No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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It is not an outlier (well apart from that small blip). It actually follows the mean closely and sits comfortably in the middle of the ens runs.
At the end of the run the Op is actually modelling lower air pressure than many of the other ens runs. I think the ens could be toying with a high over us, and not situated to our SE as the Op run shows.
They look like outliers to me after dates mentioned in previous post.
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The 00z GFS op run is a mild outlier after the 19th Nov, so that would suggest that a high plonked to the South of the UK isn't the correct set up this minute, in turn the 00z ECM op is a cold outlier from the same date, no man's land me thinks.
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If the 12z GFS verifies then we would see the first widespread single digit daytime temps of the season by the end of next week. What a lot of people seem to miss is if this high stayed around long enough then it would just get colder and colder would it not?, if it stayed as far North as possible at least I guess?
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It's not the mild temps i mind so much but the stale weather, i.e dull and lifeless, if it's going to be mild i want a roaring atlantic bringing heavy rain and severe gales to go with it.
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The 12z is delayed due to a power outage at the NOAA
Thats ok the euro high can wait, it isn't going anywhere.
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This is from a very reliable source:-
The computer equipment that runs the GFS has been destroyed in a fire which is why there is no 12z run.
They are very apologetic and have sent a member of staff to the beach to find some sea weed which they say will be just as reliable as the GFS computer model.
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I was pleasantly surprised to read the long range forecast yesterday but now it's back to disappointment! What caused this change is just 24 hours? lol
Karyo
Well i assume that it would not just have been hasitly written yesterday on a bit of loo roll
. Probably got done earlier in the week maybe.Edit: see post 444
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I thought GP was involved in all the long range forecasts that's why I am surprised.
yes it has surprised me to as below is some of the text taken from December forecast:-
"temperature forecasts which are close to or a little below average for much of the UK".
December outcome is as clear as mud in my eyes.
December Air Pressure
Click to enlarge
December Temperature
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Thank you for the update but it leaves me really puzzled! The long range net weather forecast issued yesterday, goes for a cold(ish) December!?!?
Karyo
I think what it all means in the grand scheme of things is that really no one has a clue what will happen
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Yes it is, it's staying mild to very mild in the short term and probably the medium term and longer term too, no realistic signal of a pattern change until at least w/c 21st november and probably beyond that.
There is a very good chance of frosts next week and a cooling down of daytime temps to around average countrywide, certainly not the very mild temps of the end of this week.
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06z GFS operational seems to have backed away from the general theme of the 00z GFS and ECM runs that hinted at height rises at higher latitudes and height falls towards SW Europe in the 8-10day range, which hinted that colder but mainly dry weather could evolve later on this month. However, 06z shows that the strong flat jet upstream across North America could introduce a much more mobile Atlantic regime for NW Europe as it it works through downstream.
Alot of uncertainty beyond t+144 IMO as to whether we see blocking hold or the Atlantic return.
IMO i can see the block holding, from what i can make of the latest teleconnections it hints that blocking will remain.
The 500mb height mean today suggests that low pressure may set up much South and West of the UK than we have been seeing. We will see though and of course this is all long term and as we have seen not even the short term is sorted yet.
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It looks like the ECM has finally moved away from its more previous output and leaves us with hoping that at 240hrs its called this right as it promises yet another route out of the stalemate.
However its hard to have a lot of faith in the operational runs, this was one of the coldest solutions and doesnt have a great deal of support.
It does look like turning cooler though but for how long?
As I mentioned yesterday a more deeper low is likely to try and move into the UK in the later output and its smply now whether this disrupts, if it doesnt then high pressure yet again looks like cemented itself over southern Europe with the jet running over the top.
If the trough disrupts as in the ECM 240hrs then the outlook will be colder as this will force some pressure rise to the north and allow the jet to head se near the UK.
As we can see from the GFS 06hrs run this is whats likely to happen with no trough disruption.
Personally I wouldn't bother looking past T120 for any possible outcomes, look what happened yesterday with the ECM and GFS throwing up a strong ridge towards Greenland and that was at t144 it all changed i think. Who knows what will happen, will the ridge stay and retrogress further or will it sink South, the answer is nobody knows, I think we should be concentrating on the short/medium term for any exciting/interesting developments.
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I think both the ECM 00Z and GFS 00Z are shaping up quite nicely for cooler daytime temps next week, with a risk of frosty nights in places.
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Currently 9.8c and overcast (no change there then)
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The models today have moved us away from a continental cooler flow next week with winds more likely to be from a southerly point instead and a continous feed of persistently mild air with winds occasionally fresh SSE'ly , possibly a breakdown to less settled weather from the atlantic during w/c 21st november. Yet again it's a case of looking for crumbs of comfort in the depths of FI.
The 12z GFS has moved us nearer to a continental feed next week not further away. I really don't see what you see. you keep saying temps could reach 18c at the weekend but i do not see any evidence in any current model output that this will be the case.
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Will be interesting to see where the ECM op run sits in the ensembles, but both the 12z GFS and ECM would have us with much cooler days and some frosty nights next week.
TBH though the GFS has been toying with cooler temps and frosty nights all week, swinging from mild to cool with every run it seems, but now it has come within 120hrs it may start to stick with the cooler/frosty theme.
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Is it my untrained eye or does the euro high at t144 on the 12z UKMO start to make a swift exit SE and it starts to loosen it's grip on us?
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The synoptic difference between frosty, cold nights and mild nights and lots of cloud is very small, so i wouldn't go ruling out a frosty spell just yet, 12z GFS for example is markedly cooler then the 06z yet the actual differences are pretty small overall.
Yes I notice a slight frost is possible on Monday night and especially Tuesday night in favoured locations if GFS verifies. The differences are so small i cannot see with naked eye.
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OMG there is hardly a cloud in the sky now
, should be quite chilly tonight then under cleasr skies perhaps. As of 1500 hrs 15c -
I think you're missing the point slightly, it's not how warm the surface temperature are, it's how long they are persisting! The NAO/AO forecasts can't be taken with any amount of confidence I'm afraid, I recall at times how the NAO has dived negative on the forecasts only a few days later to become positive.
What is shown at the moment is a continuation of the mild conditions, and until some agreement comes as to a significant cooling down, there's nothing on the cards.
The Met-office in it's 6-15 dayer suggest a continuation of the mild synoptics with above average temperatures, whilst the less certain 15-30 dayer suggests a cooling down - but nothing you wouldn't expect given the elevated temperatures. It's the night temperatures that are having the most impact at the moment, especially in the south.
It wouldn't be that unusual if the conditions persisted all month, gone are the days that seasons follow rules, April down my way was warmer than June but even then it didnt raise my eyebrows, it is what we have to expect from our climate now, i.e. anything can happen at anytime.
Yes I read the met office update every day so i am fully aware that it is forecast to stay mild for the near future, but my point is it's when and not if a cold spell will happen as some seem to suggest they have written off Dec/Jan/Feb already because of late Oct current Nov weather.
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This is not exactly scientific but I have just used the GFS archives and looked at every November 9th since 1998, every year bar one has shown Western Europe in +1c to 10c 850's so what i take from this is there is nothing unusual about the mild uppers we are seeing at the moment and the subsequent mild surface temps, ok we are above average but we are not record breaking above average and it doesn't raise many eyebrows.
some have been saying that there were early signs last year of the cold December too come which indeed was correct, but lets not forget that there are also signs today that things are going to turn much colder eventually. The evidence for this is as follows:
NAO and AO going negative soon
500 mb charts supporting height rises to North of UK
Atlantic being quiet (no storm after storm moving across UK)
Very tentaive signs of Statospheric warming.
Whilst the teleconnections may not be as strong as last year, that means nothing other than we probably won't be getting a December like we did last year, but being a 1 in 100 year event no-one can expect we will.
I know that there are many many many more factors than the above that need to go into place to give us a cold shot but the evidence is out there to suggest a cold shot sooner rather than later. so for all the doom mongers and folks fed up with the current stagnant models i am pretty much of the opinion that it will be WHEN a cold shot will happen rather than IF.
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At last something to monitor.
The warm patch is there on the GFS forecast at 30 hPa as well.
Right, game on!
So this would mean the the PV maybe weakening?
do you have a link to where i can view this chart please on a regular basis. I was trying to find a link to 30hpa charts yesterday without no joy.
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It does not look like we will see temps reach 18c this weekend as some were predicting earlier in the week.
This is to do with the high being postioned more North than earlier runs allowing a slightly cooler Southeasterly flow rather than a Southerly flow earlier in the week.
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Although this current set up is frustrating for cold fans, there is plenty of potential in the charts. The cogs are in the wrong place at the moment, but this is subject to change. The sluggish Atlantic and solid blocking on offer bodes well for a very cold winter. Something to remember is that severe winter spells appear with only a week or two's notice. The previous cold winters had mild autumns and no one forecast last years freezing December on November 9th 2010. Back to the charts, various options are being played with at the moment with no real confidence. By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!
My sentiments exactly, we only have to look at the ECM 12z last night @ t168 to see that only slight changes in the models can make a big difference outcome.
. Probably got done earlier in the week maybe.
Friday 11th November 2011 Weather & General Chat
in Weather reports
Posted
Quite a foggy start this morning, now lifted to grey murk. Currently 9.7c