cobbett
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Posts posted by cobbett
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Odd choice of word on the Meto warning
Heavy snow showers are expected on Wednesday. There is the potential for travel delays on roads, with some stranded vehicles and passengers,
and passengers ? Well I suppose you could have a stranded vehicle without passengers after they've left before being stranded or.maybe it means that the passengers can't walk after being left stranded due to their car being stranded - hmm i must be bored - need to get outside
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Hmm looks like snow to rain next weekend for SE viewing 6z and of course told friends and family about the possible mega dumping last night - I never learn
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1 minute ago, Surrey said:
Would live to have the ability to look into the future and predict the weather so far out, you could make millions!
All jokes aside, even educated guesses from the met and various other outlets currently haven't a Scrooby where convective showers and streamers will form.
Sit back relax and open the radar from tomorrow evening
Oh i'll be out enjoying it no worries - nothing better than trudging to the local pub in a blizzard (hopefully)
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My area is probably too far west for the real fun and games Mon/Tues and too far east for Friday's. Hoping to actually get to use some snow chains I bought years ago but could be waiting another year then ...sigh
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Chris Thompson on Twitter has mentioned @Steve Murr 75cm prediction for the SE to Fergie his reply ?
Well he didn't rubbish it so that's quite telling in itself
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Weatherbell looking at comparison to 1962 - Europe discussed around 6:10 in the daily update vid
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well at least if does all go t^ts up , metoffice will have some explaining to do
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Downgrades must surely start tomorrow...
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9 minutes ago, Bradowl said:
Some amazing looking charts for coldies, my only concern it's still a good few days away, enough time to go pear shaped.
I suppose this time everybody incl models and weather agencies seems to singing from the same hymn sheet- just a question of how cold now and for how long
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Incredible -16 850 hitting the east coast on the 18z. No way that will happen but worth another vino to take to comtemplate how awesome that is
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13 minutes ago, knocker said:
Not that I'm bothered in the slightest but if you not taking into account my posts in the short mod. thread, where it's quite easy to be biased, then, as the post you quoted was referring to interpretation of the models, you must be talking about when I used to post in the main mod thread. So if I'm on the same level of bias as the majority who post in there then I'll need to take a serous look at what I'm posting.
Thats the spirit - will leave it there then...
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58 minutes ago, knocker said:
Feel free to expand on that and point out where my recent posts, or indeed all of my posts, in the short range model thread are biased. After all that is the only way those of us who take the time to post can improve out contribution in a constructive manner.
Well true you're no more biased than anyone else but it was the inference on the previous comment that somewhow you're less biased than others.
Obviously you can't really have bias in the short term model analysis
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2 hours ago, sawan said:
Hi Knocker, two questions please;
1. You don't post in the MOD thread anymore, used to like your unbiased interpretation from the charts
2. What is your take on the current developments. My take is that the current synoptic favour EC rather than GFS?
Thanks
Unbaised ? haha a classic
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Typical - thought southern areas were most at risk from snow but luckily as GFS precip are a load of tosh this far out I won't take much notice - yet
Edit just seen 222hrs - you're forgiven !
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You'd think that at least one weather app would actually have a snow symbol or some actual cold showing on them for this time next week (for the south) and into next but nada, bit fat zero, zilch on any of them and with daytime temps around 5-7c.
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6 minutes ago, AWD said:
Just for balance, there are just as many milder members as there are colder ones in the medium to long range GEFS;
That's messier than my kids bedroom!
The period 21-24 has the mean below -5 - the 6z was above. Quite a noticeable change at that range
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Need to order the snow chains
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I expect an emergency update to this afternoons met outlook forecast then
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Why do we still get comments on the Mod thread re complaining about differing opinions on a model run...Er because it's a forum and people have differing opinions so why not check the models yourself and reach your own conclusion. If you don't know how go to the learning section !
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The metoffice update is correct in that there is 'potential' for a significant event but looking at the latest ens it's clear that divergence occurs around the 21st - with the control and op on the milder side I'd bet on a downgraded next update unless mogreps is seeing something different
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It was more the metoffice info that falling and slipping on ice can cause injuries - just warn that its icy and to take extra care
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So according to the Metoffice weather warning for the NW...
Some injuries are possible from slips and falls on icy surfaces.
Blimey I never knew that falling on an icy surface could be so dangerous. You live and learn eh. Best warn the kids asap
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Now this is encouraging....
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The Paris ens show a marked mean increase around the 1st so indicating I would have thought a more N/E trajectory of that low at the end of the week