No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Real chilly today, first day this season where you can see your breath.
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just to put an issue to bed - by this time last year, the models were counting down to the onset of the 'freeze' like clockwork. the amazing thing was that there were very few hiccups in the fi output. in fact the modelling was often more 'armageddon like' than actually transpired the naefs picked up the greenland block at T384 and never wavered. all very different to now. i'm afraid that some of you need to find another straw !!!
I think while the models struggle with what to do with the Euro block it is quite feasible that that a North Easterly could pop up within the 7 day time frame and stick, not saying snowmaggadon will suddenly appear, but we have to remember a small shift in the euro high could bring a moderate cold spell. But just as easily the Atlantic could steam roll in, we are looking at small margins here in the grand scheme of things.
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Not that exciting realy, unless you live on the top of the pennines! Meto aren't as fickle as us lot though, if the ECM continues with it's theme then expect daily upgrades to the chances of snow.
I think exciting in the fact that it covers both bases, i.e. the ECM or GFS scenario, so exciting in terms of it's not been decided yet whether we get a roaring atlantic or cold from the euro high.
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Ummmm, sincerely hope he's right, but to be fair he's not exactly off to a flyer is he....
(2)……I suggest that a general and rapid cooling trend will begin on or around Monday September 12th 2011, with frosts, then continuing the trend into October and beyond
(3)……I suggest that the early stages of winter 2011 / 2012 will begin in a similar fashion to that of 2010 / 2011, i.e., November will show its “teeth†of winter - only earlier than the November 22nd blast of last year
LOL, off to a flyer is a understatement.
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The Met Office charts are out
Temperature
http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png
Precipitation
http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png
Pressure
http://www.metoffice...prob_public.png
If I read it correctly it does not look overly cold.
Doesn't look like they are forecasting overly mild either. Just average by the looks of it, Jan and Feb subject to change though.
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Seems to me that the (mean of the) ECM ensembles show the blocking more to the East/South-East rather than the North-East, so not so good for a "cold" evolution. The ECM operational could be an outlier...
Today's 7-10 day 500mb height anomoly shows ECM with heights further North than the GFS anomoly, the GFS anomoly would probably stand side by side with the majority of the ECM ensembles then. But it does seem to suggest the ECM anomoly stands by it's op run. Whats going to happen is still as clear as mud IMO.
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Currently 8.1c, overcast and feeling chilly.
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Wow the ECM is a turn up for the books, wasn't expecting that. The whole process that the ECM end's up with starts the process at T144 which is probably just after the reliable at the moment. While the op run is at the colder end of the ensembles it's not a outlier. Shame the GFS is not similar at T144 and shows the Atlantic much closer and the euro high much further South, so you would have to say the ECM looks unlikely to happen but not impossible.
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NE England, NE Scotland and E Anglia see large snow falling/lying due to their proximity to north and north east winds. W Scotland and NI also would do well I'd imagine due to their exposure from North to West.
Your regions days of lying snow range from 10 days per year on the coast to over 40 days over the higher Pennines. The number of days with snow falling for your region is a average of 20 days for the coast and low lying inland areas and over 50 days for the high Pennines.
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I think Jan/Feb/March 2006 too!
Over a winter you would expect to see snow falling at some point. But for major snow events with accumulations of above, say, 5cm is an exceptional event IMO (for most people)
Yes away from the mountains of Scotland the number of days where snow falls and actually lays is very small.
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If anyone is interested the official average max temp for Oxford in October was 17.2c which is 2.8c above the long term average.
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Currently 11c and beautifully sunny.
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I don't get excited by these weak height rises to the North that ECM and UKMO are showing, they are too insignificant to affect our weather and I think that will remain so, what would excite me is if the euro high retrogressed but there is no sign of this either, looks like GFS 18Z backing away further from a atlantic regime. Still cool daytime temps next week at around average. Not even a chance of a good old PM blast on the models.
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Once we start relying on the law of averages to deliver, things are clearly getting desperate! Bottom line for now is there is no sign of a pattern change to anything resembling cold, either close at hand or in the upstream pattern, so we just have to remain patient and try hard not to see things that really don't exist.
Hopefully from this point on, anyone coming in here and saying it's going to turn cold later in the month will also clearly explain the reasons why they think this is the case, because for the life of me I can't see it.
Exactly there is no sign of a pattern change so the longer we stay in this blocked pattern the higher a chance of a cold spell becomes, pressure moves all the time, so it wouldn't stay out East for ever more, as we know blocked patterns are great for delivering cold in winter and have we have seen from runs earlier in the week it only takes a slight change in the position of the high to make pretty big changes in the conditions at the surface. If we were in late December/January then there would be every chance that this high would have us in the freezer now.
In terms of potential for cold I would much rather be in this blocking pattern than have a roaring Atlantic, as we know the last 3 winters have seen a increase in blocking and the atlantic has been fairly quiet and look at the cold outbreaks we had.
I don't see any cold on the horizon at the moment and i don't see anything very mild either, just average conditions.
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Currently 11.5c. Sun is trying to break through the murk.
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Now I know this may sound trivial but this block despite how boring its been by just sticking there the longer it stays the more chance I think it will retrogress I think this was what John Hammond was hinting at last night
I am of this same opinion too that the longer it stays around surely the law of averages will have it in the right place for cold at some point.
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Based on 00Z GFS run then Mon, Tues, Wed's will be the coolest days next week, with single digit temps in many places especially on Wed's, Tuesday night will see us with the best chance of having frost, certainly a lot less chance of frosts than what the GFS was progging earlier in the week. Thur's see's a slight warm up in temps. Looks like the Atlantic tries to make in-roads later in the week but It does not look like it gets very far across the UK based on current output's
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The 12Z run was very interesting. We just need a few things to go our way and Europe could be plunged into the freezer!
Keeping my fingers crossed.
Sounds so simple .
Unfortunately the rate it is going i don't think we will see any proper cold until December. -
NOAA maps look to completely disregard both the GFS and ECM operational runs:
Groundhog day!!!. The GFS 500mb height anomolies i saw this morning didn't even show low pressure out in the Atlantic anymore, so the GFS op is going against it's 500mb predictions?. Also the mean SLP on the GFS ensemble doesn't go below 1010mb for the entire run, it does kind of suggest this euro high isn't going anywhere?
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I don't think I've ever seen so much disagreement from the GFS ensembles. Especially just one week out! It just shows that everything is still to play for, and that we may be seeing a completely different pattern shown by the models in just a week or two.
Yes FI is about 144 at the moment on the latest GFS ensembles and after that is anyone's guess. Earlier in the week we saw quite big changes in the position of the euro high and this was at the T120 mark.
Model watching at the moment reminds me of "modern winters" back in the day when the best we could look forward to was a 2 day Northerly toppler and then the rest of the time model watching was about "what if's" that never materialised.
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The GFS in the high resolution part of its output is far better than the earlier 06hrs run as we see the limpet ridge flattened and some energy does head more se, the UKMO looks different with the troughing at 144hrs.
I suspect some upstream uncertainties noted by NOAA are feeding downstream into the Greenland area.
At this point disagreements regarding trough position are positive if you want a change as it keeps some options open, if the ECM sticks to its guns this evening then confidence in its output would be increased as to a certain extent the GFS has shifted towards it
Umm yes the GFS and ECM around the 144/168 mark are pretty similar. I can't make head nor tail of the UKMO though.
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This will please the cold fans.
About time
, that suggests to me we will see a more mobile Atlantic. -
Here with some custom statistics for the bias.
Ah cool. Cheers
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Here's an analysis of GEFS Thurs 12z for London Heathrow (it's the most recent that I can get numerical data from)
This shows the warmest, coldest, the average of all members, and how the weight (bias) of the members relate to the mean. ie when the bias is above the average it means that the members tend to agree that the outcome will be likely warmer than the mean, and vice versa for below the mean. A bit crude, but, perhaps, shines a little light on FI.
Day 61 looks interesting! (but, alas, still marginal for the white stuff)
EDIT Apologies - it's not day 61, it's forecast period 61, which is the 25th Nov 12z.
May I ask where you get this analysis from?
Unfortunately the rate it is going i don't think we will see any proper cold until December.
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