ZONE 51

@ 0001 HRS thread title could confuse...

Just looked at radar and lightning and heavy downpours!... (in the areas you indicated) Keeping watch on thunderstorm risk for S-UK this weekend, could be some surprises I think.

A concern with more storms possible. I think that the more the ground becomes saturated the more risk trees would be at risk of falling in less strong winds then if the heavy rain did not happen. And also weakened trees.

Just looking ahead to next Tue on this chart... GFS Jet / SLP: Potentially stormy across far Northern UK early next week, need to keep watch of the possible interactions for severe weather. Before that though a line of developing potentially deep low pressures from the Atlantic, first one arriving through Friday 1st Nov. At least three potentially severe systems this weekend and early next week, these look as though there head into S-UK(could track more north) The risk for S-UK is heavy rain and flooding with possible gales or severe gales along the coasts and a risk of inland gales, of course there is the risk of severe gales developing inland too but at this stage the coastal zones main risk from this this weekend. I see a chance of some lighting and thunder too. 180MPH+ Jet stream over Scotland next Tue

keep check frequently with the TV and Radio forecasts and if your'e reading this then the Internet too. This is a severe weather event take it seriously.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map - WEATHER WARNINGS MET OFFICE http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1382918400 - STORM http://www.bigsalty.co.uk/home.php - WAVE HEIGHT AND FORECAST AND WIND http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Wight - SHIPPING - USE THIS ALSO FOR COASTAL

Could get thunderstorms over the weekend keep watch don't want to miss(on the charts/models) what is ahead of the storm and also the big storm on the way and it's convective potential... lightning, squalls and tornado possibility's...

It happens when heavy distrupive snow heads in! bread and milk cleared...

Here is a join of 2 photos of the Stanwell Thunderstorm on Sunday morning. What would you think if you saw this heading your way!...The image stitch shows exactly how it looked along the horizon. This is how it was straight from the camera! Can I throw in a nice sky pic from another week... (going to look back in the thread now see lots of amazing pics to look at!)

Interesting but much of a concern. Very rare set-up and rare for this to evolve over South UK.

Have been reading the thread and what great experiences many have had the last several days. I like the new color coded storm and convective forecast charts! Would like to mention the fantastic light show that I experienced on Tuesday eve, I was located in Ashford Surrey and then Stanwell next to Heathrow, first noticed the storm around 19.55 hr was amazing to watch, very much one of the best I'd ever seen before! ones we used to get! but not in October!! multi flickering across the south - southwest horizon, saw some nice lightning, white and blue. The thunderstorm cloud tops were sharply defined black bubbly edges lit up against a clear sky above, fast racing cumulus bubbly and orange ahead of the storm, it was very mild for an Oct eve, as the storm got closer I actually felt cold down drafts this was coming across in gusts, and another cell to the sw horizon developing, this was two light shows frequent every 15 - 20 secs at least and when it did go it went wild with multi flashes, it felt like mid summer in the 90s-then these type would sit there for many hours. When the storm come over the main light display was almost overhead and very bright, lots of people around saw this. Around 20.30-21.00hrs torrents of rain fell with deep thunder and bright lighting, it then moved of n/nw. This storm turned out some very strong wind gusts. Just going back to Sunday morning (the day of the Hayling tornado) had an impressive storm over Stanwell, took an incredible few photos of the cloud structure that was so dark orange, around 08.00 , was some bright flashes not visible though it was not clear air like Tue, had some deep thunder too. It gave some torrential rain and very gusty squalls. Most amazing several days of October thundery weather I can remember! It could be that after quite a thundery summer across many areas (and most noticable over inland SE due to lack of night time thunder storms since 2009) there is now a return to these set-ups and next spring and summer could be thundery if so, I'm talking about late eve / night storms, that we had seen the lack of over recent years! Not on home computer are upload pics of Sunday storm at some point. unfortunately for Tue light show I did not have the camera on me, but seen lots of pics from others from the night on the Internet! but I am very happy I got the impressive light show!!

Been following the recent convective excitment and it continues! WOW that south coast tornado amazing! reading the updates and on UKWW on that and convective. Severe weather potential wondering what this going to brew up, most interesting weather and so warm especially the nights for Oct. gave me a great TSTM Sunday am..

By Denise Winterman BBC News Magazine It's often said by laymen that the UK's weather is unique. But what makes it so different from anywhere else? Whatever you think of the British weather, if you don't like it one day there's always a good chance you might like it the next. Weather, in meteorological terms, refers to the daily elements like temperature, wind and rain. And in Britain they can all change hour by hour and day by day. It's this diversity and changeability that makes British weather so distinct, say meteorologists. While temperatures are fairly mild and there are four distinct seasons, you can also get warm weather in the middle of February and freezing rain in the middle of August - or both in one day. "Other countries might have more dramatic weather," says Dr Liz Bentley, head of the Weather Club at the Royal Meteorological Society. "In India and Pakistan you get monsoon season, but you can usually predict the day it will start and the day it will finish. "In the UK you sometimes have to look at the weather forecast several times in one morning just to plan a trip out that afternoon. Things can change that quickly." Many meteorologists call the British weather unique, although some say you could argue the weather in all countries is unique because no two are the same geographically and geologically. But they agree it is hard to find another country in the world with weather that compares to the UK. So what makes it so distinctly variable? "Britain's unique weather is all down to the fact it is an island and where it's positioned on the planet, between the Atlantic Ocean and a large land mass, continental Europe," says Helen Chivers from the Met Office. "There is a lot going on meteorologically where we are." Britain is under an area where five main air masses meet. An air mass is a large body of air that has similar temperature and moisture properties throughout. In the UK they are either polar or tropical, depending on where the air mass originated; they are also divided into maritime or continental, depending on whether the air has passed over land or sea. They come from all directions and can bring all types of weather. When they meet it creates a weather front. The air masses fight it out and the one that wins dictates the weather. The bigger the difference the worse the weather can be. There is a sixth air mass, the returning Polar Maritime, which is a variation of the Polar Maritime. - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24305230 - link -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fascinating stuff. Some more images on this link: http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/china-cave-weather-20131002 Site with loads of stuff on caves and all things cave! http://www.pinterest.com/matred/caves-caverns-grottos-holes/ Be interesting to keep track of their discovery's in there.

My thoughts are based on a UK winter by the way!

Removed quote boxes playing up

Thanks BD plenty there to check out. i look at those sometimes (short-medium range) but use other chart/data suites usually. I need the Northern hemisphere archived charts to compare the data using overlays with colour analysis (upper temperatures) just be interesting to see what cold and warm pools were where during Oct 2010 and compare to today's (for example)

Being skirted by a 546 dam and then returning to mild is not really the dreams of a cold fan. Still an interesting change though and late week likely to get very cool feeling very gusty winds, but I would rather keep the warm days and cool nights, I like October warmth, I think back to the summer with the flat baking hot, the cool nights offset the day-time warmth and as the sunshine is in a different angle coming in the flat (west facing) it does not warm up much now so it's comfortable in doors, and that is without radiator use too. I enjoy the warm days we are having and being able to feel just right out and about, even the evenings up until around 9 / 10 pm has been mild, but very cool nights.

Couldn't find a thread for mixed things not weather related so are place it here - http://uk.askmen.com/ You might not have been to this site (link above) very much worth reading, tonnes of interesting things on there. Also I searched the site for "weather" has with some links. Are these regional threads for mixed posts, I've always imagined that the last year or two mixed stuff is accepted, or are they for weather / weather related posts only??

Quest for heat and light, and of course the fire that produced these was used for cooking and tool making.

CC, this one might be of interest to you (or others) http://www.globalweathersystems.com/Climatology.htm http://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/ (when it's back on!...)

Early indications of a cold winter of course makes cold fans get excited, and get more into the model output for many. Now is the time when I myself starts getting into things more closely like the Stratosphere watch, for example (there is a thread each year for this)

Cold or snow in every worded sentence?... Seriously he's a good poster. Going to be very exciting model watching(has started) mainly but of course not exclusively so due to the early freezing winter potential there is, and winter model watching is full of surprises!!

Where can I get / find the archived charts of the posted image type? access to the site but don't want to spend ages looking around to find them. Thanks! same as posted chart but for the last few years of Oct 2009-12 (link if possible please)

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/ Latest analysis see link below image (at the above link), that takes you to a high resolution image and there you can zoom in closely to areas. Have zoomed an area of north Atlantic on the high res: (Image 4th Oct 2013) The sea surface temperature anomaly 5th Oct 2013: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur Comparing this image to last years around the same time where I circled (last year) the formation of a line cooler waters in the east Pacific, the image below is 8th Oct 2012, La Nina. You may like to view the sea surface currents, image below: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_current - Read more