[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 24th March 2013 22:00hrs>]

Looks like any snow event delayed until sun/mon now - ugh nearly a week of this cold boring dry weather to get through

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:00>]

I know Metcheck don't have the best reputation but surely this isn't possible for Farnham,Surrey on Saturday ????

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

So yet another climbdown from the models, we go from snow across 90% of the UK to what in effect will be 1-2 cm across east/north east regions lasting 2 days from Sun and possible sprinkling further inland.This seems to occur with projected E/NE flows on a regular basis..zzz

[South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013]

Sounds like they think mostly up north but are unsure about later on. I hope we finally get something very good down here, we've had so much falling for little result so far.

Still the possibility of snow for southern areas on Sunday/Monday due to low pressure system in SW - GFS certainly think so. One to watch

[South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 4th March 2013]

Astonishing update from the metoffice - could be the most disruptive week of winter coming up !

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

Yep - all quiet on the Model front - Winter's over. Await another rollercoaster ride of ramps/disappointments and hopefully some decent winter weather. Roll on Nov 2013 !

[Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.]

I disagree with your post. The met office are playing it safe as we are still talking 4 days out.

Even if there is heavy snow on the weekend it will not have any bearing on their credibility. If you listen to their latest forecasts and Ian F's posts they clearly state that there is no significant snow showing up at the moment. This can change and if it does I am sure it will start showing up in their forecasts.

Slightly unfair on Sleety - he's basing his assumptions on current output on which the Met Office have obviously discounted by the following comment

"Confidence remains high for conditions continuing cold, mostly dry and generally rather cloudy"

If the Met Office do now change then that is an error on their prognosis for the coming week

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.]

Looks like Exeter have discarded UKMO and ECM based on latest update..

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2013 to Thursday 28 Feb 2013:

Predominantly dry weather is likely to prevail over the UK through to the end of the month. Cloud cover will vary from day to day, but most areas should see at least some sunny periods. Western and southwestern parts have the greatest chance of seeing any rain as weather systems try to push in from the west at times. There may also be some wintry showers in eastern counties too. It now seems increasingly likely that there will be little change in this pattern through to the end of the month. Temperatures in most places will be close to normal at first, with no more than patchy frost by night, but a downward trend is likely later in February, with frost becoming more widespread and daytimes feeling rather cold.

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

The timeframe he has tweeted has given him a pretty big margin for error, though, hasn't it? In terms of that prognosis, were the last ECM forecast to verify, it would probably be reasonably accurate if you're taking the '7 days' bit into account, though perhaps not over 14 days. 7 days doesn't quite get us to the back end of next week. Also to be fair to him, he has highlighted 'could'. If anything, he is again stressing the uncertainty and disagreement between the models.

Yep - I agree that up to 7 days he could well be right, it was the 14 days bit. I cant see the point of saying "could " be no snow, it doesn't actually tell you anything, you might as well say it "could possibly snow" !

Anyway only a twitter so not something to get hung up on !

[Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts]

Matt Hugo twittering and presume he means todays snow event...

"Given that latest data this *could* be the last noteworthy snowfall event for the next 7-14 days..."

Eh.. surely not, even metoffice suggesting possible snow towards backend of next week

[Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards]

Nail on the head. It's not the FI runs, it's the hyping-up that leads to disappointment. Same every winter.

This thread would be pretty dull though without the ramping - one reason this is one of my favourite reads during the winter. If it ended up being akin to reading posts like Gibby's (albeit they are excellent) then it just wouldn't be the same.

Ramp away please !