No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Differences at T96 on 12z GFS and UKMO
Even more obvious @ T120
Realistically anything showing after T96 / T120 is pointless until the placement of the LP is resolved
I would be happy if this evenings ECM sides with the GFS.
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Well if that is how you want to read their latest update PM then fair enough, it's all down to personal interpretation I guess.
I think it's un-wise to bet against a cold spell of some sorts within the next 2 weeks, how long and severe it maybe is of course up for grabs.
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A few tweets from Big Joe;
UK and US with cold coming better pray this is not the start of long harsh winter. Cold will slap u in face, and pick your pocket.
Check this out, ECMWF NAO. DIVE DIVE DIVE
Tremendous cold in Asia, but coldest pool over N American. Europe in deep freeze day 8-16 http://t.co/47HSLDmh
Cold shot to open December in northwest Europe coldest in years. Arctic charge into
west. Hope the turbines are working
"The hunt for cold december"??? - well i thought it was funny anyway LOL
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re the stats - the variation at day 5 between the gfs runs is generally very small. its what happens after days 6/7 where you get the noticeable changes, run to run
all 4 runs are equally as rubbish as each other in real terms LOL
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Here are the stats for each run, as you can see the difference in number's is miniscule, what this actually means in real terms i don't know.
The run that a lot of people seem to think is the worst is currently the best verifying LOL - you couldn't make it up could you!!!
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MO still refusing to get drawn into the cold weather feeding frenzy, indeed their line of 'Towards the start of December, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured' suggests they
remain unconvinced of a... a cold spell and b... anything other than a bog standard early Winter spell even if it does turn cold.
We've seen the MO keep their feet on the ground many, many times before when all around them heads were being lost left, right and center, so until they are firmly on board and using rather more 'positive language' I for one will remain very hopeful yet rather doubtful.
They are a professional organisation so of course they are going to keep there feet on the ground as no-one is sure where the block is going to end up !!! Isn't there always a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to longe range forecasting.
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http://www.meteociel...npara=0&carte=1
for ONCE in a lifetime the 06z looks like the UKMO at 144-
http://www.meteociel...npara=0&carte=1
Could be a crackerjack run & the ONLy reason im viewing is because it looks like the euro!
S
Obviously you won't believe a word of what it's showing though LOL
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The T120 time frame hasn't been agreed on yet between the big 3 models with the ECM wanting to place LP West of the UK and bring us milder air in the mid term - therefore until that is sorted I refuse to get excited about "carslberg" runs in FI.
I know that the ECM op was a outlier but that doesn't mean to say that the ensembles won't come into line with the op rather than vice versa. Just trying to keep a level head and keep things in perspective.
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Low of 9.3c overnight - and it rained - thats a surprise lol
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Max of 13c today, some light rain, felt mild out and about, expecting some heavy rain at some point tonight
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Could be some really rather cold days across central England over the weekend and early next week, paticulary on Monday if the 12z GFS were to verify :-)
Some good times to come over the next few weeks one suspects :-)
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Below is the GFS 6z chart for T144.
What's wrong with the 06Z?????? to me this chart oozes potential.
When you have professionals from the meto coming out and saying long range charts are not worth the paper they are written on so to speak, does it then cause so much stress to so many when it all goes pete tong in FI LOL. Listen to the professionals they know more than any of us can ever dream of - FACT. :-)
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Low of 9.4c overnight and that was very early in the evening
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Looks to me like the GFS doesn't have a clue
The HP has almost orbited the UK LOL
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Ðа підÑтаві Ñких Ñ Ð±Ð°Ñ‡Ð¸Ð² на моделÑÑ…, оÑтаннім чаÑом, в мене Ñ” відчуттÑ, що, коли зимові хіти, вÑÑ– ми будемо знати це!
I didn't know the human body was capable of things like that. Tut tut Helga you beast!!!!!
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Low of 2.0c last night - fully expecting a significant cool down of 2m temps this weekend :-)
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Silence speaks volumes never thought I write this but at 168 it's worse than the gfs if it blocking your after
I think the silence is down to most people comment at the end of the run rather than every frame
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8.9c max today, must admit it felt a lot colder than that.
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-2.9c low overnight, frosty this morning and a sparkling sunny day so far.
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Maxed at 8.c today, yet again no sun appearing
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Interestingly, the latest meto update is nothing like the gfs and ecm 00z op runs which showed an anticyclonic spell beyond the unsettled weather next week, it sounds more like the gfs 6z which ditched the settled outlook in favour of another trough, next week does look very unsettled, windier and milder for all areas but it's not expected to stay mild beyond the end of the week, trending colder but remaining unsettled for the following week and still those signs of a cold and blocked spell by early december.
Some notable wind and rain events early next week country wide if the GFS12Z comes to fruition.
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Maybe signs of the LP that has dominated us for so long diminishing @ 7 day+????????????
Flow becoming more NWerly perhaps???
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Low of 4.8c overnight, murky again this morning
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High of 8.5c today, no sunshine at all
Model Output Discussion: 12Z (20/11/12) And On...
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The arctic high wants to get to the med LOL. Placement of the LP for the weekend and early next week is going to chop and change for a while yet. Until this is sorted no one can say for sure what happens with the big cold pool to the NE.