gone. After the warmer spell next week then it turns cold. I think from then on it's cold with no return to the warm air, it could be our last shot at warm days for some time.

ramp noun 1. a sloping surface connecting two levels; incline. for sledging down after a snowstorm 2. a short concave slope or bend, as one connecting the higher and lower parts of a staircase railing at a landing. after a lot of heavy snow 3. any extensive sloping walk or passageway. be very careful when it's thick with ice and a snowstorm is blowing 4. the act of ramping. up the propects of snow 5. Also called boarding ramp. a movable staircase for entering or leaving a cabin door of an airplane. more difficult to move in a blizzard

I'm taking it 3 days at a time, as things can change suddenly, some very unusual stuff going on with the setup/models/signals.... i expect some surprises.

(from the MOD thread)

That was why i showed the map of the hills/mountains, to show the hilly areas matches up well to the higher snow amounts and the days snow on the ground snow maps.

500/1000 hpa Thickness 1200hrs next Wednesday: 1200hrs Friday: It's going to be quite a shock from mild/warm to colder air! (GFS 12z) Next is a closer look Next ECM 850s+surface pressure Friday 1200hrs Certainly cold enough for snow on Northern hills Better throw in the dew points chart, GFS 12z