quest4peace
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Posts posted by quest4peace
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I can see a big area of precip coming from the irish sea towards cheshire on Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | MeteoGroup and seems to be linking to give a streamer?
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Snow is falling again here after going a bit clearer
Telford -
All is quiet, and the moon has made an appearance now, and temp has dropped loads. Telford.
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Snow still mixed annoyingly, but getting teased with heavy bursts of all snow every now and again
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Don't know if my fellow telfordians can confirm but heavy snow here now with good flakes
Wonder if any of it will stick and then a 0c or below day tomoz -
Yes, snowing here now
Beeb website actually got this spot on for a change, in usually not very snowy Telford
Compared to those east of us that is Lol! -
Currently snowing lightly after a heavy hailstorm earlier
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Well stoke is bang on in the knife edge situation. If we get snow from this then its all cheers for u. Then again I am nearly 180m ASL so always helps.
Were slightly south west of you, so for me so near so far maybe?. But nice to wake up to a few cm's here for a change
will do as a starter. -
Nice view to wake up to this morning in Telford
Think it's started raining now though -
Massive flakes here
sticking like mad -
Everywhere white here in my part of Telford
Snow coming down heavy as well now, no great depth but a nice covering over everything. shame it won't fall for much longer. -
Flakes have got slightly bigger here
settling on cars and shed roofs but not the roads. Still only a talcum powder dusting though -
Nice flour dusting on all paths round by me where frost hasn't totally disappeared
really weird to see long stretches of path one side of rows of houses and nothing on south facing sides Lol! -
problem being that we have not been seeing sustained cold across the basin? If we believe PIOMAS then the ice is even thinner than the past years where we saw ice export of the thicker ice?
If we believe the 'Strat Warmers' the the polar vortex is just about to be blown out of the basin with little chance of it re-forming before the spring equinox is up on us?
With FY ice increasing it's share of the basin (again) it is a concern to have read how much more energy this ice type allows into the waters below compared with the older ice. To me it means a threefold increase in what energy used to get into the basin even before the ice has gone. If this is the mechanism that allows the mega algal blooms to develop then we have an even darker surface to concentrate this energy on early in the season further speeding up the loss of the FY ice.
Last year we 'apparently' saw 3m+ of Canadian Archipelago FY ice go by Aug. How much 3m FY ice do we have in the basin? To me it seems a safe bet that an average year will again take the vast majority of the F.Y, ice. Add into this the amount of 'multiyear ice' which is FY ice welded onto the base and we may be looking at very thin multiyear ice come Aug. Any recurrance of the cyclone will surely mangle this ice leaving only fragmented ice throughout the basin.
Fragmented ice exposes more surface area (to it's mass) than solid ,contiguous ice and so melts out far faster.
That is an 'average year'. what if we get an above average year???
Hi Gw
to be honest, I must admit, i've been posting the 2m temp maps of the arctic myself, over the past few weeks. I must say, that even i've commented on how much milder, than it should be, it has been up there based on the maps :/ There has been a distinct lack of the deeper blues (-40c and below) that i would associate with the arctic.Must admit i feel a bit lost with it all.Here's todays chart.
Still the milder stretch in the middle with the colder air dispersed either side of the continents.
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NSIDC December review.
The rest is here http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Let's hope the Negative phase we are in can help the basin at least
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Latest PIOMAS update, not looking good at all...
Just a temporary thing from the winds. What it does show is the big difference that a long spell, especially seasonal, of southerlies through Fram could make with holding that thicker ice in the basin. Unfortunately, those types of weather patterns have been largely absent since 2005.
Thanks for your reply BFTV
It's really frustrating to see that all the arctic needs initially, is a change in wind directions. I must admit i would never of thought a southerly wind would in fact be an asset up there for the ice. Meanwhile the ice condition in general is still quite appalling interesting times.Look at the current ice speed and direction
Wouldn't it brilliant if it was like this till the end of winter? -
Has the ice always shifted in the way it does towards the end of that animation or is it just me? I can't remember seeing such a large lurch away from the east of Greenland... That said I rarely remember what I did earlier these days.
Quite dramatic to say the least
I'm used to hearing that the ice is disapearing down fram so is it not good that it is going the other way now? albeit temporarily Can you give us any more info on that BFTV? -
Current sea ice thickness animation
Note the sudden expansion of the core of thicker ice in recent days..Click to enlarge and animate.
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Based on the daily extent values, the mean annual extent in 2012 was the lowest on record at 10,417,502km2. This is 1,768,180km2 lower than the average of the first 10 years from 1979-1988 (12,185,682km2).
Hi BFTV
Not looking good for the max this year? The area has dropped to over 1 million below again as well hasn't it? -
Good to see we are above 2010 at years end, but apart from that pretty dire
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Current 2m surface temps in the arctic still quite woeful especially around the pole. "SurfaceTemps" of nearly +10c near to Svalbard
That cant be good? -
1979's 80n temp plot
Really interesting to note, how far below average the line went, for most of the year.
2012's temp plot oh dear....
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2m Temps not amazingly cold over the Arctic at the moment,
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Have I mis-interpretted what occured to the North of Greenland?
Take a look at the above image, blow it up and focus on the 'open water' to the north of Greenland?
That is ice below the water is it not? Have the southerlies just flooded the region?
Just a question but, If it is indeed just flooded and not a gaping hole
would that infact help the thickness of ice there if the flood waters were to freeze on top? Wildly out there suggestion admittedly but any merit to that question?SSt's aren't looking as disastrous in the basin but just look at the Huge sst anoms still around svalbard? and the nw coastal area of norway/ iceland
Telford
Compared to those east of us that is Lol!
sticking like mad 
interesting times.
That cant be good?
but any merit to that question?
West Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted · Edited by quest4peace
Lol! Can anybody judge where it will run through?