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seabreeze86

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Everything posted by seabreeze86

  1. seabreeze86
    At 72 hours there is still a massive spread in the 850’s for my location on the GFS
  2. seabreeze86
    All I want is enough to take the kids sledging and I’m a happy man
  3. seabreeze86
    Met office latest thinking for Tuesday
  4. seabreeze86
    Every run of the ECM and GFS is turning the wind slightly less north westerly and more northerly around Monday at the minute not enough to bring showers onto land but something to watch on the 12zs to see if the trend continues
  5. seabreeze86
    Basically radar watching Tuesday for that low , won’t know it’s exact track until the actual day Some ensembles are bring a much better northerly even at this short range due to a disturbance just of Norway, probably end up nothing but something to watch
  6. seabreeze86
    GFS ensembles are interesting at 96hrs for the first time they are many that go below -12hpa some as low as -16hpa. These were not there earlier and at such a early timescale This is for Redcar at 96hrs
  7. seabreeze86
    Not currently, maybe us right on the coast might catch a few. There is a front moving down which gets close but currently all models keep it out in the North Sea
  8. seabreeze86
    Yeah it’s on the ECM as well as the UKMO One to watch that’s for sure
  9. seabreeze86
    The rain shadow effect definitely exists but can also on other occasions pep up the precipitation. Don’t think it will come into play next week the bigger concern for us on lower levels is the warm sector that is low has
  10. seabreeze86
    Only makes a difference if it’s showers , if that was the case with fronts etc we would be dry as a bone most of the year
  11. seabreeze86
    Every chance for us next week but as ever it’s luck of the draw
  12. seabreeze86
    For balance in this thread the ECM brings plenty of snow chances for the North of England and Scotland
  13. seabreeze86
    One thing that has happened today is the initial northerly has trended colder across all models
  14. seabreeze86
    Two show events on the UKMO tonight for our part of the world
  15. seabreeze86
    The APERGE still rock solid in bringing a much cleaner northerly been consistent for a while now
  16. seabreeze86
    Because it’s not dry for many parts snow event for the north and extreme south Disturbances will pop up at short notice also if the ECM came off also
  17. seabreeze86
    The APERGE continues to show a much stronger block and a cleaner northerly
  18. seabreeze86
    In terms of frontal snowfall yes but you can guarantee disturbances would arise closer to the time
  19. seabreeze86
    Ridge going up it the Atlantic to support the Greenland high. Honestly this is the most crazy chase in a long time
  20. seabreeze86
    If it was the other way around with the GFS showing the cold solution and the other major models not we wouldn’t even give it 10% chance . But this is the UK and if it can go wrong it will
  21. seabreeze86
    This is what we want to see, heavy snow showers
  22. seabreeze86
    Yeah I think so can’t see the UKMO being that wrong at that range
  23. seabreeze86
    GEM trending the right way also obviously nowhere near as good as UKMO but miles better than the GFS
  24. seabreeze86
    UKMO is rock solid again fantastic model viewing , I really can see it being wrong over the GFS at day 5
  25. seabreeze86
    Excellent post Nick explained it far better than I could. We saw a similar improvement from yesterdays ECM 6z let’s hope the 12z follows it unlike yesterday
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