quest4peace
-
Posts
263 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by quest4peace
-
-
Seems I may have been quite wrong the other day!
NSIDC has updated with a 14k loss on the 25th. This means we are now 340k below 2011, and just 82k above 2007.
It's got to be the Canadian/Alaska side that has slowed us down, now that the Siberian side is nearly totally closed up with ice? hope it's only a blip, as we'll be below 2007 again and lowest on record once more. Come on Beaufort and Baffin!! buck your ideas up.
-
Considering how far below we where I am very impressed with the fact that we are where we are. As long as in the short term the ice can continue to rebuild I wouldn't in the short term be to concerned if we dipped below 2007 for a period. Its the state we arrive at time of melt that matters and if we can have thicker more extensive ice all the better
Hi jonboy
Dipping below 2007 will still be lowest on record for the time of year though unfortunately, which is not good. A return to anything but normal, in both extent and depth is really bad. With higher ssts come the end of summer, because of open water, the ice will take longer to refreeze in those areas.Thinner ice obviously takes a lot less to melt out. We still have the open water on the canadian side of the arctic as well at the moment, which is making less and less time for it to thicken, when it finally does freeze over. It's seems no matter how low we go at the minimum it will always rebound extent wise?, at least for now?. It's the depth and thickness of the ice, that is the main problem and is in a seeming doom spiral, leading to the forecasts of a nearly ice free minimum in the future. Outlooks quite cheerful then -
Tiny rise of 27K?? on latest update over yesterdays report, we'll be back below 2007 at this rate.
The latest value : 7,112,031 km2 (October 25, 2012)
-
Ice seems to of either slowed down or just simply running along 2007/2011's line at the moment even ducking down below 2011 a little bit maybe?
The latest value : 7,085,000 km2 (October 24, 2012)
Also Yesterdays Amsr2 image of concentration and extent
Canada side not moving much, and the siberian sides rapid closing up seems to of slowed a bit some gains around C.A?
http://www.ijis.iarc...ice-monitor.cgi
Also fascinating to see the darkness slowly enveloping the earth and Arctic, with the south pole getting more permanently light, and the arctic area either permanently dark or getting towards their twilight time of year
http://www.timeandda...k/sunearth.html
This is a real time snapshot of where the night and day is, at either pole as of 1 hour ago
northern pole permamantly dark, hence the increase up there and just a small area of Antarctica still in darkness with the rest in permanant light If you enlarge the picture you'll get a good idea.As of 16:06 today 25th oct 2012.
-
That would be my winter retreat if i won the lottery beautiful places in winterLooking very wintry now in N.E.Lappland, with more snow over the last few hours and more expected during the day.
http://www2.liikenne...a-C1450401.html
http://www2.liikenne...a-C1452201.html
http://en.ilmatietee...-and-cloudiness
Nice shots of some ice forming on some of the lakes here.
http://www2.liikenne...a-C1454001.html
http://www2.liikenne...a-C1451201.html
Regards,
Tom
Cool link thanks 4wd
When i clicked it, i thought it would be a static webcam pic, but it's live a car just drove past Here is a still from literally seconds ago -
Alaska and northwest Canada seem to be suffering a negative anom meanwhile snow-wise. Wonder how the ice trucking season will fair this year in yellow knife?
Also a nice shot from svalbard today
Still hanging on to some light by the looks of it From Zeppelin Station, Ny-Ã¥lesund.
-
Those positive anomalies over the Beaufort Sea still climbing...
That anom is something quite amazing
Looking at the Amsr2 map on the Ijis site, while the siberian side is closed/is closing up the Canada/Alaska half has receded slightly, no wonder?.P.s also not sure if it's just because it's still updating, but the siberian increase has slowed quite noticeably as well. Looking at the wind pattern for the whole arctic there seems to be northeasterly winds over C.A and that part of Canada today, and some southerly direction winds over the Siberian side?
Click the link and have a play with the overlays.
-
Snow explosion!! filled in nicely
-
A big Kite and a snowboard!
Like it lol!
Gap is really closing on the siberian side now, look at the difference in one day
Alaskan side still not really changing though, not looking brilliant in that area still. I do however see a hint of ice on the alaska/canadian coasts.21st october
22nd of october Today
To get the best view of the increase check the site out and flick between the two images
-
If the Ice Agers are to be believed, it won't be long until the sea freezes up around the UK
Trips to norway and europe would be cheaper, just rent our own skidoo snowmobiles Lol!
-
The large extent increases continue on IJIS, with a 177,188km2 jump yesterday up to 6,610,469km2. With both 2011 and 2007 less than 100k behind, there can be no slow down if we want to finish the month anything other than lowest on record.
Wow
getting quite a head of steam up now, 2008 had quite a sharp uprise after 2007's low extent as well maybe no coincidence?.It makes the data or their reconstruction of the data questionable. No doubt they'll sort it out..... Probably with the same technique that they sort other figures out with..............
*I know, I know... Baaaaad Potty......
I was thinking the same, especially as we don't get sst's that cold in the north sea ever, even when we got down to -20 in 2010, in the depths of winter
never mind October I'm sticking to IJIS and nsidc for now . -
I think the average daily temperature for the CET zone is in the high 9s (so max of 14C, min of 5.5C or so) at this time of year, so sticking say 18C on top of that gives a daily average of 27C (Max ~36, Min of ~18), which would be an all time daily record high.
Higher latitudes often experience much larger swings in temperature than us, so the comparison isn't really fair.
Sobering
There are much more variables, that affect the arctic, then i ever imagined, before i read the posts on here. -
Could certainly be higher than 2007 next year, but could equally be lower than this years minimum. The volume by March should give an indication as to which is more likely.
Some very high surface air temperature anomalies once more over the Beaufort/Chukchi seas, with a 17.5-20C anomaly in parts yesterday.
To put that into a daunting perspective, if the uk had that anom all autumn it would be like being in the mid 20's to low 30's c all autumn,is that right?
-
Did you notice the low ice concentrations on the East coast of the UK??
I was just looking at that as well Lol!
I think they have some gremlins in their data, it's showing 16%-21% ice concentration Sst's are ranging 11c in north and15c on south coast still here Here's a map showing the sst's from this week around the uk .http://www.bsh.de/en...tures/index.jsp
Also arctic ssts from yesterday
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/
-
With the forecast for next weekend turning cold for the UK, it will give this side of the Arctic a chance to see some sustained ice growth.
Hope so
Looking pretty chilly too when it comes Be nice to get some frosty mornings to go out in when i'm working outdoors MMAB Sea Ice Concentration -- Northern Hemisphere high resolution
Figure Constructed 21 October 2012 00 UTC cycle
Valid Time 21 October 2012 00 UTC
http://polar.ncep.no...analysis/nh.xml
Can clearly see the ice, that is holding back the area reading on that map,some lesser pieces of ice between the slightly thicker pieces
There is a line of not so thick ice running from near the Alaska end to north of svalbard as well?P.s funny that it's showing 16%-21% ice around the uk though
-
How long can the large daily gains go on for? NSIDC had yet another double century gain yesterday of 203k, to take this past 2011 also.
If 2012 wants to stay ahead of 2007 and 2011, it will have to keep up these very high growth rates, as the final 11 days both those years averaged daily gains of 188k/day and 186k/day repectively
Quite unbelievable really
And i would bet it's defying the predictions of a lot of people on here. I know that the area and depth, will be "most" important at the end of this coming winter, as far as melt out is concerned,so i'm not blinkering myself, or being in denial about all this, i'm merely speculating But, is it out of the question, that we could have a better minimum next year? Even if it's only slighter better than 2007 say? it would be a start at least. -
I think we may see the sea ice completely seal up against the Siberian coast over the next week, but continued mild southerlies over the Beaufort sea my really slow down any ice growth here. There area anomaly for the Beaufort sea is already joint lowest on record, so the longer we go without ice growth, the greater the record anomaly will become and the thinner the ice will likely be by come next March.
18 days so far this month with the average anomaly over the Beaufort sea in the +ve low teens.
Be good to see the russian side seal up at last
With anomalies so high near canada, is europe going to get some of the cold Canada would normally have again this year, because of cold air displacement? like December 2010?. It makes me wonder how much longer it will be, before places like barrow get their sea ice arrive? Could be the fly in the ointment next melt season then. Gives with one hand and takes with the other. -
Nice to see the ice and snow starting to fill in around siberia
But you can see the drastic effect the warmer ssts around Alaska and Canada have had.Also a nice shot from svalbard today looking very seasonal
Not quite total darkness up there yet Also just for a cold fix
Summit in greenland is currently -46c with a night time temp of -54c for tuesday night there!!-
1
-
-
Specasavers indeed.
If anyone is having trouble reading a graph - as BFTV provided here's the raw data:
1990s average minima is 6,426,100km2
Current extent is 6,288,400km2
I only posted this becasue it is so shocking, unbelievable, scary, astonishing... In less than twenty years this Is what has happened: It now.takes until the end of October to reach the point that used to be the average minimum at the height of summer
We are very "close" to the 90's average "September" MIN extent though, so some people are just nit picking, if it carries on with strong rises , we shall breach the average 90's "min" as well very soon, all be it a whole month behind of course
We are above the 2000's Minimum though Technically we should be above all min extents by now in a "normal" year? Sad reflection on how much ice has been lost.Extent and concentration map from yesterday's date
Nice to see the ice starting to enclose in on siberia. can't help thinking sst's are stopping this area being totally filled by now as well Also, an obvious lack of ice due to the summers high sst's around Alaska and Canada at the mo. Also you can blatantly see the areas of thinner ice that need to thicken up a bit as it's still looking more like a jigsaw puzzle at the moment.Couldn't post todays map, as it is still updating but looks like a little bit more filling going on with regards to the russian side on todays.
-
IJIS has updated, with yesterday's gain increased to 166k and today's increase down as 183k, which means we've now passed 2011.
The graph below shows the shows the average daily gains for the 1st-20th in blue, the 10th to the 20th in orange and the 21st to 31st in red. What's interesting is the -ve correlation between extent increases between the 1-20th (blue) and 21st to 31st (red), which indicates that if you have a high rate of increase in the first 20 days, it will likely be low for the remainder of the month and vice versa.
EDIT: We've now passed the 90s average, by 7k.
Good to be above 2011 now. But can't believe a month later than the average min date we are still aiming to catch the lowest extents of some years
-
No - think some people need to go to spec savers or learn how to read a basic graph and associated chart key.
Nope just a strong coffee
It is sunday morning you know -
That graph shows I am right Keith! As do the figures that BFTV posted. Not sure why you're not understanding this? The red line is 2012, i.e.now and the middle of the three grey dotted lines (the one that's medium shaded) is the average for the 1990s.
It is clearly above the average "September" Minimum for the 00's not the 90's
Without my morning cup of tea i thought it i saw it above the 90's line too. -
Edit: sorry for some reason I keep posting twice
-
Pretty much bang on with 2011 now
Can we go higher? or will it settle down and follow 2011's line?I notice 2007 and 2011's line was pretty much the same from now on for a while.
The latest IJIS value : 6,219,375 km2 (October 19, 2012)
Dipping below 2007 will still be lowest on record for the time of year though unfortunately, which is not good. A return to anything but normal, in both extent and depth is really bad. With higher ssts come the end of summer, because of open water, the ice will take longer to refreeze in those areas.Thinner ice obviously takes a lot less to melt out. We still have the open water on the canadian side of the arctic as well at the moment, which is making less and less time for it to thicken, when it finally does freeze over. It's seems no matter how low we go at the minimum it will always rebound extent wise?, at least for now?. It's the depth and thickness of the ice, that is the main problem and is in a seeming doom spiral, leading to the forecasts of a nearly ice free minimum in the future. Outlooks quite cheerful then 
Looking at the Amsr2 map on the Ijis site, while the siberian side is closed/is closing up the Canada/Alaska half has receded slightly, no wonder?.
There are much more variables, that affect the arctic, then i ever imagined, before i read the posts on here.
Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
in Climate Change
Posted · Edited by quest4peace
Not totally lost it seems then
Let's hope it's just a minor lull, but i like the idea of all that cold arriving maybe it will equalize things again 
Just when i think i've picked an opinion to stick with, I get pulled one way and then the other
I suppose we should bear in mind that when we had 2007's low extent, people were instantly saying ice would not go above that level again (at the minimum) and that cold winters were a thing of the past 
As if to prove us all wrong 2008 had a really good extent recovery and we had the coldest winter temperatures in 100 years in 2010 
P.s We still have less multi year ice than 2007 though at the moment, and we have just had a new record extent and area min this year