sandstorm2

Well we now have the three big models agreeing that next week is going to be cold, whether there is going to be snow is another problem, think thats the first time for a while that they have agreed, still a way off yet. SS2

SnoowBallz is correct that is the ECM 1200 at 240. SS2

Just wondering, but is that the low at +216, but you are right lets just hope that easterly materealises first. SS2

Think I will just start looking at one chart per day and that will probably be the 0600 and the previous nights UKMO and ECMWF otherwise I will go bonkers. TEITS said a few days ago that easterlies have a habit of disappearing off the chart and then return in the 72 hr timeframe, that is what is happening now. SS2

Thank you TEITS, I have learned something else today, it seems the more models that come out the more confused I am becoming lol. SS2

Looking at the 1200 GFS 850's look surprisingly high especially when they were so low just a couple of days ago. SS2

Very big changes on the 1200 GFS in comparison to yesterday, when will we know the truth. Can any of the more informed give an explanation, I really thought the block was going to get blown away by the atlantic. SS2

very good post, I was 12 in 1963 and remember it well, this health and safety issue is a real pain at times, it stops so many things getting done, yes we need a bit of common sense when it comes to health and safety but come on all things in moderation. I am amazed no-one has stopped the kids sledging down hills during the snowwy weather, and yes we will get another winter like that and it could be next year! SS2

To a mere mortal like myself and a complete amateur when it comes to weather forecasting, the models which I look at on a daily basis are starting to send me bonkers. Just when I think I have got something worked out and telling the family that they can dig out the tee shirts the models do an about turn. Yes I know it is in FI but nevertheless, there could be another cold spell round the corner and quite a potent one at that. So please weather Gods make me look good for a change and give me some nice consistemt models over the next couple of days. :unsure: SS2

Game set and match to the atlantic according to the ECMWF and the UKMO, even the GFS at +168 is caving in. SS2

I have a lot of regard for the UKMO and I have got that nagging feeling about their solution, these shortwaves are a pain in the proverbials. SS2 Thing is will the GFS have any credibility left if it is wrong. SS2

Have never seen the models with such massive differences, UKMO is a real stick in the mud, but one of them is wrong, maybe the ECMWF will be the arbitre. I was hoping that there would be some agreement by now but we are still waiting, can anyone give a reasonable explanation why models are so different, theu must have the same sort of data going into them. SS2

Out of all the models the GFS and possibly the GEM are the ones that have stuck to their guns regarding the easterly, at what point do we start deciding who is right and who is wrong? Certainly the GFS is bringing it into the reliable timeframe with quite a potent easterly flow developing by +120/144, the GEM is holding it back a bit to +216. The ECMWF gets us into a colder flow by the end of its run. Have no idea what the outcome will be but have a hunch the GFS with one or two tweaks is going to be right. Just a note to TEITS, keep doing what you do best and that is analyzing the models, you might be right or wrong but a lot of people on here look forward to reading your posts. SS2

Well, can only say that this is a belter of a run and at last it is coming into a timeframe that we can all maybe see happening, going further out and there is a really cold pool of air heading our way, 492 thicknesses, haven't seen that before in our neck of the woods. SS2

Frost fair on the Thames if that verified, unfortunately it won't happen. SS2

Was quite surprised with the drop in temps this morning, went to work at 0430 and it was 3c and at 9 o'clock it was 0c and snowing/graupelling new the Northerly was coming but have not seen this for a few years. SS2

Glad this thread is still open, they are all slitting their wrists and gnashing their teeth on the model output thread worrying about this phantom easterly that is still 10 days away. Currently enjoying the frequent snow showers and the colder temps today, at the moment the snow has stopped and the sky is a deep blue, good frost tonight and cold winters day topmorrow with some sunshine and I will be happy. SS2

That certainly is an impressive looking chart with 510 thicknesses covering the whole of England and Wales and parts of Eastern Scotland, long way off though. SS2

Yes the models do look great but they have disappointed so often I think I am turning into a grumpy old man. SS2

North of Scotland and right through central Scotland to the borders, check the 850's on the GFS. SS2

Think a lot of people on here have lost the plot, the cold weather over the weekend has been conveniently forgotten about, and with -10 uppers arriving in about 12 hours for some parts of the country everyone has turned their attention to the possible easterly in 10 days. Time for a reality check everyone. SS2

The only contribution I can make to the model debate is that there does not look like any mild zonality in the near future and what the charts are showing at the moment is cold for the foreseeable future......but then again that might change. SS2

The models are definitely trending cold, only worry is that with this forecasted easterly it is in the same timeframe as it was yesterday and this has happened time and time again. It really should be moving into the +168 timeframe instead of staying at +260 and beyond. SS2

Possibly the wrong thread, but when the AO is going negative does this mean that pressure is rising? Don't know a great deal about this aspect of the models hence the question. SS2

Afternoon everybody, has been positively tropical here today, temp got up to 9.9c warmest it has been since mid December. Looks like the cold is going to come back from about Thursday onwards and a possible severe spell developing later next week, saying with fingers crossed. SS2