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cobbett

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Posts posted by cobbett

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by cobbett

    Actually, he has been posting winter charts since around May but had a perfectly valid reason for doing so considering it is a model. Why is it silly if he is just showing and often writing about it's output?? I realise it is highly unlikely to verify as a run shows at the time, but that's not the point of it.CreweCold is one of the few people I find that actually look for the trend from the CFS over a long period of time and actually assesses it as each month passes. Throughout the second half of this year, he has been going on about northern blocking showing up for winter as the overall trend. So for me, it is always interesting to read what he has to say on the progress of any trend. That goes for whether there are more colder or milder options being shown by the way, because personally I am just interested in learning about the range of forecasting tools that are used for things such as seasonal forecasts.Posting random one run CFS charts...yep I agree it's just eye candy at the time and pretty much pointless if taken at face value.Using the CFS to help spot trends and possible areas where any pattern might set up however...well, not expecting it to be accurate here. but it is useful to learn about how it is used and review it as each season passes.I'm not saying the CFS is some magical tool to forecast weather months in advance, but it is always worth looking at, as one of the many outputs used to look for any long range indications or trends.

    Blimey poor old Gaz was posting a CFS chart for January and got slated yet its ok for Crewecold to do so !! I can see why anyone posting a chart promoting a mild alternative has a hard time on these forums during winter

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, sunshine, warmth, people out and  about enjoying themselves with smiles on their faces.....terrible isn't it.....

     

     

    The world doesn't stop when it is not warm. People still smile and enjoy themselves whatever the weather.

    Wouldn't be much of a life if we base our moods and the daily life on the weather.

    Lol I think the point was being out and about  - not sure many will have a smile on their faces, I'll take refuge in the pub Posted Image

    Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes this is a possibility that has been considered quite widely for a while and is the subject of more recently published work by Cohen - the abstract can be read and full paper downloaded here - http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.html

    But though the ice is quite a lot more extensive than last year it is still a long way below the long term average and in keeping with the downward trend and levels of the past decade so no particular reason why the same mechanisms couldn't apply this winter.

    Ah ok so still down on the long term average - that was the bit I didn't grasp ! Thanks for the link

    Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

     The latest value: 5,086,095 km2 (September 24, 2013)

     

    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

     

     

    A massive jump on yesterdays figure!

     

    I know very little regarding this area - but doesn't less Sea Ice equate to colder winters. Comparing the ice extent from this time last year shows a big increase but according to what I've read  this isn't great if you want a cold winter

    post-11460-0-08048700-1380107240_thumb.j

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Come on this warm cold spell has been well and truely over hyped with talk of lasting 2 weeks and temps well into the high  low 20's, the only time this was gonna be epic was inside peoples head. Local warm cold spots don't make a widespread warm cold spell. Some can dress it up how they want but most know all this talk has been cobblers.

    Edited for 3 months hencePosted Image

    Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All looks good then for next week but I have one concern in that I'm off to Swansea for a long golf weekend from Fri 30th and without fail we have always had rain/gales for at least part of this weekend.

    I've now told the party that this year will be different as all the models and anomaly charts are all as one for a high pressure dominated week to come so take the shorts and suncream !

    I'm hoping to not have an epic fail on this so is there one model which is showing some unsettled conditions for next weekend so at least I can add a caveat of sorts just in case ! It all seems just too good to be true at the moment

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Matt Hugo very confident of no return to summer weather for the first half of august..

     

    "Low pressure is forecast to remain an influential feature of the weather throughout the first half of August and there is quite high confidence in this prediction"

     

    We shall see, but don't think his summer forecast is panning out too well at the moment !

    I occasionally have a look at Matts twitters and even today it is still on the unrelenting unsettled theme for the next week (and rest of august) and telling all that  there is no settled weather to come. I find this extraordinary as so far this august the weather has beeen excellent with only one day of heavy rain last monday (albeit i am in SE). Looking at the models today I would say there is a reasonable chance of some fine and possibly warm weather to come next week, but no hint of that with Matt's interpretation !!

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Matt Hugo very confident of no return to summer weather for the first half of august..

     

    "Low pressure is forecast to remain an influential feature of the weather throughout the first half of August and there is quite high confidence in this prediction"

     

    We shall see, but don't think his summer forecast is panning out too well at the moment !

    • Like 1

    Summer 2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Some thoughts on the next few months from Matt Hugo, may be of interest to some in here...

     

    http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

     

    I can never see the relevance of some of these long term forecasts as they are so vague , it appears to be that the success of a forecast is based on whether the actual temp is either below average/average or above average or likewise with precipitation. If someone mentions above average precipitation then to me that implies a wet and fairly miserable summer, but then if we have 7 days out of the month where we a have a deluge of rain and the other 3 weeks dry and warm then I would consider that a perfect summer. Likwise 1 week cold and miserable and 3 weeks heatwave ..perfect !

    • Like 6

    Climate Change In The News - Spring 2013

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by cobbett

    Yep I know this is the Sun but according to the article - http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4881369/Is-the-UK-set-for-Arctic-weather.html

     

     

    "Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice†towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation."

     

    Interesting then that Julia in an interview  with "Geography In the News' dated June 211 was asked the followiing

    9. What changes are we likely to experience in Britain’s weather in coming years as a result of climate change?

    "Current predictions for later this century show that UK winters are likely to become milder and wetter. Summer weather is likely to be warmer but with less rainfall, although when the rain in summer does fall, it could be in the form of intense downpours."

     

     

    No wonder so many people have an ambivalent attitude to Global Warming if so called respected experts keep changing there views based on an unusually cold month. I presume the Met Office will be back to forecasting mild winters when next March happens to be unusually Mild ??!!

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