Harve

Moderate snow has reached the west side of Glasgow and is laying readily... impressive.

Looking at the temperature projections crudely, the run gives CET values between -1 and 2c... wow.

Just because the chances of snow falling near to sea level in southern England is fairly remote, it doesn't mean that it's confined to 'the mountains of Scotland'.

It's a lot more representative really. It takes into account that the mean will, on average, rise throughout the month.

It was a bit naff really, but I think that's more a testament of being in Glasgow rather than Derbyshire than anything else. I know that back home there's been snow hanging around in some form above 300m since early January, which is definitely fairly impressive. Here there's been the occasional fall but nothing lasting more than a day, and a serious lack of properly cold nights. On the other hand, February has been exceptionally sunny and rather warm, at least feeling so due to the lack of wind and rain rather than very high temperatures.

Going to change to 5.8c as my sub-4.5c has turned out to be almost entirely optimism.

25c is 4-5c above the average July/August maximum for most of central England whilst 1c is 4-5c below the January/February average maximum for the same area. I'm willing to bet that the former has occurred more than the latter since 2007, and of course much more so before then. I don't deny that we've had some poor summers recently (2007, 2008, 2012) but the rest haven't been bad at all for your location. I think we've been spoilt with good summers in the 90's and 00's, just as much as we'd been deprived of chilly winters.

Scotland has generally been substantially warmer (by day) and sunnier than central England for the last 10 days. It's quite common when there's a high over the north, only highs aren't often found just to the north!

The good conditions at the moment show how you don't need persistently below-freezing temperatures for skiing to work. The problem with Scotland's snow reliability is that high temperatures in winter often coincide with thawing rain and 'hair-dryer' winds. On the continent, a warm spell may mean some thawing and slushy snow, but as long as there is some freeze at night it will actually stabilise the snow-pack. And it's always good to ski in some sunshine.

Just nudging into the period when most people no longer want it...

I think a major problem is that the coldest air has kept away from the Scottish Highlands, where the coldest temperatures are generally found. An absolute minimum of -13c in Eastern England for a winter isn't too appalling, but -12c in the Highlands is.

A very good point. Nevertheless, for the four coldest winters of the last 15 years to have also been in the five most recent is still something.

That's very much subject to opinion.

After so many months near to or just below average, I'm hoping for something a bit more extreme. And since we're used to such warm spring months, a chilly one wouldn't go amiss. 4.4c?

Echoing the comments about how gorgeous the weather has been today - was walking around in shorts and t-shirt earlier and the sun and stillness made it feel far warmer than 9c (which is already rather mild!).

The 61-90 average for February is 3.7c and yet the same average up to the 15th is 3.9c. This implies that the second half of February is, on average, slightly cooler than the first half? That doesn't quite seem right to me.

The 00z GFS is in much the same vein...

That has to be one of the most ridiculous blogs ever. Can we have a 'most obvious straw man' award?http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/02/05/stop-agw-try-for-55-unemployment-like-spain/#comments "Spain's unemployment is the result of fewer working hours": Is it taking the left trouser leg?

Is it that warming on the earth's surface is countered by cooling in the stratosphere or is one more dominant than the other? Obviously, surface temperatures are what directly affects life, but it's interesting to see what exactly is happening to the Earth's energy budget.

Because the economy wasn't on the road to recovery at all in the run-up to the 2010 election...

There's a lot of talk of it being a shame about the hot spells falling outside of summer. But if it were up to me, I'd keep it that way. 20-25c is fine and can be produced in a hot spell in spring or early autumn, but a hot spell in summer can give 30c or up to 38c in the south-east, which is far too extreme for me. On the other hand, 35c didn't feel too awful in Central Asia, which is thousands of miles from an ocean.

Sleet/wet snow shower in Glasgow, hopefully the first of many.

Report of rain in the Staffordshire Moorlands turning to sleet and then snow on its back edge. Unsure of the altitude although there isn't much in that area below 250m.

Slightly beside the point, but wow, what's up with the tropical stratosphere? Breaking a record by 1c might not seem hugely significant, but when the range is only ~7c it's a huge margin really. Is there any explanation as to why it's been persistently below average and what effect might this have for the mid-high latitudes?

I'll lower my prediction to 3.3c - the month doesn't seem to be starting particularly mild.