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No Balls Like Snow Balls

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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    The issue with Matt Hugo is, he is as unreliable as a long range GFS model! He himself uses models and then gives us a forecast based on those models.

    I think we should have two threads on this forum, one for close range ( upto 46hrs ) and the second thread, anything behond that FI

    He is just saying what the ensembles are showing. Is that un-reliable in your head LOL. Isn't it the ensembles that are un-reliable rather than the human????

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    Absolutely Rob, TEITS was saying the other day that you can’t let past disappointments judge subsequent events but you have to have them at the front and back of your mind.

    The frivolity of the weekend aside, is a proper cold spell within T144 ? No.

    Do the big 3 models agree at T144 on the building blocks for Northern blocking ? No.

    Are the METO bullishly confident or even reasonable confident (they were for late 2010) ? No.

    Can this go wrong via the usual route of LP through the corridor of death and lack of heights over Greenland ? Absolutely.

    Have the Express run a ‘big freeze’ story ? Yes.

    The wrong answer to 1 or 2 of the above would worry me, but thats a full house.

    But equally you could ask them questions about a mild weather pattern and the answer would still be no. So what you are spouting on about is a load of old cobblers really because the simple fact is that no one really knows for certain what will happen. I appreciate that you have been looking at the models for many years. I have been playing football for many years, but that doesn't make me Wayne Rooney does it!!!

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    Two fold – firstly what needs to be explored is why in some winters (most over the last 25 years) the NAO remains fiercely positive or at best neutral despite signals that should send it the other way.

    Twice this winter we have the models back away from sending the NAO neg at the crucial 6/7 day point as low pressure development is picked up at Northern latitudes. We could be in another of these winters.

    Secondly – I don’t know how long you have been following the NWP in winters but for me it’s about 14 years – and those of us who have been around long enough know that you need rock solidity in the ‘big’ models to get a decent cold spell. If you don’t have it – the worst case milder solution is ALWAYS the one that the end result ends up looking most like. Not scientific I grant you – but true as SM,TEITS etc.. will grudgingly confirm.

    With the SSW happening no outcome can be favoured because the consequences of this are unknown, from which i understand, the research into SSW is still in it's infancy. Maybe in winters with no SSW this is the case, but with what is happening now it cannot be called either way.

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    Panicking about charts that are 8 days away, which somebody just said above is the complete opposite of the 00Z = what a waste of time and effort and just a tad mental.

    Confidence building of cold air spreading across the UK by the end of this weekend, -8c uppers into Eastern England - Is this not a good enough for start for most!!!

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    Just taking nothing else but the 06z GFS ensembles into account, then we are on the cusp of a decent cold spell (by UK standards), 850c temps well below average from mid Jan onwards and 2m daytime temps not coming above 5c for the same time period either.

    That in terms of UK weather if played out exactly to the ensembles would be a decent cold spell, if how ever we were currently living in Scandinavia it would probably be seen as a bit rubbish, but alas we don't not live there do we so for us little old UK,a small island in the middle of a sea with the Gulf stream lapping at our shores is what we have to make do with most winters air_kiss.gif

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    post-115-0-43146900-1357564224_thumb.png

    Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry Phil ( Im going to take my time to word this)

    The models are no different to they normally are volatility wise, we need to try & pick the bones out of their weaknesses & today is no different, do you really see major swings from the GFS at the moment, no its been pretty consistent I think- especially once it plucked out the ridging that the other models were missing some 48 hours ago.

    The problem with saying the cold will come later is are referring to that in repect to the SSW or just the way the H5s are positiong themselves in the mid term-?

    If its just the models then maybe, but by the same token we have been saying that over since the start of december with nothing meaningful actually varifying to date this Winter.

    If in terms of the strat then yes the SSW will buy us more time & more bites of the cherry & its reducing the overall zonal wind which should keep throwing up patterns condusive for the UK to become colder. however the cold cant arrive at every locale along 60N & after a while if the patterns are blocking driven but the UK keep missing then thats our lucks out-

    People keep hanging off Ians every word, however really its a higher level summary of what 'generally' we can already sumise- although I dont mean to take anything away from that because there is SOME info in there we dont see, but also a good balance on a

    scientific level that we can see-

    S

    I wouldn't say hang off every word, but some, ok more like a lot of people would rather listen to a pro than a amateur, that is the same in any walk of life

    Winter Model Discussion Thread 12Z onwards 5/1/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls

    Or how about nothing within high res on the 00z GFS

    Nothing before day 7 on the UKM0 00z or 12z

    Nothing on the ECM.

    Maybe thats a little more comprehensive-

    Or maybe you would take the 06z ensembles for london-

    http://www.wetterzen.../tkavnmgeur.htm

    or maybe the 00z ECM ensembles for reading

    http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

    1 cold day -

    Maybe your laughing as your both mocking what were posting-

    or maybe its a nervous laugh as the forum his pinned the entire hope of cold on the SSW & its suddenly dawning that maybe it just wont land for the UK... bomb.gif

    U on the waccy baccy son?, relax

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, that is your prerogative.

    However, your statement was that evolutions in science wouldn't make any difference. Patently, and evidenced by the advancement in accuracy over those 20yrs, that is categorically wrong. You don't have to agree with that - it doesn't matter, as it's a fact.

    As an aside, if you honestly do have such a blasé view of the models, then could I ask what exactly brings you into the Model Discussion thread? If your default position is that computer models are useless, and mother nature does as she wants regardless; are you not simply wasting your time?

    With all due respect no you can't ask rofl.gif

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