No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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The progged setup has a lot in common with the north-easterly outbreaks of 17/18 December 2009 and 5-8 January 2010, but would not bring the widespread preceding frontal snow event of the latter as it would have very cold air replacing moderately cold air, as opposed to a frontal zone between two very cold airmasses.
Most eastern areas get hit by frequent snow showers from that setup but in central and western areas it is usually hit and miss. On 6, 7 and 8 January 2010 showers often didn't get very far inland across the south if I remember rightly, but there were some surprisingly potent "snow streamers" which made landfall over NE England and penetrated right across to parts of NW England.
I don't agree with the praise of the GFS even if this progged NE'ly comes off. If so, it will be right in terms of eventual outcome but for the wrong reasons. However, since all of the models have been chopping and changing recently, we can at least say that the GFS hasn't been "cannon fodder territory" with the Euros being good!
When you say wrong reasons, do you mean because it had the wrong evolution to the E'ly?, if so there is no way in the world any model could spot the evolution that far out but a trend yes.
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You have to hand it to the GFS, the Easterly was spotted by the GFS nearly 2 weeks ago, ok it's had it's wobbles and we have all had our doubt's, but it has got there in the end, so fair play to the GFS.
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The GFS and UKMO at T72 are very similar, maybe we are starting to see some agreement at last, fingers crossed!!!!
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These models just don't make sense, even though most are saying milder now, you have the BBC and the Met both still saying it is going to get colder next week!!, it would not surprise me at all to see the models switch back to a Easterly over the next few days. I have never known anything quite like it!!
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The GEFS 06z control at T180 is virtually a carbon copy of the ECM 12z at T216
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Much improved output this evening, and I personally would be more confident now of a cold spell developing again than I have been at any point in the last few days. Despite this, there is a long, long way to go and we need to see this trend continued over the next few days as things can change so much in 24 hours, as we have seen recently!
BBC Oxford weather at 1900 confirmed turning colder next week, very much in line with what the latest models are showing.
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GFS, ECM and ENS all show a trend to a Easterly at 240+, it's a trend that cannot be ignored!!
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It does amuse me that people are hanging onto an easterly in FI which may or may not come off for the UK, it doesn't look particularly safe, however we do have a northerly in front of us with the potential for snow showers along eastern and western coasts and come frosty night to contend with.
Why bother with an easterly that is FI at best (whether or not its been shown for runs or not), and concentrate on the one thing we can be absolutely sure of, the northerly!
It may amuse you but the thing is the GFS must have spotted something, otherwise why would it keep appearing run after run!!.
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Once again - GFS trend setter FI - amargeddon easterly! - beginning on the 8th Feb - a date very much repeated on this forum!
Yep the Easterly keeps popping up in this time frame again and again. I definatley think there will be a Easterly, but whether it will be as cold as the GFS is makeing out I would say not.
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Light snow in Oxford, although seems quite wet variety!!
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If any body lives near the Chiltern Hills I fully recommend going up there. A good 6-7 inches of level snow and upto 10 inches in drifts
Beautiful!!! -
Approx 2 inches overnight and this morning in Oxford added to what was left from yesterday. Having a snow day but ssshhhh don't tell the boss!!!
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Just started to snow lightly in Oxford
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About 2.5/3 inches of snow overnight in Oxford
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A good 2.5/3 inches of snow overnight in Oxford
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Looking good for Oxford tomorrow night. Our best chances for decent snow come's from cold air meeting warm air scenario, I shall believe it when I see it though. Fingers crossed
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OOh yes A34 and M40 would be a treat heh..lets hope yes day off. I have been meaning to get a camera for ages. think id better get one asap today! doesnt matter which type now!! ..back to snow has the wind picked up in Oxf aswell...or is it just me? ...ooh and while writing this the snizzle is now more like snow flurries..
Good I wasnt hearing things..yes think you will be in for some grains as well soon I hope...
Yes wind is very gusty here, it actually woke me up. Some larger flakes at times too.
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are you at home or work
Currently at home :-)
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never sure if Newbury is still south central but then I like to think I am as only up until recently an oxford girl..same with us though Jimblob, we have very light snow here...snizzle....
Would have thought Newbury is still C sthrn and as you say Oxford is only 30 minutes away. It's going to be tasty on the A34 and M40 in the morning I think. Iv'e got to try and get to work at Heathrow tomorrow, although hoping I can just take the day off and go down by the Thames with me camera
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Definatly light snow flurries in Oxford, not drizzle :-)
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Currently light snow flurries blowing in on the wind
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pretty big thunderstorm at heathrow airport, cg lightning and hail which has left a half cm cover on roads and cars :-)
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Approx 3 inches of snow in oxford
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Heavy snow on my way from oxford to bournemouth this morning, was settling on the hills.
Beautiful!!!
Model Chat And Moods
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Personally I think if the models do not swing back to the snowfest that they were showing yesterday by the end of today's 12z runs we will be looking at what the charts are showing now, the high just to the North of the UK and a cold dry outlook for most of the UK. I won't be complaining at least it will be cold with some nice frosty nights.
I know some people will be disappointed but you have to remember we don't live in Eastern Europe or Scandanavia so for us to get the deep cold that the models were showing yesterday really will take some kind of miracle. I could of course be wrong .
James