No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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I'm looking for trends in the ensembles, not solid agreement in FI
There has been height rises in Greenland being shown on last couple of GFS runs, that is something of interest and a good sign hopefully
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The latest Met Office forecast suggests just how much uncertainty there is in the models at the minute.
We are dealing with a major pattern change, and the models need to adjust to that.
Looking at the odds at the moment, it's looking like the Met Office are 60-40% in favour of mild over cold at the moment.
The ensembles are all over the place from around the 21st, so I'm starting to think that we may need to be looking into the medium term for change, rather than gazing at the little FI eye candy the models have to offer.
http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html
At the moment, the ECM is out-doing the GFS, not in consistency, but the realism of the set ups that it's offering. The GFS has been the more consistent model for many days now, showing a zonal, flat pattern that's highly vulnerable to change. I think at this present moment in time, we should be looking towards the ECM, UKMO and even the lesser NOGAPS model. In my honest opinion, we should be paying more attention to the ensemble runs, over the operationals from BOTH the GFS and ECM.
Give it till Friday, if we're not starting to see a colder solution. I'll eat my socks all over again. :winky:
Trouble is the ensembles are all over the place too, they are up and down like a ho's kinckers, it's impossible to tell which way it is going to go using the ensembles at this stage.
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Updated now :-)
UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:
The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012
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Ummm great 6-15 day outlook today. Mentioning the significent risk of colder weather :-)
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6Z GFS - Unsettled and cold on Friday, cannot really see any very cold or Snow up until Sunday at the earliest (despite the snow chart in post 284) I would be asstounded if that came off!!. Wintry showers in Scotland and Northern England looks about the best that will happen. , saturday milder, Sunday or T120 turning colder again perhaps? The only thing of interest I can see between T120 and T240 is heights staying quiet strong and building slowly over Greenland perhaps!! but other than that current trend is for more unsettled cool weather.
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Shouldn't the progression of cold be moving closer, not further away though!
The T168 ECM chart is basically this mornings ( 0z ) T168 chart, shouldn't it have moved forward to T144 by now!
ECM doesn't want to bring it's eye candy into an ever closer reliable timeframe IMO!
No because there is only 12 hours difference between midnight and midday, I'm sure you know that already though, still seems on track to me.
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T168 is fine but its been put back...My moneys on the GFS to win this by a country mile and its 18z will confirm the ECM backtrack tonight.
ECM will continue to show T168 charts...expect it to backtrack in its T00 tmw
Regards
Regards
How has the ECM back tracked?, it looks almost identical at 168 on the 12z as it did at 168 on 00z. What is your explanation?
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By 216 we see a trough to our NE and heights starting to push into southern greenland. How is that a "world away" from the ECM. It is moving further away from its previous output that is for sure.In FI it also stops pumping up the vortex...........is it starting to get the picture now with the negative AO?
I agree it's moved a tiny bit nearer to ECM rather than moved a tiny bit further away. The 12z seems to want to split a little bit of the vortex and we have troughing in scandi, all similar to the ECM in the grand scheme of things, but still a long long way to go to give anything of wintry note.
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All we need to see is the GFS moving things West then we would be in pretty much the same set up as the ECM.
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They are not siding with the gfs as much as they were yesterday, I sense more uncertainty creeping in but the timeframe of the change is now closing in on semi reliable so surely we will have more agreement after the 12z runs are completed this evening.
LOL, i have heard these phrases like "as ever more runs needed" or "Will be decided by this evening" at least a dozen times on every model run since Monday, and yet there is still no more agreement. The weather will not be rushed and the models will all come into line in there own good time.
I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a pound for every phrase lol.
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All this argueing about what models the latest METO update is sideing with is really quite ridiculous. Take a step back, take a deep breath and read it for what it is, which is basically anything can happen and we don't know for definate yet.
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The UKMO and ECM are pretty similar at T144, it's not hard to see how beyond T144 the UKMO could quite easily end up like tonights ECM. ECM and UKMO are the number 1 and 2 ranked models for verification, they are for a reason, so you have to back these 2 over the GFS tonight surely!!!!
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GFS 06Z not bad from the point of view that it would be cold and frosty all of next week if it were to verify. Still we are looking at the cold hanging on until at least Monday for sure. Cold days and frosty nights, at least it's gonna feel like winter :-)
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I do not recall strat warming being talked about as much as this last year, if at all?, it is made to sound like the holy grail of cold weather equal to the cure of cancer. It seems that strat warming has become the favourite for straw clutching, personally weather is fickle and no matter how much teleconnections point to one thing the weather will do what ever it wants. This time last week there were so many posts about winter's over because the models were showing flat zonal weather right into la la land but now things look more amplified and cooler, but some people never seem to learn that weather changes quickly and is un-predictable. The best thing to do is just look at the models and see what falls into place and what doesn't.
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Still some snow patches left on the Chilterns this morning. Just goes to show what even a little bit of elevation can do.
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Still some snow patches left in the shade on the chilterns when I drove through on my way to the cinema in high Wycombe.
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Clouded over about 9AM and started snowing, soon turned quickly to rain though, I should imagine it fell all as snow on the Chilterns.
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I can see the Chilterns from my house, and the particular hill i can see is about 240 meters and there was still a good covering of snow on there at 1pm, I would imagine there is still snow left up there now.
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Big flakes = marginal temperature and dew point. Good to hear though! May be time to head back west on the M40 towards High Wycombe to see what's going on there!
I would have thought they have snow there as it's only about 15 mile South from me and a much higher elevation.
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Covering of snow on grass, roofs and cars in Thame, snowing quite heavy at the moment with fairly big flakes.
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Well that was an interesting forecast! Focussed on the east of our region, especially the motorway network...I'm going to have a fun journey home tomorrow!!
I've got the day off work tomorrow, drive down the M40 to London every day during the week, will be able to watch events unfold safe in the knowledge that what ever it does it won't affect me for a change
. 4.1 c here and rising. -
Latest BBC weather has lows 3-7 C in the Channel overnight, goddam! No chance of snow in Southampton unless something changes (what is needed to pull the cold air further south - a deeper low? More southerly track? I dunno...) #dunce
Oh well, at least I can comfort myself with the thought of lower fuel bills
TBH i think a miracle or a snow cannon is needed for snow in your neck of the woods tonight
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Indeed.
I said the following in an email to a friend of mine, who is travelling to somerset tomorrow.
Certainly could be interesting. I see you’re not far from Exmoor then!
I’d expect SNOW and a possible covering of a few inches at ALTITUDE but if lower down, mainly sleety stuff overnight tonight into early tomorrow then WINTRY SHOWERS from FRIDAY daytime onwards.
I understand the latest RISK AREA to be particularly north of the M4 and Northeast of that area. Put it this way, I’m not expecting overmuch if any at HOME.
All of this can change of course.
I think that's a fair assumption at this current time. Mind you, the falling temperature trend is continuing ahead of the WARM ? sector.
Kind Regards
gottolovethisweather
I just checked my local met office sites and they have been consistent with temps for last 3 hours, so nothing out of the ordinary going on up here yet. Maybe it's to do with cloud breaks lol.
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Yes, I think you're quite right, it isn't particularly, since it has now risen to 6.2c as well.
One thing, having not looked at the outputs and their timings etc. was that considering it was dropping approx. 1c in an hour during daylight hours, I wrongly believed it was potentially a colder start to proceedings.
You haven't missed anything..... Mind you, I think you have more chance of seeing settled snow than most.
ICE could be the major ISSUE for tomorrow's travel to work.I'm going slightly of topic for this thread so I'll leave it there.
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
I made a comment in the Central Southern thread that i am very convinced I won't see any snow from this
It's probably a case though of if i think negative the outcome will be positive lol.
. 4.1 c here and rising.
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Model Discussion - January 17th
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
Could be pretty stormy down Eastern side of UK on Sunday according to 12z GFS at T120.
or could be Stormy on Monday Further North according to UKMO, take your pick, disagreement at T120 between UKMO and GFS.
Good heights still over Greenland in high res part of run on GFS. Did not bother looking into FI.