ZONE 51

You've found a sunny day during a UK winter..now that is amazing..

I must take a look at these. I have the "its gonna storm in yourtown" app...

Further heavy downpours through today and into the night, see my map below indicating the highest risk areas from the heavy rainfall, some may be thundery and some showers could contain hail especially this evening and overnight: The orange zones cover southern England and Wales, parts of northern England particularly the northwest, and also into Scotland. Map based on 3 models data and latest radar. (note the oranges are lighter on the map than other maps before but these are indicating just as severe as previous maps I have made, but trying to make things more clearer and easier to see the map outline)

No, still very wet, many busy or taking a break, likely reason lack of chat in the severe weather area today. and no Internet access for myself up to now since yesterday afternoon.. Just looked at the FAX charts, surface pressure, the cold front should produce squally rains today especially across the south, I see a trough on there heading into the SW/S this eve, showery flow following into tonight, some active thundery downpours, hail possible ,alot of this heading into the south. So further flood problems to come. (stormy winds for some today too, have gale force gusts right now where I am)

Found a photo on this site:http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/power-supplies-restored-rain-forecast-6453720 See screen image here to compare how high the flood water was from river Mole night before I took my pic!!

Don't look to far ahead...but...

Starting a new thread on the rainfall/precipitation from now and into the new year. This thread is to focus on the precipitation. The storm systems continue to sweep in from the Atlantic in the days ahead with disruption likely and with the continued and increased risk of more floods. Here is the Accumulated ppn charts from 3 models starting with GFS, these are up to Wednesday morning 1 January on New years day. GFS: EURO4: NAE: It is more likely than not that some areas would see the amounts indicated on these models, if I post the written data from the EURO4 model: EURO4 DATA SW England-Devon and Cornwall, Wales 30mm+ South coast of Ireland possibly 30mm N-Wales - 40mm+ Southern England 12-15mm possibly a bit more in places parts of Eastern Scotland-Grampian, Edinburgh and the Borders 30mm+ Northern England-Cumbria- 40mm - 50mm+ West Scotland -Glasgow, Ayrshire and Lanark, Dumfries&Galloway - 30mm - risk of 40-50mm+ Irl of Man - 30-40mm It's looking very wet for many through tomorrow. I have used the 3 models to create a map on where the heaviest rainfalls could occur, inside the yellow zoned area is where heavy rainfall is most likely on Tuesday (tomorrow) within the orange zoned area the highest risk of the heaviest accumulated rainfall up to Wednesday morning with the deeper orange blobs where the largest totals are indicated. Warning map is for Tuesday 31 December: ESS

Cobham,Surrey The storm that affected many areas on the 23rd and 24th of December 2013 is something one cannot forget for it's strength and just how prolonged it was, and it came at a time of festive celebrations, or for some what was meant to be.. I really do feel for those that have experienced the disruption it has caused so closely and so harshly and really hope things get back to normal for you soon. I was at Stanwell on that night and the roof above me was making deep noises and creaking, the trees where roaring, quite concerning at times to say the least and even scary, but not quite as frightening as what some have experienced. On the evening of the 24th I headed off to Cobham from Stanwell only to get stranded on the A3 motorway, on foot! so how did I end up there? the bus got to the Esher area and headed into Cobham only to get to the shut off portsmouth rd at Clarmont gardens (see pics of damage) as trees were down, after a while turned around from the line of stationary traffic, we were now heading for the A3 towards Guildford. The bus stop I was dropped off at was just on the outskirts of the town of cobham, there was Police there blocking access to the town because the river Mole had burst it's banks over Painshill roundabout, and also the other end of town it was also blocked due to the river across the road, so I was stranded for quite a while. It was either a boat or a helicopter I think! Eventually I got to my location that night via a back road but a long way round by car. The photos below are of some of the damage I discovered in Cobham during daylight hours, and also up towards Esher-(where daylight images show trees after removal from road) was really amazed at the damage done, this particular area got hit hard by the storm. Looks as though it's the worst wind damage possibly since the great storm in 1990. and the worst flooding since the big floods of Oct 2000 although it looks as though it might have beaten this record but need to wait for official records. There was a lot of tree damage along the portsmouth rd from Esher must have been something extreme to bring down severals trees over a distance of an estimate 100-200m on one side of road, one tree appears to have been twisted and snapped. Question: in the pic below of snapped tree (1081) what gust strength would do this?? I would estimate 90-100mph as a thick trunk and healthy inside. Also so in pic (1062) I see a Beech tree, but what is the red barked tree?? thanks. Please let us know your storm experiences and some photos if you have some! (If to many photos here I can upload to the gallery please let me know thanks!) ESS

I know and their is no soak up at all, and all the water heading into the big Thames rivers.... slowly rising due to width and depth of it, it takes along time to go down after too

Euro 4 ^^^ upper winds streamlines at 300hpa - NAE below. Potent Jet for Sunday nights storm, 100knt+ So a very active night for the Sunday into Monday coming. The winds likely (have confidence in this to happen) to upgrade for east side of southern UK 60-70mph inland from s-coast

Thanks just zoomed into our shores and got a close up used this link above-see this for the time stamp+wider picture

http://www.weathercharts.org/ -more than enough

I said something was going on.. has there been a top secret meeting on this.. would they tell us if sudden climate change has occurred in 7 days? simply put we should be worried if this pattern continues........... OK hope to put some info on later about the potential for more extreme weather in the north as this storm develops into round 2 A look ahead and as "PerfectStorm" suggests currently looking dangerous for next week, well lets not get to far ahead because after the storm affecting over the next 24hrs we also have Fridays storm to track..

I would say it's more similar in strength to the great Burns Day storm 1990, and for damage. but in terms of weather conditions in general more near to the 87 Great storm for the floods this is producing, and as 1990 was sunny skies it's rather different to Mondays conditions(cloud/rain) 87 winds were gusting up to 115 mph inland(maybe more in places that had no recording device) perhaps tornado's caused swaths of flattened trees along with the violent gusts of the storm. With this storm I'd say that some surprises with the damage in daylight, I feel this is widespread, and very much a storm for the record books.

Be prepared for power cuts, if you have flicking lights at times sure sign of POSSIBLE power cut to come. Make sure some form of battery light with you if possible and charged mobile phones.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25498335 - read tweets here from BBC about the storm Image from the video here shows the 80mph winds sweeping east into Kent

Storm Dirk then? should we roll this now?

What is the name of this storm??? if there is not one then take a look at this list and maybe give a name? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_23 - the storm developed on the 23rd so something appropriate to the event, just looking now..

My lights flickered about half hr ago, this is a possible sign of (it's gettin scary out there) trees touching power cables across the fields, next stage could be power cuts, hope not..

Amazing satellite showing up the very big storm here: (2200hrs) Just taken a screen image of the latest radar Here is a severe squall line heading east: (2345hrs) Local weather here Stanwell next to Heathrow - Very violent gusts now the most severe so far today, was at Staines-upon-Thames earlier was out and about in it almost blown of my feet or at least blown to the side, such loud humming of the lampposts/other, and the market cleared up early got quite ripped up there.. and never seen so many brollys on the ground, and not just broken but quite new looking ones probably unwanted due to can't be bothered any more I'd expect, basically useless using them, best off wrapping up with a hat and good coat... very noisy out there now and my roof..

Edit ^^^^

As much as concern the rain is with the Amber now have AMBER for wind: London and the SE, EA http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387843200&regionName=se Yes sorry so did not click the day chart!

I'm off now, be reading though! not doing a wind map not time have done rain map in other thread. Going to be one interesting day for sure with the weather, excitement levels kept secret... emmmm.. On a serious note serious weather today and Tuesday, very much concerned about this storm and what is indicated after too in the days ahead. Take care everyone and be aware of your surroundings, and keep up to date with the news/weather information.

No way?? there was a mention of wintry ppn over south

Sure I've seen that picture before...