No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Currently 5.4c, lovely sunny morning after early air frost, fog patches in places driving to work this morning.
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Ice on the car this morning after a early evening shower, my weather station said 1.6c at 0700 this morning, but don't know what temp it actually got down too.
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GFS 06z = Storm moving through on Saturday with the NW and Scotland worst affeceted, everywhere will see some rain though and gusty winds. Another storm for Tuesday is on the cards with the same areas worst affected again, not in the reliable just yet so still room for change. Another low being progged for Thursday next week, but this time further South, with the strongest winds and heaviest rain in the South and West, lots happening in the models at the moment, a very dynamic period of weather we are entering Hooorah
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5.6c, come on frost lol.
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7.4c at the moment, falling quite rapidly, hoping for my 3rd air frost LOL.
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It's nice to see the 850 ensembles getting below the average. What I have noticed is that the mean has been slowly but steadily falling over the past couple of days with each run. Long may the cooling trend continue.
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Another very unsettled zonal run on the 12z GFS. Plenty of rain about
Some much needed and welcomed for the South if it came off
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My god it's raining here!!, currently 12.8c
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euro high, has Europe moved then?
The centre of the +ve anomaly seems to me to be over Scandinavia?
If we cannot even work out where something is then there is precious little chance of interpreting the models correctly.
my apologies if its my old eyes that are at fault.
The other valid point to make is it is at T+384.
How many times does the model even remotely get the correct idea that far out?
I do agree about asking questions on here. I'm a touch surprised that OON should make this comment. I would agree if someone asks a succession of questions that is best dealt with by pm but asking questions is how we all learn.
Well my young eyes tell me that preceding T384 the high starts to build in Central Europe and moves North, would that not be a euro high as central Europe seems to be it's origin.
As far as I know Scandinavia has not moved out of Europe and become a new continent.
I don't think I said it would come off at T384, a misinterpretation by you there i think, all I said was is I will keep an eye on it to see if it appears in days to come.
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Umm NAEFS has us back with the euro high by the end of the first week of december.
Round 2 anyone?
I shall be keeping a very close eye on this in the coming days to see if this continue's to be modeled on NAEFS.
I can only assume that this time around it maybe a slightly cooler high?
in the meantime we should enjoy the upcoming autumnal weather.
Yes I totally agree and am very disappointed that people will now be put off asking relevant questions in this thread, if its model related isn't that the whole point of this thread.
The whole point of this forum is for people who have an interest in the weather to learn a bit more about what causes it and at the same time discussing what the future holds.
I do hope the moderating team assess this matter and realize this is a huge own goal and totally counter productive to this type of forum where an interest in learning more should be promoted and not criticized!
Totally agree, if it is a question about models, what to look out for etc or how a certain factor will affect the models then it should be asked in here. But that's not rocket science to realise that surely.
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Wet and Windy for most over the weekend on the GFS 06z. Very windy potentially in Scotland with damaging gusts. As seems the norm at the moment the largest quantities of the rain will be in North and West. A weekend of interesting weather to look forward to.
Will feel cold in most places given the strength of the wind. -
Currently 10.5c , misty.
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If the 12z GFS verifies then Saturday will be the first day this season that daytime temps will be in single digits country wide, Something to look forward too. GFS has a much more Westerly regime in this run, so would be a little milder with less PM incursions. GFS winds a massive low up at T114 which was no where near as deep on the 06z. No way is cooler/colder/milder or just plain average sorted yet. If I were a betting man I would go with the last few GFS ensemble means and say average to slightly below average at times. We shall see!!!.
I think that in this kind of pattern it is all about small margins.
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As nice as the GFS looks at face value, I do urge all who can to look at the ensembles. The GFS Op is consistently whilst not an outlier one of the colder members of the pack. Many dont seem to agree with the cold the Op wants. Chilly with hill snow maybe but lowland snow...not for the foreseeable probably.
For much of the time the op run follows the mean (for Oxfordshire anyway) with the odd blip here and there, I don't think there are to many people expecting lowland snow from this, certainly not down South and probably not even lowland snow in Scotland. I think people are just happy to see a more seasonal outlook in the models, myself included.
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Currently 8.7c, Misty
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I think the issue with this run in terms of getting persistent cold, is at the juncture where the high pressure is weakest, you have a train of developing low pressure knocking on the door, so the high pressure over Canada will be consistently weakened, and it tries to regain strength, but in that particularly scenario it's difficult to maintain any blocking over that area. What really needs to happen is that the Greenland High comes into play, and it's just not at the moment, it's the plateau high that is providing next to no support for other developing highs.
This is symptomatic of a +NAO I believe, but overall it's a pattern change, and whilst it potentially may not be super cold, like last year, it's still a change from a very persistent pattern.
I do imagine the southwesterlies will recommence later into December, but a fair bit of joy for ski slopes, and members living on the higher hills?
I do believe there are a few sheep and goats that are members and will welcome the news.
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Great set of models this evening if you like interesting weather which I am sure most of us do. Great FI on GFS and ECM isn't to shabby either, plenty of potential for wintryness in the long term, and certainly a cooler, fresher feel by the end of next week if the models continue the current trend.
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I don't know, but these were 2 full cages. I guess the tabloid press are partly to blame with their claims of -20C by the end of November. These stories spread quickly and all sorts of people readily believe that it will happen if it was on the front of the Express.
LOL I doubt supermarkets base there buying patterns on reading the newspapers. Surely it's just the time of year where people would start buying de-icer in readiness for winter and nothing more than that. Looks like a bit of tabloid hype going on in here trying to make a story out of nothing.
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Currently 8.7c, partly cloudy
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GFS 06z has pretty much the same track of the vigorous low as the ECM at T144, GFS brings in another vigorous low soon after unlike the ECM. GFS has a much cooler NW flow at the end of next week just like the ECM. GFS also now tries to build a mid Atlantic ridge just like ECM has been trying to do with a trough over in Scandinavia, could the 2 models be onto something half decent from a cold point of view?
I like the GFS from a windy, wet and cooler point of view
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I do not like microwaves and try to limit my cooking them when at all possible.
I also consider them lazy and have to assume that the people who eat these ready meals have no taste buds.
I haven't owned a microwave in 2 years and I do not miss it one little bit.
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People worry too much about what they eat, same with those who are afraid to touch a drop of water/coca cola/alcohol because they think its 'poison.' I've never known anyone to die from drinking coca cola, or from eating too many salty snacks. There's always going to be the exception to the rule but where these Obesity figures come from I don't know, everyone I see on the street at is 'normal' to me.
Why worry about what to/not to eat, how to cook it, we only live once and even the healthiest person in the world is going to die whatever they do..so just enjoy it. cook from the microwave, drink, smoke, pig-out. enjoy.
But i think the point is the healthier person is likely to outlive the un-healthy person, so as you say we only have one life, so do you not think that as we only have one life we should make sure we live as long as possible?.
P.s. I'm not no health freak, i like a good pig out occasionaly and I chained smoked for 20 years, only gave up 15 weeks ago but it is one of the best things i ever did.
OMG too much salt increases blood pressure which can increase the risk of heart attack, strokes etc, which i think you will find can kill you. Seriously you cannot be ignorant to that can you?
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If GFS 06z verifies then temps will be up and down like a yo yo next week, cool one day and mild the next, I actually think we may well be seeing proper autumn weather next week shock horror!!
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GFS still wanting to bring in this storm for the end of th week, although the intensity and track keeps changing as expected.
Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by No balls like Snow Balls
I think the early part of the latest ensembles paint a good picture of how mobile mobile and fast moving the weather is going to be in the coming days.
Remember only last week and the 3 weeks prior to that, the ensembles probably look liked they had flatlined