Buxton Codge
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Posts posted by Buxton Codge
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Great output this morning with a return to much colder weather and a chance of some snow for all :smiliz19:
This will cheer you up - 16c (61F) in Washington DC today! Not just the UK missing out
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CFS is about as reliable as a flea! GFS I usually look to
I agree but its true to say that the CFS model has suggested an easterly for January for sometime now. It would be great to have a cold January which have been very rare since the 90's
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Hi,
Its not just the UK that is suffering a snow drought. My friend in Germany has seen no snow this Autumn and Winter so far and temperatures are well above average. Also a similar scene in New York City with no snow this December.
Maybe it will all turn around in January
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I'm getting the feeling this is going to be one of those 'cold spell appears at 144 hrs out of the blue' type of scenarios. Seen it before and undoubtedly the warming strat is having huge implications on the modelling...something which the NWP as a whole is not getting a grip on.
This is backed up by the post from Tamara yesterday. When will the modelling settle? I'd wager not this side of Christmas.
I think the odd's are in favour of a return to much milder weather rather than a cold spell as shown in all available ensembles. The 12z ECM fails to show anything below 8c for London for the next 10 days
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GEFS are zonal again this evening. I am now expecting a typical stormy start to January with no signs of any lowland snow for southern England.
The stormy weather will keep us interest though. Just a shame that we have missed out on a potential cold spell over the Christmas period.
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Some really cold weather heading for the USA as we head in to the New Year week. Over here the models suggest a mixture of unsettled weather and temperatures not far from average.
Snow risk has reduced again today
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GEFS 12z not that cold to be honest
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png
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ECM 12z says no to Christmas Day snow away from Scotland. Hopefully an outlier
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12z GFS still shows a cold period over Christmas. Potential White Christmas for favoured areas ( higher ground especialliy in the west)
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All looks very similar to January 2014 as we head into 2015 with the Alaskan ridge providing the North Eastern States with a harsh wintry period which will fire up the jet across the Atlantic.
I still expect some wintry weather over the Christmas period but this will be fairly short lived based on todays model output
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18z Christmas looks mild
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, I know the Azores high is causing consternation but its inevitable for a few days until the pattern re-amplifies over the USA, it would be great to squeeze out some interim interest like the GFS P but the main thing IMO is the troughing digging into the central USA which will effect low heights over Greenland and eventually the Azores high.
So far the Azores High has prevented the coldest weather from affecting the south. In fact the snow cover line seems to be where i live in Buxton with places further south having none so far this winter. Hopefully the 18z GFS will continue the wintry theme as we head into Christmas week
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12z ECM is not the best to be honest with high pressure just to close to the UK. Hopefully an outlier
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Most of my optimism is due to the MetO hinting that the potential is there for a prolonged cold spell.
I don't think the Met Office have said anything like this! They have suggested potential for a pattern change at the end of the year with a possibility of some colder weather. Certainly not a prolonged cold spell - happy to be corrected
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There is plenty of cold interest on the Gfs 06z operational run with frequent pm incursions and limited mild intrusion, the most potent cold tends to sweep across Scotland but colder air does dig further SE at times. If this run verifies, the risk of snow, frost and ice will continue, especially further north and more widely during Christmas and I can see the gfs is tinkering with a much colder pattern by the end of the run, all that bottled up Arctic air could be uncorked soon.
Complete opposite of what the models actually show!
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East coast USA looks set to head into the freezer between Xmas and New Year... Is this a good or bad thing?? last year this proved to be bad for the Uk!!!
Accuweather are expecting the Eastern States to go into the Freezer by end of this month which will fire up the jet across the Atlantic. Early days, but I would expect January to be a stormy one across Northern Europe similar to January 2014
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A pattern change expected in the States towards the end of December to much colder weather!
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Snow showers in Buxton. Covering above 300m
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The 12z GFS & UKMO suggest another week of mobile westerly weather but slightly milder than the last week. The CET is currently bang on average but I expect this to steadily rise over the next 7-10 days. More hints of a return to settled weather after the 27th and hopefully colder too.
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18z GFS continues the theme of a spell of milder weather for the middle of next week onwards. Fairly windy too with spells of rain
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Some Photos of todays Buxton/Peak District snow here
https://twitter.com/FlashBarStores/status/542957064742764544/photo/1
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Surprised no comment on the ECM tonight. Potential for some quite mild weather as we head up to Christmas
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Well we have the gfs and ECM now with a much flatter pattern looks like ukmo out on its own tonight. Think after the next 72/96 hrs we may be glad of some calmer conditions.
ECM still suggests a fairly average December pattern for next week.
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ECM 12z continues the unsettled spell into next week. A bit milder at the weekend too
The Midlands - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
8cm of snow near Leek, Staffordshire Moorlands