quest4peace
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Fram is just doing what Fram does it's the rest of the Basin that appears to have changed!
This is why I get so aggitated when folk speak of recovery. I can only imagine all they see of ther arctic is a 2 dimensional world of ice extent/Area and nothing else?
We first saw Barentsz and Kara move from areas that held and nurtured Paleocryistic ice into areas that actively destroyed such ice to areas that started not even holding ice over winter anymore. We now see Beaufort, and it's Grye, that used to nurtures Paleocryistic ice now actively destroying it and having no ice left at all come summers end. We even now see a delay in re-freeze there (is it headed the same way as Barentsz/Kara?). We see Baffin ice free over summer and reduced ice over winter, East Siberian? reduced ice over summer , the list goes on.
The ice is now so young and weak that an 'average summer' can knock the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season for six!!!
The only area left is the north shore of Greenland and the 'compression ice' that rucks up there but we saw over 3m thickness of ice disappear there this past Aug so what is driving that monumental loss?
All I can do now is sit and watch. My worse fears (as voiced on here over the years) are made real and I dare not 'project' any more lest it also comes true. I've had my 'Doomsayer' label too long to face another round of that only to be proven right again!!!
So fram can be taken off the guilty list
I always write everything as a question if I can i kind of understand what you mean about you seemingly getting heckled, at every point, and the quote from a song that's apt is "They all laughed at christopher columbus, when he said the world was round" comes to mind.Unfortunately i don't know enough to say who i think is wrong and who is right, but you were always pointing out the loss of the thick ancient ice. I'm sure you take no satisfaction in the fact we have lost such resources, and just stick to what you believe/understand?,which is admirable in the face of adversity.I have now got used to understanding where the ice should be, multi and first year ice and ideal max extents/area/thickness's and mins etc.. from the various sites and comments on here. And also that for some reason, sst's are badly affecting freeze areas. Still a lot for me to learn, as there seems to be a dizzying amount of variables but I'm getting there slowly.Mean while the sea ice has enveloped Barrow a lot more today
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We will lose some of the 'survived one melt' over winter via Fram and more of it will shuffle toward Fram for summer. Fram is the Joker in the pack as no matter how old or thick you are you will melt if flushed into the Atlantic.
I firmly believe that Albedo Flip is now firmly in control of the ice loss in the Arctic/Greenland and also the permafrost melt. If I am correct then this has big implications for sea level rise.
Latest research show that ice melt from Greenland/Antarctica took only a couple of hundred years to plump up the ocean by 10m in the last warm interglacial.
That rise in sea level was without the help of the Carbon we have now released into the system in fact the carbon that enabled this feat is still locked away in our permafrosts and below our ice sheets ( ready to emerge and be added into the system) but we are already at the levels that drove that rapid melt and sea level hikes .
How will this currently frozen element of the warm interglacial carbon cycle further impact melt rates? Are we looking at decades to melt out the ice sheets once we go significantly beyond todays GHG levels?
Fram really is messing things up at the moment then?, as far as remaining thick ice goes
If only we could stop losing the ice in this way, there would be a chance of maintaining what's left? and in better years even creating a larger area of thicker once again? Thus increasing radiation of heat back skyward. But Im only wishing really. Also would losing the permafrost leave these areas more prone to erosion? -
Current sea ice area anom at 1.78 million now
And definite sea ice at Barrow now, as mentioned earlier in the thread. Not a totally solid cover but nice to see regardless and not amazingly far from average, if you go by the 5th nov as the average day.
And looking at todays extent and concentration from AMSR2 Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor
on IJIS it's Barent's,Kara and Baffin that i would say is the main culprits now extent wise these areas looking particularly bad, as beaufort seems to be finally getting close to sealing up now?
Anomaly chart from nsidc.http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ red lines show how far away from normal we are on our side of the arctic and in Baffin
One last Map the current age of the areas of ice as of todays extent
Dark blue: Nilas Ice 0-10cm
Pink: Young ice 10-30cm
Green:First year ice 30-200cm
Brown: Survived at least one summers melt
And light Blue: Ice free
Will the brown area be next years min?
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Not looking brilliant still thenThere is limited data but the recent average freeze-up date is 5th November.
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Nice to see the anoms still ahead of 2010 snow-wise make me feel more positiveHoping that the lull will get a reload before Christmas and that Winter uk 2012 will give winter 2010 a run for its money, we did not know what was to come three weeks later then and the weather can still surprise us now. Snow cover still far more positive and we have had early uk snow and cold which gets a big thumbs up in my book, if this buildup was coming off a series of very mild winters there would be more smiles on faces!
Could we have another Dec this year like back then i wonder?
Lol!Looks like the 'little ice age' has already started
Seriously, it's amazing to see so much snow about so early, it's as if the lack of ice up north, has thrown the polar winds into turmoil, allowing all the cold to spill out southward.
And with a slightly warmer planet, more water vapour = more snow, which with time, will cool the planet back into a comfortable ice age *sighs* I love it when a plan comes together
Nice to see some at last though and mighty coldStill only very thin ice at Barrow - see the radar and webcam timelapse videos here http://seaice.alaska...s/barrow_webcam - the freeze does appear to happen overnight on evening of 4/11 though it coincided with a spell of relative calm after wind and high seas, and snowfall which helped its formation and made it visible..
The ice doesn't show on the sea ice radar yet and is mobile, moving about in the current. Once it is properly formed it will be anchored to the shoreline.
Did i read right it doesn't normally ice over till December on average anyway?
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http://uk.weather.co...Barrow-USAK0025
I'm currently pointing at barrow because of the anomalous warmth in that area recently.-23 is the current temp there now
After being so stupidly mild for so long,that's more like it surely? Snow has receded somewhat by the looks of it but i'm hoping only a temporary lull
Current northern hemisphere snow and ice from NOAA as of yesterday.
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The other thing of concern for me is the possibility of new surface currents establishing and growing more invasive as time passes. If we do see an extension of the N.A.D., further and further into the basin proper (into Barrentsz and Kara) then over time it will allow both mixing and invite warmer , moister air masses along with it.
I think we are seeing just this and it means warmer waters up coastal Greenland and ever deeper penetration of warmer waters into the basin in turn leaving more and more areas depleted of ice over winter.
The other Worry is the possible summer extension, once surface waters are sun warmed and so reduce cooling of the current, into the Russian coast and deflection into the new 'Laptev Bite'. This feature, apart from heading ever poleward, if extended would split the late Aug Pack into 2 and even bathe the N. Shore of Greenland (our only ice nursery now) in warm surface water. If you want a mechanism to finish off the last of the ice we may have seen it birthing over the last 3 years?
Add to that the thermal expansion of the sea water, and melt off from Greenland, and sea level rise rears it's ugly head?
http://www.huffingto..._n_1942666.html
Arctic Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise May Pose Imminent Threat To Island Nations, Climate Scientist Says
The Huffington Post | By James Gerken Posted: 05/10/2012 4:39 pm
This Sept. 16, 2012, image released by NASA shows the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic, at center in white, and the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the day shown, with the yellow line. Scientists say sea ice in the Arctic shrank to an all-time low of 1.32 million square miles on Sept. 16, smashing old records for the critical climate indicator. (AP Photo/U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, File)
Low-lying island nations threatened by rising sea levels this century could see the disastrous consequences of climate change far sooner than expected, according to one of the world's leading climate scientists.
In the wake of last month's discovery that the extent of Arctic sea ice coverage hit a record low this year, climate scientist Michael Mann told the Guardian that "Island nations that have considered the possibility of evacuation at some point, like Tuvalu, may have to be contending those sort of decisions within the matter of a decade or so."
Mann, who is the director of Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center, said that current melting trends show sea ice is "declining faster than the models predict."
"The models have typically predicted that will not happen for decades but the measurements that are coming in tell us it is already happening so once again we are decades ahead of schedule," Mann told the Guardian.
This year's record melting, which occurred under more "normal" conditions than the previous record set in 2007, left Arctic sea ice at a minimum "nearly 50 percent lower than the average ... for the years 1979-2000," according to Climate Central.
Rapidly decreasing sea ice suggests that the melting of polar ice sheets may occur more rapidly than previously predicted. Mann explained to the Guardian that "we [will] really start to see sea level rises accelerate," as the Greenland and the west Antarctic ice sheets disappear. Unlike with the melting of sea ice, these ice sheets would introduce vast quantities of water into the world's oceans, making them "critical from the standpoint of sea level rise," according to Mann.
The ongoing rise in average global temperatures, which has accelerated Arctic ice melt, has been largely attributed to the burning of fossil fuels and the resultant increase in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
For the most vulnerable island nations, like the Maldives, Kiribati, the Torres Strait Islands and many others, rising seas will bring significant coastal erosion and saltwater contamination of limited freshwater supplies. Environmental group Oceana recently noted that nations dependent upon the sea will face food security threats as greater temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increase ocean acidity and put marine life at risk.
Despite the increasingly clear picture painted by scientific observations and climate modeling, "There's a huge gap between what is understood by the scientific community and what is known by the public," according to NASA scientist James Hansen. Recent polling suggests that as much as 35 percent of the U.S. population and 37 percent of the British public remain unconvinced of the scientific reality of climate change.
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This might help ya Q4P.
Cheers BFTV quite sobering
a new record average min line every 4 years?? A difference of 3.5 million over all, is quite heavy going by any stretch, just think how 2012's line would look on IJIS with 90's and 00's lines removed mind blowing. -
When you look at the fact the "average", 10 year mins have got lower and lower, we are seeing a new record average min each decade. So even if we went back to the average 00's min line, in the next few years (doesn't look like it),we would in reality still be in a shocking state, because that would still be a record average level of minimum. We haven't even managed the 00's min line over the past few years on a single years extent, and are currently way below even that?? New average record min line for 2010's decade i'm thinking
So maybe somebody could put up a graph, just showing the 80's average minimum extent line, and see how drastically below the 80's benchmark we are. I think it would make people see, how far from healthy we really are at moment,certainly brings it homeP.s that might need some deciphering lol! but i think you will get the idea of what i'm saying
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Barrow research is reporting 9/10 cover of new ice (frazil, grease, slush) - not solid yet, sea temperature -2.3°c
The sea ice radar shows no ice in the vicinity - see here for the radar and all things Barrow sea ice http://seaice.alaska...es/barrow_radar
Must confess I thought Barrow wasn't going to get ice of any kind for a long time yet, considering how slow formation has been around that area. Good there are signs of ice formation now, which is something at least.
Very big jump for the IJIS extent +171k, but it still leaves us 581k behind 2007.
It seems much of the gain came from growth in the Beaufort sea, so finally some progress there. Perhaps a rapid refreeze in that area over the coming days will take us to within 200k of lowest 2nd lowest on record.
The worrying thing about this, is that Beaufort showed what problems we can expect in areas of the high Arctic have open water by June, the heat they can accrue and the time needed for that surface heat (at least) to dissipate and allow for regrowth.
The entire Beaufort sea is normally close to being completely frozen over by now, yet we're only just beginning to freeze.
Really bad
I'd like to think going back above 2007 at least would be possible still. No matter how dour that still will be -
Not sure how significant it is for the sea ice in the area, but Barrow in alaska Is currently -20c according to
http://uk.weather.co...Barrow-USAK0025
And latest webcam picture
hint of ice in the sea? or just fog? -
EDIT: Q4P, folk who have learned, via necessity, on the board will always welcome anyone open to listen to their understanding/logic on the subject. No -one will seek to put anyone down who is not expected to 'know better'. On occasion some of the more regular posters do become annoying by posting up silly things that are either 1 liners for effect or troll puke from elsewhere (IMHO) but I'm sure any Lurker who takes the plunge and posts will be warmly welcomed and given all the info the 'regulars' posses. The more minds working on the problem the more chance of stumbling across a common sense solution.
You've always been very accomodating too, along with the other regulars and fellow newbies, thank you
I'm getting a much better understanding, of what goes on up north now, but at the same time, i know there is a mind boggling amount more to learn I find yours,BFTV, and others posts helpful and always willing to answer any questions I have no matter how back to front they are Lol!I work as part of a Voluntary Environmental charity, we go around local conservation areas and help local woodlands and other areas of protected status, so i'm really into what is happening around the planet
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I have to say, that's one of the most refreshing and sensible posts I've seen in quite a while here.
It's so unusual in this area for someone to simply say they don't know enough about a topic and so will try learn more about it before commenting.
If only more people took your approach!
Thanks BFTV
I always see these forums as being in existence to inform people, and I feel i have learn't more than i would of known otherwise off a lot of you guys I just think it becomes a competition, between who knows best on here sometimes, and people forget that some members join, only having had a recent interest in things affecting our planet and are put off posting because they dont want to look daft. -
i watched this thinking it would be interesting..but found it pretty poor and the over the top dramatics just made things worse..like when they were diving in the lake the lake could drain at any time so we have attached life lines to the divers..no sh*t einstein..and it seems the sea it self could be another cause for the calving of icebergs..no really?..water flowing to the bottom of the glacier and gravity seem to be the cause of why the glacier is moving..id never have guessed?..and whats the doc doing there?..i know lets do an experiment as to why mosquitoes bite more people than others..now your just wasting my time!!
Glad to see you liked it so much lol! I think it was quite interesting for people who may be new to all things arctic, and might get a few more lay people on board in the population?
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A lot of folk , more hesitant to accept AGW, put a lot of effort into insisting that this years 97% melt across Greenland was a long cycle rare event. A repeat of the same next year would raise a lot of questions about that view.
With the dust layer on the 'old surface' now a year darker then any melt out of this winters snow is going to reveal this blackened surface to the sun.
Not only are the flanks of the ice sheet becoming ever darker but the 'ice line' is also moving upslope revealing bedrock over summer. The rapid melt of thickness to the ice north of Greenland may well be being influenced by the warming of both the air and the rock surface (and the heat transfer into the shallow coastal waters.
The north shore of Greenland is now the only place where we get thick ice so any impact to that reserve is important. The 'Seasonal Pack' of 1 million sq km is meant to have an element of ice along Greenland's north Shore so if this coast turns into a heat source for the shallow waters around then we can even kiss goodbye to this last hiding place for the ice!
Don't know if you have seen the "Operation Iceberg" program on bbc 2, after Autumn watch?, but they are at a a different part of greenland and the arctic each episode. Anyway, it was showing how the glaciers carve their icebergs and the fact that they are being sped up by surface melt and lubrication from water draining from these melt pools. Also they measured the different water temps around the glacier, and found that although on the whole the water temps were averaging a constant -1.5C around the glacier, there was a thin layer of relatively water from the atlantic, melting the ice through the middle, causing a shelf of undercut ice. This was found to accelerate berging and thus loss of ice. One of the famous "bergs" they were filming was the peterman ice berg, that broke free from greenland 2 years ago and still going strong in the ocean (Baffin?). The core even after 2 years adrift still had a core temp of -13c only a +3 climb from when it was first carved and is 3km across and 100m thick. Recommend watching.
http://www.guardian....ent-frozen-time
The BBC's Operation Iceberg captures a brief moment frozen in time
A summer spent filming a gigantic iceberg offered an incredible insight into the life and death of these Arctic fortresses
- Monday 29 October 2012 17.00 GMT
Helen Czerski on the Petermann ice island with the crew's ship in the background.
Imagine a solid sheet of frozen water 3km across and 100m thick. Imagine it floating quietly in dark ocean waters, somewhere between Canada and Greenland. Imagine the desolation of the Arctic environment around it, getting harsher as winter approaches. The only sound comes from water lapping against the ice, and a lone seal swimming nearby. Imagine this forbidding, serene, massive place. But it really exists. This iceberg is at 69.2N, 65.6W right now, floating in peace as we all go about our busy, bustling lives filled with people and cars and telephones and decisions. It's one of the Petermann ice islands, and three months ago I was there, helping to study and film it for BBC2's Operation Iceberg.
Back in the summer, things were different. This iceberg was a dynamic battleground, floodlit by 24-hour daylight. Once an iceberg is released from its parent glacier, its time is very limited. The ice is fighting a losing battle along its edges, as warm ocean water eats into it and then mini-bergs break off the weakened front. These break-up events were sudden, loud and violent. We had come to spectate on this oceanic siege, and to learn its rules. Our home was a small research ship, minuscule in comparison to the impregnable ice fortress.
The ice edge towered over us, vertical, angular and utterly spectacular. We steamed around the berg until we found lower cliffs, and suddenly the icescape behind was revealed. It looked like a mini version of the South Downs, carved into ice. Gentle mounds were separated by valleys, and these led down to waterfalls of meltwater cascading into the ocean. The iceberg made its own fog, so we could only see a little way into the centre. We sailed round it, living life just on the wrong side of the edge, and peering hopefully over the top of the cliffs like a dog eyeing up a loaded dinner table.
Curious polar bears peered back. We had thought we would be lucky to see one or two, but the iceberg turned out to have a healthy population of these huge carnivores. The summer is a lean time for them, as they wait for the sea ice to come back so that they can hunt. So they were snoozing away, not at all bothered that their chosen holiday home was moving, tilting, melting, breaking up and giving a TV production team and some scientists severe logistical headaches.
That's how I remember the iceberg, and that's the side of it you'll see if you watch the programmes. But since then things have changed. We left a GPS tracker as a passenger, so we know that the iceberg has travelled 60 miles, and is now about 30 miles south of where it was in August. It has done a few pirouettes, and only 65% of it is left. The battle has taken its toll. The iceberg only gets seven hours and 40 minutes of daylight now, and soon the darkness will swallow it up completely. Since the supply of energy from the sun is so weak, the siege is over for this year. A winter respite is beginning.
Sea ice is advancing towards the berg from the north. This is the other type of ice at the poles, formed when the sea surface itself freezes. It's fascinating stuff, because the salt is mostly squeezed out as it freezes, so sea ice is almost fresh. It starts as fragile platelets, and thickens as the water temperature drops. In an average year (out of the last 30 years), the sea ice would already have reached our iceberg. But this year, there was less summer sea ice in the Arctic than any other year on record, so it is taking longer for the great freeze to reach 69N. The sea ice is still crawling south, and when it touches the cliffs I saw, it will connect our iceberg to all the other ice in the Arctic. The iceberg will be frozen in place. Darkness and silence will rule. The bears will be able to walk out on to the sea ice and hunt again.
In the middle of one of my typical frantic workdays, I enjoy imagining where "our" iceberg is now. I have a giant map of the world on my office wall, and it reminds me that the whole planet is accessible to a drop of water. After all, every ocean is connected to all other oceans. This iceberg is just ocean that has been in cold storage for a few thousand years. It is two years since it broke off from its parent glacier, and now we know it will last at least one more year as solid ice. But it will lose the battle in the end. Energy from the sun will free the water molecules and one day the last piece of solid ice will melt to a water drop.
That drop could end up almost anywhere – as mist in a Costa Rican cloud forest, as a cup of tea in China, inside an Olympic athlete or in a puddle in Dorset. The coffee you're drinking as you read this could have been part of an iceberg once. And now it's going to become part of you. Isn't that fantastic?
- Monday 29 October 2012 17.00 GMT
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With the really poor ice increase coupled with the high SST anomalies we are not likely to have much ice during the summer.
What makes this scary also is the fact that Greenland's ability to reflect sunlight is excepted to drop straight down to zero and thus with all the heat from the sun being absorbed, there is little to no hope for the ice cap in the Arctic.
Hi Gagerg more positive predictions from NASA i see
I don't know enough about what's happening in greenland to be fair, need to look into it. But this years autumn levels are astonishing to me, that is for certain. As for next years min, who know's? but another record low next year and the affect that could have, is daunting. -
Haven't looked for a while but can't be much of an increase. The line is unprecedented now for this time of year drifted quite a way below 2007 now
http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm
The latest value : 7,688,438 km2 (November 1, 2012)
Barents and Kara looking rather sorry and combined with Beaufort and most of the canadian side it's rather dismal and worrying
Ice extent and concentration map from Amsr2 on IJIS
sst anoms
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/
Just look at the anoms on our side too now
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Edit: repeat post.
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Nice to see the siberian side mostly sealed up now
Ice creeping very slowly towards Canada and Alaska now, thought if i didn't look for a few days it would make a bit more progress but nope -
Think we might need several hot water bottles this winter if 2010 is used as a comparisonyet more snow cover! very different to any other year that's available on the noaa charts
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Hi HarveFirstly, Vladivostok isn't really part of Siberia. And more importantly, it's ridiculous to say that 12c is twice as warm as 6c: 0c isn't absolute zero! Is 0.2c twice as warm as 0.1c, is it going to make you feel twice as warm?
It's more or less on the south eastern border of Siberia and also borders with China and North Korea to be exact 0.2 is twice 0.1 by the way. But you are right however saying you wouldn't feel any warmer with such a small difference .Also 12c is indeed twice as warm as 6c by anybody's working ,2 x 6 =12 so not ridiculous at all
absolute zero is −270 °C by the way -
Scotland does look rather cold and snowy for our time of year at least currently 8c in Tyndrum in the highlands and 5c in Aberdeen ScotlandBlimey, there's a statement open to interpretation.
Considering some parts of Siberia are mighty cold and snowy at the moment seems slightly ott to be fair Also 13C in Vladivostok isn't that balmy either is it? i think it's their average October temp anyway seeing as they are near the Korean/ Russia/ China border? -
Doesn't take much guessing what is causing this new low from yesterdays Amsr2 map. Usual culprit this year Canada/Alaska.
http://www.ijis.iarc...ice-monitor.cgi
Yesterdays extent and concentration 26th Oct 2012
Just look at 2007's extent and area at the same date though??? Canada/ Alaska Aside, the ice is in better condition this year more centrally? Open water was still a lot closer to the pole in 2007.
2007's extent and concentration for the same date.
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http://www.dailyreco...-batter-1401869
Scotland skips autumn as snow blizzards batter parts of the country
THE Met Office have issued a severe winter weather warning, with forecasters predicting up to two inches of snow in eastern and northern Scotland.IN one photo we have picture postcard scenery and glorious blues skies as Scotland puts on its best autumnal face.
But just 69 miles away, a mum shivers in bone-chilling temperatures as she battles to push her baby’s buggy through a ferocious blizzard.
There could be no better example of our country’s crazy weather.
In Pitlochry, where the landscape was at its most beautiful, the temperature rose above 10C yesterday.Temperatures rose above 10C in Pitlochry
But in Aberdeen the mercury struggled to stay above freezing and biting north west winds made it feel like minus five as residents endured a white hell of snow and ice.
Twitter users reported blizzards and “completely covered†cars and trees in the Silver City.
Elsewhere, with temperatures barely hitting 6C in the Central Belt and 5C farther north, Scotland was TWICE as cold as parts of Siberia, with temperatures in Vladivostock soaring to a balmy 13C.
And 24 hours before British Summer Time ends tonight, the Met Office issued a severe winter weather alert, forecasting up to two inches of snow in eastern and northern Scotland, plus sleet and hail.
Met Office forecaster Charlie Powell said: “We’re expecting 2-5cm of Friday night snow in Aberdeen and northern Scotland.
“Western Scotland could see hill snow on Saturday lunchtime.â€
I always write everything as a question if I can 
If only we could stop losing the ice in this way, there would be a chance of maintaining what's left? and in better years even creating a larger area of thicker once again? Thus increasing radiation of heat back skyward. But Im only wishing really. Also would losing the permafrost leave these areas more prone to erosion?
Could we have another Dec this year like back then i wonder?
a new record average min line every 4 years?? 
A difference of 3.5 million over all, is quite heavy going by any stretch, just think how 2012's line would look on IJIS with 90's and 00's lines removed 
mind blowing.
I'd like to think going back above 2007 at least would be possible still. No matter how dour that still will be
I always see these forums as being in existence to inform people, and I feel i have learn't more than i would of known otherwise off a lot of you guys 
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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by quest4peace
Can we absolutely come to the conclusion 2007 will never be reached again though?