[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Well the past few years it has had to wait for near winters end to begin? If we are seeing ice losses impacting winter ice gain then will the past summers record losses be reflected in this winters re-freeze (in area and thickness?)?

The 'counterbalance for Area/extent looks like it will be Bering again as the H.P. allows the ice factory to fire up again. What happens if this occurs and though we see a record amount in Bering the basin still fails to make average?

Last summer it made average at winters end and yet still finished 18% below the past record low even though, according to the Arctic Report Card, Arctic temps have been unremarkable for the past 10years.

Will we ever find ourselves above the 07' min from here on in?

If so would that not be a remarkable feat in itself that an event needing a 'perfect Storm' of melt conditions, just 5 years ago, is now beaten by average summers time after time?

It's akin to the Global temp level it took a super nino to take us to now being ever more common place in average nino years?

In my way of seeing things Barrentsz and Kara have now spent 10 winters struggling to gain anything like 'average' ice levels. Let us not forget that expeditions in the 30's and 40's marvelled at the Massive Paleocryistic ice that used to reside ,year round, in these areas so we have seen an area that used to be involved in both the making and building of such ice turn into an area with poor ice levels. This conditions has occured over both positive and negative global drivers and has seen solar max's and mins without the trend being impacted. We are now seeing Baffin along the same route with Beaufort now also showing signs of gaint impacts (the beaufort Gyre has gone from a place Full of maturing Paleocryistic ice to one that actively destroys perennial ice over summer).

If the open water over Barrentsz and Kara has been seen to impact the atmosphere above them, esp. in autumn/early winter, then what will the addition of these other areas mean for the atmosphere over the Basin (and the teleconnections further south?) as they to exert similar impacts???

If gthe level of Arctic amplification that Barrentsz and Kara produced helped bring the losses to Beaufort and Baffin then how much greater will be that forcing with those areas now also contributing to the pot?

Let's wait and see what the winter brings ,both to the basin and to us further south?

Hi Gray Wolf Sorry it's taken so long to reply, but even my benefit of the doubt has dropped, regarding the ice situation Looking at how far above average the 2m temps have been above average during winter, it makes me wonder how long it will be before summer temps are that far above average? and so on. The bering sea is getting the ice, that should be on our side to my eye, is it simply down to the changed weather patterns? And does it mean there is a chance of conditions, where it may move back to more normal areas/ice levels our side?. Didn't know paleocrystic ice was the norm around that area? (Kara/Barents) just shows how much has changed doesn't it,i thought it had always been seasonal just proves what's gone on really

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

2m sufaceTemps in all areas of the arctic looking colder and colder which i'm sure is to be expected except... you guessed it kara/barents?? will those deeper blues ever get over to our side at any point i wonder?

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Arctic 2m surface temps finally looking a lot colder, over a bigger area as of the latest temp map.

Green is Anywhere from 0c to -20c

Lighter blue seems to be about -19 to -25?

And dark blue is anything from -25 to -45c

DMI/COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | [Arktis]

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

It just does not feel right to contemplate a melt out of the pack? I know we are told that the end will arrive very fast (the remaining ice, all being of similar thickness at the end of that summer, would disappear over a matter of days?) but guessing when that event would occur surely has too many variables?

I think the thing to worry over is the speed at which the ice goes as we do not need another 2012 with low ice by the start of Aug? If thin F.Y. ice played a role in this then ice gain over the coming winter must be key? To see Lincoln sea still feeding Nares (even though Nares appears blocked?) raises questions about temps below the ice as does that fissure opening to the north of Greenland. I think folk should keep an eye on the travel into Fram as our weather seems hell bent on setting up a northerly from the Svalbard area feeding into Fram?

I sometimes wonder if the folk on the models thread truely know what they are witnessing/wishing for?

A northerly for us,at the cost of the ice in that area?. I'd rather have the ice still in tact, and us get a cold north westerly or NE/E from Scandinavia and Russia. Heck i would even take a really mild european winter, if it meant the ice had a chance of recovery up there, and this is coming fom a cold and snow lover.

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Tis much bigger than a crack!

You could actually see the open water area developing yesterday too. We're seeing a very strong southerly air flow up across the north of Greenland, which is driving the sea ice poleward, away from the coast, and carrying anomalously warm air over the region.

Impressive cold anomalies across Antarctica though.

Slight under statement by me there Is this unheard of or can it happen in any given year?

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Worrying shot from the IJIS Amsr Extent and Concentration map for today. Anybody notice the big crack developing just off North eastern greenland?? Blue streak of open water has suddenly appeared?

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Double posted??

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Quite a disparity between the IJIS and NSIDC extent today.

The IJIS has yesterday down as a drop of about 12k, which is somewhat unusual for the time of year. A clear loss of ice from the Bering sea as southerlies kick in visible here

Meanwhile, the NSIDC have yesterday down as an increase of 189k, more than double the typical daily gain for the time of year, taking us to 905k away from the long term average, closest since June 9th.

Data error for ijis? Bering has been above average in recent days, from what i can see on cryosphere today

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Currently 88k above 2010 and 217k above 2006 on IJIS.

Things still looking good for continued strong extent growth over the next week. The next year ahead of us now is 2007, 185k up the the road. 2007 only gains about 56k/day over the next 5 days, so we'd catch it with 93k/day. That will be tough to manage, but considering the last 5 days have averaged over 100k/day, it's certainly possible.

What a strange freeze season we've had so far

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

It should still be plenty cold to prevent any melting now in central areas. At this time of year, it's only a case of how fast the ice growth will be, rather than considering any meaningful losses.

I think that's a 116k jump to the 20th, and puts us 17k ahead of 2006.

Some positives at last Here's the most up to date 2m surface temp map from

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

Nice to see the really cold air covering more of a bigger area Temps of between -25c and -40c?

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Some good new for ya Q4P.

Going by the NSIDC extent, as of the 19th, we're no longer lowest on record, being 16k above 2006 and just 20k behind 2010. We'll likely see us jump 2006 on IJIS when it updates later this morning too. On CT we'll probably have to wait until the weekend for a chance to get away from record lowest.

Current forecast shows a very strong Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic and splitting the cold air, sending it into Siberia and Canada, with much milder upper temps spreading through the Arctic Ocean(~ -5C). This pattern may be good for building ice out around the edge of the pack and surrounding seas (especially Kara and Hudson Bay), though we'll likely see a slow down in growth around the Bering strait due to southerly winds.

Hi BFTV Hope it's not too little too late though and will the milder central arctic air, do any more damage to the central area ice? or will it still be cold enough to keep it stable . Colder air in russia could be good for snow cover increases though?

The Ijis latest value : 9,374,063 km² (November 20, 2012)

Rise of about 127k? as of yestreday?

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

The latest ijis value : 9,257,656 km² (November 19, 2012) lost track of any increases /decreases because i haven't looked for while

Do i see a slight up turning of the line? would be nice to join the main pack again at least,after being lowest on record most of the freeze season so far.

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

And the Extent/concentration map as of yesterday Baffin showing thrusts of ice if you use the daily menu and our side is starting to extend as well at last all be it painfully slowly.

Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

RTG_SST_HR Analysis

As far as sst anoms go, most of the arctic seems to be 0 to +1 so not massively over, and hudson looking below average Those sst's really are quite stubborn around kara and Barent's though although maybe a hint of them relenting a little? Svalbard still has a notable pool of way above average around it stopping any ice getting there for now.

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

With all this going on i can't help but think of a new low next year now. I'd liked to think we still have enough months to avoid this but i don't know anymore

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

The arctic just isn't that cold at the moment relatively speaking

2m temps in the arctic from the 10th

And 2m surface temps from today temps are on the up .

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13]

Snow holding firm in scandi just need a north easter now for some cold i reckon

Ice on the Alaskan, Canadian side finally shutting up shop.

Also the gfs projection of snow cover possibility for today. Immediately around us http://www.wetterpoo...gnosekarten.php

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Here's an interesting piece from October 28th mentions the gyre if anybody is interested.

http://www.universet...arctic-sea-ice/

NASA Satellite Sees Ghostly Remains of Vanishing Arctic Sea Ice

by Jason Major on October 28, 2012

34

Want to stay on top of all the space news? Follow @universetoday on Twitter

Sea ice swirls in ocean currents off the coast of Greenland (NASA/GSFC)

Spooky spectral swirls of last season’s sea ice drift in currents off the coast of eastern Greenland in this image from NASA’s Aqua satellite, acquired on October 17. Although sea ice in the Arctic will start forming again after September’s record low measurements, these ghostly wisps are likely made up of already-existing ice that has migrated south.

As global temperatures rise — both over land and in the ocean — thinner sea ice builds up during the Arctic winter and thus more of it melts during the summer, a pattern that will eventually lead to an ice-free Arctic if trends continue. The past several years saw sea ice in the Arctic below the 1979-2000 average, with this past September displaying the lowest volumes yet recorded.

The graph below, made from data modeled by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington, show the chilling — or, perhaps, not-so-chilling — results of this century’s recent observations.

Along Greenland’s east coast, the Fram Strait serves as an expressway for sea ice moving out of the Arctic Ocean. The movement of ice through the strait used to be offset by the growth of ice in the Beaufort Gyre.

Until the late 1990s, ice would persist in the gyre for years, growing thicker and more resistant to melt. Since the start of the twenty-first century, however, ice has been less likely to survive its trip through the southern part of the Beaufort Gyre. As a result, less Arctic sea ice has been able to pile up and form multi-year ice.

Thin, free-drifting ice — as seen above — moves very easily with winds and currents.

Aqua is a NASA Earth Science satellite mission named for the large amount of information that the mission is collecting about the Earth’s water cycle, including evaporation from the oceans, water vapor in the atmosphere, clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, sea ice, land ice, and snow cover on the land and ice. Aqua was launched on May 4, 2002, and carries six Earth-observing instruments in a near-polar low-Earth orbit. MODIS, which acquired the image above, is a 36-band spectroradiometer that measures physical properties of the atmosphere, oceans and land.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Graph by Jesse Allen based on modeled ice volume data from the Polar Science Center, University of Washington. Caption portions by Michon Scott with information from Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Read more: http://www.universet.../#ixzz2BugyGhhr

When the gyre was mentioned on here i wasn't truly sure what it actually was. Didn't realise it was a creator of the thick multiyear ice.

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

At least parts of the Arctic are shown to be thickening nicely

That map looks awfully like somebody has pulled a plug out and the thick ice is plunging away down it.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13]

Edit: Wrote something that didn't make sense, can i start the day again?

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13]

That's excellent, not seen this one before! Thanks

A few interesting postings from that map this winter me thinks!

Definitely; bookmarked already!

Welcome guys I was just randomly googling weather sites and found this graph on the side panel of the site linked lots of other headings to play with over there as well WetterPool - Prognosekarten (GFS) / Wetterkarten und Animation

According to that map, western Ireland has a few cm of snow..

Could be a dusting left in the mountains? from the snow we had not long ago? Because i notice cumbria and scotland is showing snow as well, all be it not much?

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13]

Here's a map of the areas immediately around us with snow and what i think is depth measurement figures.

WetterPool - Prognosekarten (GFS) / Wetterkarten und Animation

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

The Baffin Sea has cooled down now though, so hopefully we'll see some good growth there over the coming week. The Bering sea is looking good and cold too, so I still think this will bolster the extent during winter, dampen the effect of the low Barents and Kara.

The +ve air temp anomalies across Barents and Kara are beginning to look like Beaufort did the last month though, worse even.

My that is one heck of a stretch of plus 20 surface temp anom above russia and siberia Ridiculous in fact

Paltry, paltry, 75k gain on IJIS as of yesterday.

The latest value : 8,323,438 km² (November 9, 2012)

Current sst anoms from DMI http://ocean.dmi.dk/...te/index.uk.php

Current 2m Surface temps in the Arctic according to http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

Blue areas are below -20C.Just look how small that area is though?

Green areas are anything between +5c and -15c,+5 would be warm for a summer day,wouldn't it?

Current mean Arctic temps above 80n

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

Here is a better map showing temps in degrees C from http://www.wetterpoo...gnosekarten.php

Clearly shows the area of warmer air cutting straight through the Arctic with cold temps either side.

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

Updated chart of todays extent and concentration from IJIS Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

Since the sixth there has been a gradual reduction in ice from the kara, and even part of the arctic basin areas on our side of the world??. Ice still not touching svalbard either. Baffin expanding a little quicker now at least, hope it continues. looking at the sst anoms, they are in quite a distinct line, enveloping svalbard, kara and even part of the basin in a warm blanket of water.

While the uk has negative anoms around it in general?other than a negligable +1 around the irish sea.Any wonder i'm confused

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

seems to be the Atlantic side of the Arctic that is dragging its feet...this side and on the pacific side seems to have caught up...i blame all the hot air coming out of the winter and model output discussion topics on this forum that is doing all the damage!!!

I personally think the 'lull' is because the 'easy ice' (central pole and waters freshened with meltwater) have frozen and we are now left with problem areas?

Anyone looking at the negative anoms at C.T. will surely know why we are seeing them and for those looking for 'recovery' they might only be going to show that the changes forecast are real and happening in the basin today. I'm sure Beaufort will freeze over but how long a delay will the warm water there have cost it? how much warm water will still be left below the ice awaiting the first mixing of next melt season? How much ice thickness has the delay cost?

The same goes (again) for Baffin.

As for Barrentsz/Kara are they the sea areas already in the new ocean phase (awaiting the likes of Baffin ,Beaufort etc) with warm water allowing open water even in the polar dark of winter? The temp anoms on the islands on the russian side of Kara/Barrentsz just show what a difference this brings?

Also the pressure patterns around the basin sure look a bit odd with Greenland again at the thick of things? We have the magnetic pole headed one way and the 'polar vortex' the other?

Too much going on at the moment for me to grasp properly at the mo I suppose some people are taking a break from the thread, because of how depressing it is up there at the moment, and hope the next time they tune into the thread, things have improved, or at least on the face of it?. I'm just going to stick to posting the charts for now and see what you guys with more knowledge read in to them as i'm getting dizzy with it all

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

We'd also better hope that the NASA report saying 50% of the warming is being lost via particulate pollution (Global Dimming) is wrong and that the current 'cleanup' in Asia doesn't give a big boost to warming or that the low ice is causing circulation changes that favour ice loss or the healing ozone does not lead to rapid warming (and melt) in Antarctica by slowing the circumpolar winds/current there or that methane losses are not increasing due to high melt years?

All in all I think we need a miracle to undo what we have already introduced into the climate system esp. if some of the impacts are currently being hidden by the self same pollution at present.

We already see GHG levels last seen when oceans were 5m higher but wonder about where the 'missing heat' is. If that heat is currently being reflected away by pollution (i,e. the atmosphere is now primed to hold onto such temp levels) then any cleanup would surely lead to rapid warming up to the atmospheric 'balance point'?

Also the changes we have witnessed in the Arctic and Greenland occurred whilst the planet was 'dimmed' so what awaits once that dimming reduces?

Wish i had an answer I really do people seem to of given up on this thread for now but we still need to post reports.

Current sst Anom map from noaa http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

All i can see is wash of above average temps

And current sst's

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The latest IJIS value : 8,248,281 km² (November 8, 2012)

Seems to be dropping even further below average looking at the droop in that line?

And the nsidc chart http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

Dreadful our side just look at the space above norway?? and around svalbard,finally closing alaskan side?,and baffin slightly sorry for it's self.

Good to report Barrow iced up at least though

[Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)]

No we can't Q4P but this is how I feel? With mins, post 07' never going above the pre 07' record low why should the same not apply here? We came very close in 11' to taking the record with only an early end to the season saving the record. with such a massive margin from 2012 to 07's min there is plenty of room for 'bounce back' years (18% lower than 07' so plenty to 'bounce back' into without troubling 07'?).

I think we all accept that it would be dire indeed if we saw reductions 'year on year' and not the staggered reductions we see but it would appear that drops of 20% occur in record years these days?

That stops when the 3 million left is all at a similar thickness and melts out as fast as the bulk of the FY ice last Aug? At the end we will see a very rapid fall into the 'seasonal' sub 1 million mark and probably during Aug when melt is fastest due to both top and bottom melt being at play and large areas on the edge of 'melt out'.

Hi GrayWolf "In the short term at least" should of been added to the end of my last post

Alas I do see the ice dwindling more and more in front of my eyes, I can see that, wondering how the polar bears etc are getting on in their new landscape. At the same time thinking to myself maybe next year,or the next or the next, there will be better conditions,admittedly being disappointed with a new record min being hit, year on year . I suppose were getting towards the amount of loss, that if it continues will end up with a point, where the amount of open sea(in the summer), will be too vast and be soaking up the 24hr sun even more and so will override any natural balancing forces regardless? Short of another tilt on the axis of the earth that is . Having hope isn't necessarily being blind,but without it what do we have?. We would be stupid not to accept what is happening before our eyes and choose to ignore it? I see that all to graphically . The feeling of powerlessness to do anything about the situation is quite awful. Therefore, all us non governmental people can do, is hope?