ZONE 51

That's a rare one! That is amazing you picked that out! had not seen it before you posted it, not many would spot that! Look at the next 3 sentences down below your highlighted box... FSO

Always keeping watch sea temps around Greenland, there is a particular known zone of warmth that's a player for cold here. bocked and cold winter... Does that bring more snow?

Not got the heating on, but had tested it a few weeks a go for a couple of days, can't remember but was a few cold days and nights down south at the time, and was first time used since the Spring.

Thanks for that are take a look when I have time ...

I have decided to do a LRF for winter 2013/14 to be released within a few weeks. So what do I expect? A cold winter, potential for severe 2010 style set-up early as then too. A lot of data to analyze to be more confident and while keeping track of new changes, watching Atlantic activity / Jet stream, sea temps, and the far north of UK. October warmth has been behind some of the most severe freezes that followed in the weeks ahead ES.

BlueBreezer, exactly what pattern I had been realizing! storms into kent and Essex and into the SW much of this pattern has occurred this summer with Dorset perhaps receiving above average thunderstorm activity this summer then usual? (for the area) and then the gap in between is Central south (east Hampshire areas) with lower activity this summer. So yes I think a new storm shield possibly has formed! need to look at the data. Yes the night-time warmth noticeable especially for Oct, need to check the reports later and compare to other years.

It was fascinating watching the Dorset storms grow on the satellite last night, around 15 mins the cell grew quick from no lightning detected to a lot all in that time, I think cell growth is around 20-30 mins for a storm to mature on average.

Latest lightning image: All MOSTLY clear of lightning activity everywhere UK and Ireland.A few isolated thunder/ lightning around. It is possible to brew up again especially the southwest, later. Edited...

Zoomed in done a close up of the radar to where the storms are at 0145am the white 20mins recent the yellow is 40mins and other older. and the full image below:

It could do

Main action heading up to Bristol it seems looking at sat, the east edge away from this could plume up some cells for SE side I think, little hints of this on the satellite

SE/London? Useful word especially when it comes to tstms...

For interest here is a BBC weather review for October 2010, remember the warm spell?

It created at around 1145pm now 40-50 mile (est) wide rounded cell seen on the sat (cloud top) quite impressive! The Dorset thunderstorms looks like they are heading north/north east

Seen whats developed over Dorset heading NE? To add that the tstorms over Dorset turned active and heading n/ne now. To the SE across our zones could pop off a few cells over here later could be a thunderstorm.

Not on the MO or NW detectors yet but should be on the 0000hrs update That storm blow up in 15 mins! I wondered at first surprised how fast it went up!

New development can see on the image here (lightning detector) Moving into Dorset from the sea

I have been radar / sat, lightning detector watching. Kent storm magnet as expected. I can say thanks to the radars or I would have been window watching for hours with the radio crackling on LW! and probably not have seen any lightning as to far away and cloud ahead of it. Still like to listen to the crackles though. Not got LW on my radio I have now, always enjoyed doing that could even hear the French storms crackle for hours! Someone I know in Crawley area watched some lightning around 8pm with the info relayed to me! "Kent storm magnet as expected" OK I didn't expect such a miss of the main action this evening!

Yes from a cold and snow fans point of view we don't want deep low pressures Atlantic systems sweeping the zones that need to be cold, this ultimately mild's up things there (and here) The Jet stream watch is on!

I have got a pattern matching algorithm in my head using this on the GFS model I can let you know if the cold spells going to come off 0:

Interesting, I have always wondered how much atmospheric electrical charge is left after a thunderstorm(s) for how long and and also to what effect on the atmosphere and even weather itself. If there is no lightning in a wide area for years then how does this affect and any difference when lightning has occurred in the same areas.

If the main storm threat.. err no that is not treat...well for some... depends...I mean if it is more west then we complain when its more east so what is the problem? if the convective activity runs up the system then as it shift this way then more chance of catching something interesting or letting something up in front of it?

New snow alert system coming soon for winter 2013-14 by ESS (myself) DEMO below: Chart is 2 image animation. The chart would be set so if does not load ,first image would show, this would be the purple warning banner, are do some tests. First frame to show if not playing would be: How it works is there be yellow, orange(on that on above animation) and red, there is green this be for minor snow lowest alert not sure yet ideas are welcome! the purple would indicate snow as per snow chart colour, it would flash to the appropriate alert color. The set image for non loading would be the above purple alert image., which would be on one of the 4 alert levels, I might put the level text on all first images when I create them. Just to note a look ahead to later(3rd/more likely 4th week) this month, the cold spell I am expecting still possible, this would be our first real daytime cold air with frost at night, at first mountain snow. What do I expect this winter to bring, just a quick few lines here but are post some more info and data info at some point soon. 2013/14 - a cold winter, 2010 freezing weather started early, in late Nov, I expect it's possible again and see this pattern emerging... ES.

Very interesting period of weather coming up (already started for some) feels like August when we get the thundery plumes, well it is the same and quite impressive for October! and would be just as exciting any other time! Many storm forecasts out track back up the page and previous for lots of information / storm forecasts.

When? You mean this mornings risk we had?