cobbett
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Posts posted by cobbett
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I saw Sky News interview of a group of swimmers who had a dip off Brighton whilst a few miles up the coast, a boy was swept out to sea and is missing.Am I being too sensitive here? Was Sky News irresponsible and insensitive showing this interview? Were those swimmers irresponsible and insensitive considering what happened just up the coast?Am I overreacting? Other opinions please.
This was probably the same group of swimmers who go out every day and I'm sure they've endured worse conditions in the past - its what they do and good luck to them
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DrIven into Southampton from Farnham in record time today - no problems at all and if I hadnt seen any prior media reporting and metoffice warnings would have classified this as just a minor autumnal storm
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Well as usual the anticipation turns out to be the most exciting part of this so called storm. Over a week of build up and much like anticipated big snow events they almost never deliver.
Now on to next weekends storm !
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That reminds me - need to wax the ol surfboard!Interesting read. The wave height assessment by NOAA is remarkable, and potentially troubling for parts of the south west. Potentially 8m + waves heights close on-shore. We don't see that very often in southern England.
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We are now also as I type entering the "reliable" time frame... Yes 6 hours out things can and do change... but with all the models now coming onboard including the NAE it's fair to say.. that Monday, will be wet...Windy.. and at some point probably something to look back on and go WOW
I would also like to note how I think global warming is playing a HUGE part on our weather now... This storm.. would be nowhere near as powerful or probs would not even occur would it be for the really warm air we have around us.. and warm seas... Plus no idea why the jet is so powerful but I am sure global warming has something to do with it..
But will our Government say that when they got a tree through the houses of Parliament? Will they F!
Hope they don't - my energy bills are high enough thanks without an increase in green taxes to pacify the warmists, but thats another debate !
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No noticeable difference that I can see from last night - no sigh of relief hereMost models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south. Nothing major on this mornings output. Major sigh of relief at the MetOffice. - of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional
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Hmm does my oak have a pre existing weakness ? No idea but thanks fergie that's really helped my nerves .... Not! Lol .Best check the house insurancethis just posted by fergieweather fergieweatherfergieweatherIndeed. We consider sting jet potential increasingly likely as storm exits eastwards meaning backwash winds could be most problematic. Incidentally, all models now have a good grasp of the initiating perturbation and exhibit just minor variation at that juncture. Consequently, Ops Centre note higher than usual confidence on broad story even at this range albeit range of outcomes in MOGREPS-15, EC etc still needs emphasis. I said on air tonight that one area I think will get hammered is contiguous to Lyme Bay (Dorset, S Somerset) and new high-res output doesn't alter my view.On issue of tree damage: history shows us 50 or even 45kt gusts ample to damage/truncate/topple mature trees in some situations and especially oaks with pre-existing weaknesses. Conspiring to this likely outcome on Mon is pre-conditioning of weak trees with Sunday's winds and equally, soil moisture status (EURO4 and other output adds widely 20-40mm Sat PM-Mon AM), thus reducing anchorage. So any suggestion of 60kts being insufficient to topple trees is way wide of proven reality.
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I don't think we should be drawing any comparisons just yet......
agreed not yet - but trees will be down
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I've got a silver birch in mine, quite an old one I think, but just in case I might have my daughter sleep elsewhere incase it decides to go through her bedroom window.
This doesn't help either ! Re 1987 storm
"The storm caused substantial damage over much of England, downing an estimated 15 million trees[11] (including six of the seven famous oak trees in Sevenoaks,["
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No... But then are any of us 'normal' in here ?Just hope the timing is early hours of Monday and the worst of it hits before 6am when most people are in bed
Would prefer daylight hours anyday - got a large oak tree in full leaf right next to the bedroom, every crack/creak it makes will be magnified at night !
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My gut says it will sleep south and east of here, with the Benelux and N/E France taking the brunt of it. Moderate rain and a slight breeze here IMO.
Metoffice indicate that the 'most likely' track is across the south tracking N/E ....at the moment anyway
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Ok , thanks GF and SB for clarifying
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I thought it was Lorenzo but beefed up by merging with another low pressure system
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Nicely put, they need to be cautious, are obviously viewing developments and will act as appropriate.
And even the Express has to be right sometimes.....
If the Express is right though, there'll be front pages headlines as to why the metoffice didn't issue sufficient warnings etc etc.
Actually where did the paper get there info from - Madden ?!
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An interesting snippet from Ian Fergusson regarding Monday's forecast;"Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"
It'll bet fergie and other pros will be desperately hoping that the storm on Monday is not as severe as the Express etc warned about a few days back. The constant deriding of the headline would make it a bitter pill to swallow thats for sure !
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Wouldn't say much for now as there is little to suggest anything like a storm as severe as the Great Storm of 1987 is going to occur. Remember storms like that are currently thought to occur about once every 300 years! So maybe warn of some potential gales but keep a close eye on the charts to be sure.
oops too late - i mentioned it once.. but think i got away it !
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Quandry at the moment is when I do I start telling friends/family that there could be another 1987 storm on the way - not sure I want to look a complete prat if it doesn't come off !!
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Fill your boots, though you have to register.
http://www.ukpressonline.co.uk/ukpressonline/?sf=express
The Express complained there was no warning (re M Fish), so probably explains why they think they are doing the public a service and warning about absolutely anything now however remote
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Last winter the EC32's were consistently wrong with their monthly updates, in fact it became a bit of a standing joke when Matt Hugo tweeted each month how the EC32 was seeing HLB when in actual fact the exact opposite kept on happening. We are still a million miles off issuing correct forecast beyond 10 days.
He did indeed. His winter forecast (if he does one) will hopefully be out soon so that will be interesting to see
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some posters to be a little more realistic in terms of the word warm milder yes average or slightly above yes but warm no.
Metoffice outlook says "Temperatures on the warm side of average", so not too unrealistic to mention the W word
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Agreed pete, the models pulled the rug from under some of us last week, but again there is good agreement from the gefs mean & ecm ens mean for a significant recovery in temps later next week and some dry and sunny weather eventually returning to the southeast of the uk.
Seems to tie-in with the metoffice update with a hint of above avg temps for the south anyway
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A possible 70f Frosty ? Now that would be epic !
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Can we have a tag on each member to signify who's a wind-up merchant then
! Model watching is difficult enough without having to sort out everyone's personal agenda.-
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Monday's storm - into Europe.
in Storms & Severe Weather
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Surfers go out in all weathers, me included though many years ago. I suppose they should stop when the waves are big in case school kids think it's safe to go in !