No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Looking at the longer term picture for the whole of winter what we are seeing now must be good for the future winter months. Basically we are awash with high pressure, ok so it's not in the right place at this minute but eventually we will hit the jackpot, it is the law of averages that tells us this, if we see a continuation of high pressure dominated weather through the whole of winter i think we will have a cold and fruitful winter.
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The ECMWF @ T168 has a much better orientation of the euro high if much cooler daytime and evening temps is what you are after, There would be much more of a Easterly/North Easterly feed rather than the more South Easterly feed of the T168 GFS.
ECM 500MB GFS 500MB GFS 850'S ECM 850'SLook at how much closer the colder 850's get to the UK on the ECM because of the better orientation of the euro high, not saying they will reach the UK (far from it) but we would certainly experience much cooler temps than we have been used too.
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I have been reading about Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) and Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and would I be right in saying that a high AAM can lead to a cold wet/snowy winter in Western Europe?. Sometimes the way things are written can make things sound sooooo complicated.
I suppose that I should say that rather than a whole winter I should say period instead?.
So in what i have gleaned from the readings I can I assume that a high AAM phase can lead to an increase in low pressure to the East of the UK bringing colder conditions from the East? and a low AAM phase can lead to an increase of mid latitude blocking i.e. a high centered close to or over the UK bringing us dry and mild southerly winds?
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If you have a look at the latest H500 Northern Hemisphere chart from both the ecm and gfs , you will see the "cold well and trully locked up over the Pole even out to T+240. Jet stream is generally North Of the Uk , so general mild is the likely outcome IMHO....
Yes agreed we are still a long way off of getting -5 850hpa air over us and even 0c 850hpa air still seams a very long way off.
But I am talking short term, i.e. next week and I am talking about the orientation of the euro high being that it may bring a Easterly/South Easterly feed or a Southerly feed, this would be the difference between daytime temps of 13-15c and say 8-10c, may not sound a lot but i can assure you 8-10c after this mildness we have had would feel noticeably chilly.
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I don't think anything is set in stone yet for next week in regards to will we see a continuation of mild daytime temps or a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps to slightly below average and even single digit daytime figures.
The 06z and 12z GFS of yesterday showed the euro high further North and West giving more of a Easterly/South Easterly feed of air and progging daytime temps in single figures, yesterdays 18z then had the high further South and East putting us back in a more Southerly flow for next week, then surprise surprise the 00z GFS had us back in a Easterly/South Easterly feed, then LO and BEHOLD the 06z puts us back in a Southerly feed. It's as clear as mud still but I will maintain we have a 75% chance of a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps from Monday next week. Icindentally Weather Online update this morning goes for turning colder by the end of the weekend.
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10.1c, very dull and drizzle on and off.
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Monday next week will certainly feel different to the end of this week going by the GFS.
I really do believe that we will have seen the back of these mild temps from Monday next week and there will be nothing but a marked cool down from then on. Obviously it won't be good enough for some but after the unseasonably mild temps of late just a cool down feels like winning the lottery.
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12z GFS shoots a cold pool into SE Europe so probably snow for those places. The UK starts to feed in air from Europe which helps in turn to bring in cooler nights again.S
lowly changing the pattern from the looks of the 12z to a HP dominated pattern.
GFS progging single figures away from coasts from Monday onwards for daytime temps, would be very noticeable after the mild we have had.
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It's a shame though that the snow won't be able to make it's way further South and effect most of the United Kingdom.
Must admit that it is quite odd seeing possible temperatures of 18C for end of this week when you think that that figure was rarely hit in Northern parts of the UK during the Summer.
I don't think anywhere will see 18c this week not even the centre of London, just using the GFS 2m temps, i only see 15c being reached maybe a 16c squeezed somewhere before a cool down again on Sunday and much noticeably cooler temps following on Monday.
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I think that we have a 75% chance of having a much colder period of weather from the 14th November onwards, when i say much colder I don't mean freezing temperatures and blizzards!!, what i mean is slightly below average temperatures for November thus bringing a chance of snow for the North of Scotland and I don't mean the top of Cairngorm either.
The NAO and AO are due to go negative soon
, both the NAO and AO being negative increase the chances of colder weather over Northern Europe.The 500mb height anomolies also point to height increases to our North and East which also greatly increases the chances of colder air moving into Northern Europe.
all 3 of the major models GFS,ECMWF and UKMO also show height rises in there latest outputs, albeit the GFS shows it's height rises to be in a different place to the ECM and UKMO we would still see much colder temperatures than of late.
The only thing I can't quite figure out is that in 7 days time the MJO is forecast to move into phase 8
which the MJO composite for phase 8 doesn't quite mirror the current model trend of height rises to our North , Phase 6 most closely mirrors the current UKMO and ECMWF output , the MJO forecast has it's FI like the models though I guess so the phase could quite easily stay in phase 6 i guess. -
Looking at the last few runs with all the 3 major models it looks as though we can be certain about one thing and that is that daytime temperature's will fall back close to average / just above from the end of this weekend onwards. Some teasing in FI on the GFS 12z for cold fans. TBH I don't know why a lot of people are down beat about the last few runs in the models, to me they could quite easily evolve into something a lot colder and they are a lot better looking than they have been for the last few weeks.
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Key thing to look out for here will be the pressure ensembles for Scandinavia which will give us some indication of whether a pattern change is likely or its just the GFS throwing up a rogue run again, the latter i would suggest.
I'm not so sure if it will be a rogue run. The UKMO and GFS at 144hrs are almost identical.
Plus today's 500mb height anomolies show a change in high pressure movement to the North/North East.
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ECMWF and GFS 00z runs point towards a rise in pressure to the NE in FI, a good signal if you are hoping for blocking of sorts near Scandinavia which could lead to colder conditions in time. I'm not so sure about the evolution currently shown, with no decently cold air to the east as it's currently being progged, I feel it's to early to be looking for easterlies anyway as the current set up would probably lead to grey and mucky weather towards eastern areas, also remaining mild or very mild for the time of year. At this time of year we need to be looking to the N/NNE for decent cold which is still bottled up over the Arctic and Polar regions.
All still lurking out in FI and all speculation at this stage.
Um yes the 500mb charts also indicate a weakening of the trough out west and a shift in the high pressure to more Northerly lattitudes.
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There may be some weak development of heights, but this would not stop the current pattern with the trough still out west.
The ECM has been more accurate with this development I believe, so I would place greater emphasis on what that is showing.
Ok cool. Thanks for that. I just want this Euro high out the way so we can get some more transient weather moving across the whole country rather than the South West gggrrr.
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Looking at the mean heights day 8-10 there`s no sign of any pattern change in the medium term.
The Atlantic trough close by to the West and the Euro.block away to the East.
The upper flow continuing from a West or South Westerly quarter with occasional brief ridging between rain bands.
Upstream the pattern looks rather flat so little prospect of any real cold incursions from North of West at the moment.
MJO in Phase 2 at present and the composite heading into November supports the 10 day outlook at 500hpa level.
I have a question! To my untrained eys the GFS 500MB chart shows heights much further North and not as intense as the ECM chart, would this indicate a change in pattern maybe within the 7-10 day time frame and a transfer of heights further North?. I am trying to understand how these 500MB thingy charts work.
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First frost of the season this morning, I was surprised in having to scrape the car. Will be even colder tonight with a ground frost i suspect. Shame it will be getting milder soon :-(
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Looking at the ensembles of the past couple of days it looks as though things will be decidedly average/slightly above temp wise for the forseeable future after this very warm spell this week. Nothing to suggest anything significantely colder, YET!!.
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no toys out of any pram from me just a request for accuracy.
I may well have missed the word cold so please refer me to the specific forecast on the 2 threads Stewart runs most days for the 6-15 and 16-30 day outlooks.
I'll readily apologise if I'm wrong.
Meanwhile the synoptic models do now seem to believe the 500mb anomaly charts that hinted at this upper air pattern about 7 days ago and have been consistent ever since. The overall idea of it cooling down after some quite high temperatures for late September/early October seem pretty sensible to me as the high tends to edge (upper and surface) further west possibly north west. Its exact position obviously will define how much lower the temperatures will be.
Hi,
Post 521, below yesterdays meteo update
UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Oct 2011 to Thursday 20 Oct 2011:
Temperatures are expected to fall back to nearer normal for the time of year across much of the UK by day, dropping below normal at night, especially across the Midlands and southeast, leading to an increased incidence of overnight frosts. The cooler conditions at night will be mitigated by day in some parts by sunnier than normal weather, with both the far south and far north of the country favoured to see above normal amounts of sunshine, with nearer normal sunshine hours elsewhere. Rainfall amounts are correspondingly likely to be a little below average in most areas, especially in the west.
Updated: 1209 on Thu 22 Sep 2011
To me going from night time temperatures of 14/15/16c to possibly below freezing is a lot colder. Yes fair play it says cooler not colder, but i think what we believe the meaning of colder/cooler to be should be left to our own personal interpretation. It's more of a case of being pedantic rather than asking for accuracy.
Thanks.
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replying to post 322
where on earth do the Met O say 'colder'?
Why oh why can folk not quote what is actually said,
the phrase is this..- 'although it may not be as warm as the previous week with some cooler days possible'.
I was actually refering to the meto update of yesterday and the day before and the day before that. Toys can go back in pram now thank you.
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Well out in FI but yes please, it has been suggested on more than a few runs that after the warm spell the high may well move NW allowing a NW/N of some sort and would tie up with the Meto 30 day outlook of becoming colder.
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From what I can see from the latest ensembles and reading the met office update i cannot see this being more than a 7 day warm spell. Looks like things will start to cool down to around average for October in the middle of the 1st week of October. After that it looks as though we could enter a period of cold frosty nights, looks like we could go from summer nights to winter nights in the space of 2 weeks.
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Well thank god October is now starting to appear on the GFS, we can now start looking for signs of proper autumn and early winter in the models.
Cold pooling appearing to the North of the UK is a sight to behold.
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Sorry I do not agree with the new thread. Surely everyone has the right to say what they like in any thread and yes it very much comes across as a them and us scenario. Net Weather advertises the forum as one of the most friendly and informative on the web and I don't see how a thread where only a certain number of invited select few will be allowed to air there views will enhance this website.
Basically this site is for amateur's that enjoying discussing the weather so it's meant to be fun and not lets turn into the met office where as so to speak the senior management get to speak and make all the important decision's while the "peasants" have no input.
Thank You
James
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No idea Pit but it will, if the regulations about to be promulgated say so, be done
ref your earlier qu on the closed thread
Morning John
However don't you find it a bit strange that BA just announced they were going to land at Heathrow despite it being closed and suddenly when the circling over the country the ban gets suddenly lifted?
If they knew that new information suggested it was okay to fly why not announce the fact and then say they're flying across.
I smell something and it's not bad communication or sulphur rather the smell of money, loads of money and the biggest rats of them all lawyers
See my answer in the thread 'would you fly'.
I am one of those who will wait for the NATS/CAA/Euro Control investigation into this particular volcanic release before pointing any fingers at anything underhand going on.
what does require questions asked is how the government reacted to what to anyone with any knowledge of this volcanic eruption and meteorology was that it was not going to be a 24 hour event. All along the models have pointed to winds from the Iceland area into the UK and much of western Europe, other than brief spells, for around 5-7 days from the onset. So why did it take so long before anyone even thought about doing something to bring back people using land and sea transport, using civil and our own military?
The goverment has a duty to protect it's citizens, in this instance what would the goverment be protecting it's citizen's from?. Live's were not in danger so I see no reason for the military to become involved. The last time the Navy was used to rescue British citizens was when the Israeli's started bombing Lebanon and then yes there live's were in danger. This saga has been a inconvienance but never at any stage has it been life threatening.
Wednesday 9th November 2011 Weather & General Chat
in Weather reports
Posted
Currently 10.6c. Dull and damp but not as dull as yesterday.