cobbett
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Posts posted by cobbett
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Not too surprised that Chris Fawkes is fairly bullish that this is just a cold blip (as he calls it) before there is a return to mild conditions but it was his statement on strat warming ..
"I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February"
Odd, I thought the signs were certainly there, or is he technically correct and that any warming is later in Feb ?
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No major cold in the latest runs the Atlantic remains too strong. So winter still on hold.
A minor cold would be just fine for me
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Ironic that last week it was all about how about interesting the models were/ knife edge stuff/ Snow predictions by area being made / me looking at snow chains etc and we just end up with this depressing muck. Always likely to happen I suppose whenever an easterly is progged
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Cheer up you lot - 1947 winter didnt start till 22nd Jan !
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Sunspot activity too high this winter, so just feel it ain't going to be a good year for anything wintery in the UK or indeed Europe as a whole
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J Maddens last twitter entry on 8th Jan
Here comes the widespread snow and cold - as forecast before all standard meteorologists
will be Interesting to see his next one !
He has some disgruntled followers - last reply to that was
"You have been forecasting #uksnow for 40+ days. "F eck all so far "
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Well things certainly look a lot different today. As Ian said yesterday were on a knife edge here. Easterleys are so difficult to achive in the uk . Think we may need another bite of the cherry here. My feeling is we will miss out here. With something more meaningful months end.
Think you could be right - a downgrade had to happen after I told the guys in the pub it'll be wintry down here next week...doh
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Well I lost my bet then - thank god !
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Should start a sweepstake on when toys start flying around - i reckon the 12z later will begin a slow backtrack with the usual (happens every time) of "it's only one run" or "Hope ECM doesn't follow suit" or "it's only the GFS so ignore" blah blah. Hopefully won't happen but it almost invariably does unfortunately !
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Next Thursday thru to Sunday looks the timeframe for any snow according to the 06z, but as always taken with a massive pinch of salt but at least shows the potential !
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Next rain event approaching though heaviest rainfall probably just skirting southern coast
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Interesting to see whether the rain tonight affects such a large swathe of the SE - looks to me like the southern coastal fringes/east kent could get a downpour or 2
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Heavy rain/ Thunder and Lightning here in Southampton - hurrah
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This is a worrying photo, please tell me these are not people standing under that giant wave?
That is incredible - wonder if that is Portleven. They do have a decent reef break and probably the UK's best so the waves can get quite spectacular so god knows what it's like at the moment !
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Suppose I must be a bit odd but I actually quite like this weather - never a dull moment when driving to work and makes up for the normal hum drum weather we normally get. A31 yet again closed due to flooding, but after a brief consulation with the biker who pulled up beside me decided to give it a go and lo and behold no problems at all and then following that an almighty downpour of biblical proportions approaching southampton - quite awesome !
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Quick question, none of the models are showing a major freeze coming up with JP and others putting Fi around the 10/1 , so where do the express get there info from
James Madden of Exacta Weather is always a prime source for the Express - complete nonsense of course
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It has gone hasn't it? I'm still seeing plenty of rain unfortunately but maybe the wind warning takes precedence? GFS has this for rain later tonight into tomorrow and beyond:
24 hours+ of relentless rain and gales on top of the flooding already present in some SE areas...
Thanks Coast - It was just that there was specific warning for rain (or so I thought). No matter as looking grim anyway for driving around tomorrow
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No but Environment Agency have amber warnings for coastal flooding along South Coast tomorrow along with heavy rain predicted tomorrow, Saturday and then another yellow warning for rain on Sunday. So I think yes rain will be a huge problem in days to come.
Just never ends ! Thanks for the update SJ
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Unless I imagined it , I thought there was a warning for rain for late tonight and early tomorrow for some southern counties. This seems to have disappeared so maybe rain not such a problem after all... thankfully
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It has been pasted numerous times but once more won't hurt..
Well I wasn't planning on going out to do any sea-fishing ! A 50-60 mph inland occasional gust is not something i will hyperventilate on - It could interfere with my golf though
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Read the text
Sorry, but there is no warning for wind - Metoffice have a specific warning for extreme wind and it is notable for it's absence.
I'm driving to the south coast tomorrow to work and a rain warning isn't going to put me off - actually probably not even a wind one either lol
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They haven't been removed. Look again.
There are no wind warnings for southern areas
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doesn't look to me like that severe a wind event for most of the Country tomorrow evening - not quite sure what the fuss is about
remember the storm we had a few months back - the trees still had leaf on etc - the trees are now all in full on "winter mode"
Couldn't agree more - there's not a even a severe warning for wind, just lost of rain..zzzz !
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I think you may be missing something, Current estimates are for stronger mean and gusts for the south not just an east kent problem.
Well latest metoffice warnings are for rain, as I would expect
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
So latest metoffice forecast is a bit dire then for cold. Not even a mention of 'uncertainty'. Lets hope the 12z prompts an update but not holding out much hope for this winter