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No Balls Like Snow Balls

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Posts posted by No Balls Like Snow Balls

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

    As we are rapidly approaching the end of another winter's journey the committee will be meeting shortly to consider words and expressions that should be consigned to the shredder. Under review are, potential, last winter, easterlies, undercut, cross-dressing (not sure how that got in), digging deep, rinse and repeat, eye candy, any sentence that contains references to five or more teleconnections, boring and last but not least building blocks. Other candidates will be considered.

    Pity we can't consign you to the shredder ;-)

    • Like 7

    Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

    People over hype every Atlantic storm that heads this way, but very rarely does it turn out to be as bad.

    Eventually one day though the "hypers" will be right, but more law of averages rather than expert knowledge. Personally though I do always hope it is worse than forecasted.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Apologies, I should have been clearer and said higher than usual heights - which is precisely why we have such little confidence in forecasting, and why we have so many options (some good, some bad) ahead of us. You are right the chart is not an anomaly spread, but by virtue of what that chart shows (which is low confidence on the entire polar region because so many options are countering the usual pattern of low pressure over the area), the chances of seeing a higher than average anomaly spread over the arctic is increasing. Sorry I wasn't clear before, i should have said by implication of the above chart not what the above chart shows...

    Ah now I understand. Thanks

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

    Look at some of the below ensembles taken from an identical timeframe - something brewing?

     

     

    gensnh-18-1-216.png

     

     

     

    gensnh-9-1-216.png

     

     

     

    gensnh-7-1-216.png

     

     

     

    gensnh-5-1-216.png

     

     

     

    gensnh-8-1-216.png

     

     

     

    gensnh-19-1-216.png

     

     

    gensnh-20-1-216.png

     

    I've been in this game long enough to know that things will chop and change and quickly what seems like a trend will reverse to become obsolete within a matter of hours, but coupled with changes in the stratosphere (take a look at the Op forecast), the longstanding Meto suggestion of something colder in January and the rather sudden shift into potential Easterlies in High-Res, the options are clearly there. More interesting times afoot on this thread...

     

    To be honest, it is this chart more than anything else which has me interested:

     

    gensnh-22-1-384.png

     

     

    Basically the entire polar region has a positive height anomaly, stretching all the way across from our Mid-Lat region on one side all the way across to Alaska on the other. The options this presents us with are enormous, though still in the possibility scale rather than probability at this range. Taken together with warming up high in the strat, and this chart is the most positive from a winter weather perspective all season so far in my view. Stand to be corrected though.

    Please somebody do correct me if I am wrong but the GEFS spread you posted is not a height anomoly chart. It is for an indication in the confidence of possible outcomes. I.e the lighter the shade the less confidence (or the greater spread) in the outcome of the possibilities being shown by the ensembles in that particular area on the chart.

    Someone will be able to explain it clearer than i have though.

    • Like 1
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