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ZONE 51

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  1. ZONE 51
    Great post Weather-history thanks!
  2. ZONE 51
    (if you don't know your want to be looking at Scandinavia on this chart not the US freeze for our real cold air, not saying it won't affect in some way it would but the north and east is where we keep watch for the real cold for here) sorry are have some more sensible posts next time.. Well it is the first real cold of winter!! (possibly)
  3. ZONE 51
    Good point, have noticed this in there but perfectly natural for this to happen, same as when a forecaster is on TV and you see/hear the weather you are interested in is in their forecast then your like the forecaster a bit more!
  4. ZONE 51
    Interesting feature heading up from the southwest through today and into the night. This frontal system bringing a lot of rainfall to western and northern areas with the low, also this developing system could have a sting in it's tail with the winds for the s/e on Thrs. Accumulated ppn charts - The models look as though they are agreeing with the track of the system now developing off the southwest shores over the Atlantic, we can take a look at some charts to see where the precipitation/rain is being indicated to fall from the weather system. Starting with the NAE 18z and 00z accumulated precipitation up to early Thrs, NAE 18z: NAE 00z The model was indicating what looks like around 12-15mm over Kent but has now removed this threat, this a separate area of rainfall, that could still affect the far SE, still rain to come over the southeast, but not as much now as the heavier acc on NAE (far SE corner) has moved away. The heavy falls of rain looks likely for Wales and up into Northern England and also some into the SW. But things can change when it come to intensity and local areas so something to be aware of. EURO4: At +30 Shown here the deep blues over western Scotland 30-40mm, with north and west Wales 30mm acc ppn, over areas to note from this are SW England and the towards the SE, it's this area of rain the NAE has removed but is shown here on an earlier data. GFS 18z: Quite similar track of the system. +21 - 00z: Acc ppn by 2100hrs tonight, indicating a dry EA/SE. 00z - Next 1800-2100hrs: Next the 00z UKMO 1800-0000hrs (+48), indicating wet for many right down into the SE: Last one now and from NAE 00z - 1500-2100hrs ppn: Very wet for Wales moving up into Northern England through the evening, the rain indicated near the SE corner needs a watch. Have looked at latest satellite images. The weather system I expect could shift a more southeasterly track (tracking northeast but more southeast) bringing heavy rain to central southern and more of the SW. My rain alert map I have covered the central south into the southeast as a watch. The warnings are at the moment for the Southwest, Wales, and parts of northern England, also west Scotland. The warning Map goes up to Thrs early morning and is where the largest rainfall accm are expected using data from several models ESS Next week could be mentioning snowfall, even for the south, the pattern change is likely but the problem being be it rain or snow still goes into the rivers.
  5. ZONE 51
    New thread for 2014 - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78994-heavy-rainfall-and-flood-watch-january-2014/
  6. ZONE 51
    Yes a lot of action in the SW with the storms! (not sure if this chart updates auto, as some do, just saying for later viewers)
  7. ZONE 51
    The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure: A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy. I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW: There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder. Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. EURO4: Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today. NAE: The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today. UKMO: This is for Wednesday 8th ^^ NAE accumulation 00z +48: (just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review) My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow. (Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too) ESS.
  8. ZONE 51
    Ridiculous, I don't ignore anyone they all ignore me!! (Joke)
  9. ZONE 51
    Plumbers (now Debenhams) of Guildford (68 floods) Seen the recent flooding there, great concern of what is possible.
  10. ZONE 51
    Violent squally rain here currently! (Stanwell AND HEADING NE) very gusty. Had these on/off during evening. Seen the MO warnings very much a concern, and I expect more serious floods (hope not) The river Thames through Molesey and Walton (Surrey) has flood warnings, not seen it at this status there at those locations so far, has it been? 1968 those towns got water up to bedroom windows, have read in a book with amazing photos, and did you know then it was a slow moving trough with violent thunderstorms lasted over a week with many inches of rain during summer Sept68
  11. ZONE 51
    The ensembles here still indicating ppn peaks that are quite high, looks like turning cold and wet at times = sleet or snow?
  12. ZONE 51
    Thanks John, had just looked at the Saturday FAX, it does show this the low heading up the west side brushing the country, starting to see a pattern, the bigger lows changing tracks perhaps? (not rolling across the BI) early signs to of a pattern change.
  13. ZONE 51
    (edited my post here) Probably less wind but still a lot of rainfall. slowly easing from Atlantic in the next 2 weeks I expect.
  14. ZONE 51
    Heavy severe squalls swept through my area this evening, a few hrs a go now but was out in it and rain was like razor drops! turned quite wild up here (near Heathrow ap) for a while rain was misting off the ground, flooded so quick. Also of interest rain drops very convective size big drops seemed unusual for this time of year. But it is really a convective set up an unstable mild flow with lines of heavy showers some prolonged and possibly thundery downpours moving through the south (especially) Earlier radar+arrows of direction (screen snap from Met office site(not inclu those arrows! my indication thought would be helpful to some readers) http://lightningradar.net/Online_Map/index.htm
  15. ZONE 51
    Getting very windy here, the gales really rustling up things now. (near Heathrow)
  16. ZONE 51
    Interesting post. Strangely enough back in the 90s (mostly summer time) I experienced longer deeper rumbles that shook the house doors and single pane windows back then, although they were not louder, they rumbled longer, these would have likely been multiple forked C-G strokes delayed slightly between each forked stroke, the channel the stroke took would have been very long as to the long thunder which is expanding air, this would be very loud if a stroke went through colder air I'd expect-if very local to you (A thread on this winter lightning subject would be great)
  17. ZONE 51
    Paul, I have some nice pics but many are low quality possibly to low res for what you would like/need. a few are higher quality from new digi! (last few in list) Have cropped a few. If any photos are used I would like to be credited as - Electricsnowstorm - GG . or, ESS - GG
  18. ZONE 51
    I think that the extremely hot lightning bolt traveling through cold air would expand more rapidly creating a louder (should say more powerful) discharge? during winter the ribbon lightning or streak type is not very common, but the huge C-G single strokes or forked are.
  19. ZONE 51
    40-50mph I'd expect as widespread gales (gusts). possibly a bit higher in heavy shws/stms
  20. ZONE 51
    Was just seeing the funny side of the bit "as it leaves water" ha ha! but yes the band was heavier further west and less so this side. But still expect the unstable air to produce some interest over this way later!
  21. ZONE 51
    So lightning in cold air is more powerful? I think some of the biggest and loudest summer storms occur when the cooler air is there after a heatwave. I noticed storms most likely usually happen on the coldest day after a heatwave..
  22. ZONE 51
    The wind very much gusting up now, it's these winds that are expected to blow in more heavy downpours tonight/tomorrow, with a very convective window there is the possibility of lightning+thunder and hail.
  23. ZONE 51
    !!!!
  24. ZONE 51
    Rain rattled roof and thought I heard thunder earlier! eased now. Just reading on Two site in their thunder and convection thread: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12241&p=4 - some chat about the strength of winter lightning. ​I agree that the bolts could be more powerful in discharge strength, I think one thing is that lightning is not as common during winter (away from the sea) but the energy possibly builds up more and holds off from discharge for longer before the bolt of lightning then takes place, so a bigger perhaps more powerful bolt/strike, we could say several strikes in one bolt?
  25. ZONE 51
    Now got gusty here and thick cloudy fast skies, but now dark which is good as any storms be well bright!
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