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quest4peace

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Posts posted by quest4peace

    When do you predict the first 20°C and 25°C of 2024 will be?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I remember as a kid growing up, that the March Winds,April Showers bring forth the may flowers saying was true 🙂 Granted these days its seems all over the place, but May was always the first month for any decent "Heatwave" 🙂 In fact i remember hearing people saying how amazing it was to get temps in the 20's in May 🙂 Then from june till the end of the school holidays or so it was quite often water fights and such in long warm sunny spells 🙂 Who knows this year hey :D

    • Like 2

    The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    Grass and roofs, still white with hard frost here in my part of Telford' although signs of melt as the sun slowly  moves the shade on :) I think the weather is is purposely being awkward for us regarding Christmas day lol! Relatively cool up to and after again but a silly 12-13c on the day itself? Sense of of humour our weather has :) Might be nice to have a good storm go through though :)

    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by quest4peace

    Roll on spring :) At least for the lighter Days... Although i am a snow lover, Maybe the north atlantic cold pool is not such a good thing, i think it's partly to blame to be honest.

     

     

    The Midlands Regional Discussion 26/03/13 21z ------->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Going to be controversial here, even though i am a snow enthusiast :D Were getting the odd clear patch in the sky here in Telford and it's having a good go at thawing the snow. It's gets quite a good pace of melt as soon as the sun pops out from behind the clouds. Never thought i'd say it but i just want it to go now :/ and let spring take over,(for my gas bill anyway) :p

    Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by quest4peace

    Hi quest4peace .. I would still suggest that all anomalies over 4C are highlighting missing ice cover ,, they are all directly adjacent to negative anomalies .. However I agree that the waters north of Scotland and east of Iceland are incredibly warm considering .. maybe the heat is needed by the blooming algae .?

    Hi smile.png I quite like your idea of the blooms acting as a fail-safe when the ice goes. And I can't ignore the bad state of the ice at the moment I:e the massive cracks. Annoyingly at a time when area has done quite well seemingly just now over previous years.Also the arctic above 80 degrees seems to be going through it's coldest period for many a year. So many contradictions at the moment to what we are visually seeing, and i'd like to think the eye doesn't lie. Which makes me wonder about Gray Wolf's theory of a change in direction of the warm currents. We shall soon be able to see what is unfolding with onset of melt. Not looking forward to it.

    And just a round up of all the factors that make up the arctic smile.png

    Extent on IJIS shooting up again to chaallenge 2012's extent?. Is a little cheer not deserved for the better than recent years area smile.png

    Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

    Really close to average as far as area goes now smile.png

    seaice.recent.arctic.png

    Surface Temps 80n

    meanT_2013.png

    temp_latest.big.png

    Arctic -50c temps have died back somewhat but still very cold smile.png And then the conundrum of that traceable line of warm sst that reach back from svalbard down towards Canada in a line.

    color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png

    Confusing to say the least biggrin.png

    P.s then we have this diagram :/ Brown region this years min?

    20130226.GIF

    Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by quest4peace

    I have wondered about all of this 'extension' of the N.A.D.

    It seems common sense to me that if you warm the water the current runs through it'll be able to conserve heat and so run further?

    i'm sure ice free conditions do show a warm anom where ice once was but the areas in question have seen many recent winters under low ice conditions ( upping the average temps?) so maybe the current can also run longer?

    I still think we'll find that the 'Laptev Bite' is evidence of late summer N.A.D. extension?

    So are you kind of thinking what i'm thinking GW? The normal N.A.D position isnt amazingly far south of where the line is so could it be that an off shoot is a bit further North?

    Large increase in the IJIS extent yesterday, taking back above 14 million, to 14,116,719km2. This is higher than the 2011, 2007, 2006 and the 2005 annual maxima.

    Cor blimey see sawing around at the moment be interesting to see where it lands smile.png

    Cryosphere today has gone gone the opposite direction, with a small drop to take the global sea ice area back below average.

    See sawing around at the moment then B.F.T.V where will it land i wonder? smile.png

    Hi, Q4P .. looks to me more like the anomaly caused by missing sea ice .. air over open ocean being much warmer than over ice . This is the prime cause of the dramatic temperature anomalies in the arctic since the great melt began .

    Hi Be cause smile.png I know the dynamics of missing ice but this line of anomolies just seem different especially if you trace the line backwards smile.png Gray .Wolf has mentioned studies in the past, that indicate a possible shift and penetration to more northerly lattitudes, and the sea surface temps have been 8-10.c above average all winter witout hardly budging smile.png

    B.F.T.V and Gray wolf have you any opinions on this?

    Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    I think you might have that the other way around. Typically, cool downs happen quite gradually, while the warm ups are rapid events

    RBRWuG0042_CO2_T_Vostok.gif

    As for the rapid replenishment of glaciers, I guess it depends how much mass was lost in the first place. You are certainly limited by the amount of glacial ice it's possible to form in just a decade!

    The sun is certainly looking very quiet. It's global influence of temperatures are still far from being known with any certainty, but so far, are considered to have little impact, compared to ENSO and GHG changes. Still after a 15 years of a downward tending ENSO and several years of unusually low solar activity, if we don't start seeing some kind of drop in global temperatures soon, the case for CO2 being the main driver of temperature change certainly becomes significantly stronger.

    But the sea ice was already lowest on record by most counts even before the storm last August. The volume trend (and to a lesser degree, the entent and area trends) show no sign of being influence by solar activity in recent decades and are on accelerating declines. Clearly they haven't reacted to the lowering of solar activity since 2008.

    So Keith, if we have another record melt this year, will you still consider the sea ice trends as linked to solar activity?

    Good to see ya back Q4P!

    Over 14 million on the IJIS extent now, and just 80k off the 2005 maximum, having already passed 06,07 and 11.

    As of February 16th on the NSIDC extent dataset, we've now passed the 2011 maximum and are just 20k off the 2006 maximum.

    Here's a graph showing the annual extent maxima and the difference with the current extent.

    post-6901-0-17243000-1361114475_thumb.jp

    Hi BFTV :) Couldn't access the thread for seemingly agesfool.gif But i see it's back :) So on the face of it things are looking promising? What are your current views on the current situation :) Nice to see the whole arctic basin very cold now and even some -50c 2m temps developing :)

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