sandstorm2

Certainly the anticyclone is not as intense on the 1200 run but still produces an easterly for a couple of days, the ECM looks like it is backing off from its cold runs tonight, but then I am falling into the trap of comparing the 0600 with the 1200. I will give the trend a couple of days to settle down before making a judgement on what is going to happen next week. SS2

Uploaded it again and it seems to be there. Thanks again. SS2 It sems to have appeared in the posts that had it missing, weird indeed.

Good morning all, the models are now showing a return to cold or very cold next week, still a bit early to say it is definite but as a lover of cold I am optimistic. Had a slight dose of pessimism couple of days ago but with the way the GFS and the ECM are trending there could be quite a bit more snow coming our way. TEITS, when are you going to give us your forecasting secret that you mentioned yesterday? SS2

Will try and upload it again, don't know what I've done with it, thanks for the reply. SS2

Colder here today +1 in comparison to yesterdays +2.5 must have lost the influence of the warmer air coming through the Forth Clyde valley, some snow grains in the air. SS2

Can anyone tell me why my avatar has disappeared from my posts when I am adding a reply, it has been a football crest for ages now but when I look in my personal stuff it shows an old avatar. Thanks SS2

That is a most brilliant summary of what you think might happen and thank you for taking the time and effort to post it. SS2

GFS 1200 tries very hard to bring in the cold from the East but just fails, this is really in FI at +240, up till then we are in a run of more average temps. SS2

Just had a look at the latest rainfall radar, that is some really heavy stuff just off Lands End, and the satellite imagery is equally impressive, if that is snow that is coming then there are some really heavy falls coming your way my friends. SS2

Well thats fascinating TEITS and I can't wait to hear your explanation. Yesterday I was convinced that the mild atlantic would win but I have had a change of mind this morning after seeing the size of that high coming out of Siberia, wasn't it GP who said that the model performance would dip, that is what is now happening. SS2

Personally I think the GFS has 'gone off on one' except this time it is building a powerful anticyclone to our east with a bit of an aid from the AH, lets just wait for it folks, see if the ensembles back it up. SS"

At the moment my reading of the models + a lot of years watching the weather goes for a return to a lot less cold, can't really see where the next cold shot is coming from. I don't think I have read two consecutive posts that are going for the same scenario which just adds to the uncertainty in the models. The blocking which has been around for a couple of weeks seems to be pulling back, the atlantic on the other hand doesn't seem to be active enough to steamroller through, so we are at a bit of a stalemate. Less cold by the end of wed. for the foreseeable. SS2

Been a steady slow thaw here all day with the temp not moving much from 2c, lets see what tomorrow brings. SS2

I don't think all the met supercomputers in the world can sort this situation out, the models are at oddds with one another, ever seen a double pivot pendulum, it is totally unpredictable and that is the way the weather is at the moment. Think it is easier to read GP's posts as they will be as good an indication as to whats happening in the atmosphere as any of the models. SS2

This is the pressure chart if you go back into the same sight that gave you this chart there should be a link at the top for 850hp temps click on this and hey presto. SS2

All you guys are a lot more experienced than me but for the life of me I can only see milder southerlies on the charts at the end of this week. There is a lot of uncertainty though and the track of this low coming in is very problematic. SS2

Just had my 'warmest' day here for over a fortnight when the temp rose to 3c slight thaw of the lying snow, feels tropical in comparison to the -10's we have been having. SS2

oops looked at the 850's wrong chart. SS2

The control, mean and operational never get above zero, is that average for your area. SS2

Out to +132 on the GFS 0600 and it looks like it keeps the cold hanging on, the western approaches could be in the firing line, think +72 is FI right now, models are still struggling. SS2

Right out in the far reaches of FI the arctic high muscles its way in, couldn't happen could it? GP has recently done a very good post on the technical discussion thread and he is backing the cold to stay with us. SS2

Another excellent summary giving the state of the atmosphere, thamks for taking the time to post. SS2

Well despite the low twmps of the last couple of weeks and again tonight, -9.5 here at the moment, the GRand match has been cancelled this year. Bit of a shame really heard it was because the authorities couldn't guarantee the players safety. It could be another 25 or so years before they get the opportunity again. Would think they would have something in place safety wise. SS2

I wouldn,t think it would affect golf courses, after all look at the courses in America and even Russia that take a beating every year and still recover. SS2

I had resigned myself to some sort of less cold weather in a weeks time but the models are now showing tonight, that this cold looks like going on and on! Parts of northern spain look like taking a beating too. SS2