sandstorm2

Aye, had a look at that myself, just love those Moscow charts, anybody know how accurate they are? SS2

Yes,you are quite right posting what you feel and think are right after all that is what this model discussion is all about, the charts that are currently showing must bring with them a bit of caution. I love cold snowy weather but there are a lot of vulnerable people out there who can't afford to have the heating on, so lets just be careful what we wish for. SS2

is it not unusual to see such agreement in the models at the +240 range, ie ECMWF, GFS and GEM and in fact they all show a similar way of getting there, must admit I am finding it difficult to keep my feet on the ground and I know +240 is FI land and it won't happen. SS2

Afternoon all, just had a look at the models after a couple of days break and I nearly fell off my seat! must admit though there has always been a suggestion of much colder weather round the corner but this looks just a tad over the top, do have a hunch though that this weekends northerly could last a bit longer than the average toppler. If and its a big if, if these charts came off or even something like them, this country would come to a standstill. SS2

Aye me too, although I am in the west of Scotland it will still be a welcome relief to see clear blue skies and cold temps with low temps at night. SS2

Sorry but I don't see much of an easterly on these charts, certainly not a raging one! What these charts are showing is a slack flow off the continent at best that lasts about 24 hrs. SS2

I am absolutely sick of this easterly that is not going to happen, I am hoping that we get a decent northerly in February, and also an easterly has got to be the proper variety with 2m temps below zero and a 20mph wind piling in the snow showers in to give a foot of snow, and while I am at it there seems to be a clique developing among the usual suspects on the model thread. SS2

Have just looked at the UKMO 1200 and it is actually very similar to the GFS at +120, 144, though as Tamara says UKMO sends the Northerly into Europe. SS2

Quite a big difference on the 1200 GFS, at +144 the small low sitting on the NW coast of Scotland has disappeared and the blocking high is ridging north leaving us in a weak northerly flow, not to cold but not mild either. One of the models is seriously barking up the wrong tree! SS2

Wouldn,t say the high was sinking, if anything it is moving in a NW direction. SS2

Phew, this model watching is becoming exhausting! just where does the high go now, this wasn't supposed to happen a week ago. It is odds on now that we are in for another spell of vey cold weather. SS2

Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

Quite amazing outputs over the last few days, if these number crunching supercomputers can't come up with a solution maybe its time we all went back to sticking our finger to the wind, that didn't sound right but you know what I mean. SS2

If you re looking for cold weather this mornings 0600 charts will bring a smile to the face, GFS brings frigid air over just about the whole country and so does the GEM at about +144, the ECM is not to shabby either at that range so there is obviously something afoot. A Scandi HP cell of 1060mb is exceptional, but will it verify. Isn't it amazing that the HP to the east of us just never gave up? Don't really see any resemblance at all to 8th Feb 91. SS2

GFS out to 168 and it is looking mild with quite a long draw of a southwesterly, HP to our South and low pressure to our NW gives us only one thing I am afraid mild weather. SS2 Could you give your reasons for saying that. SS2

I am just amazed at the lenght of time the HP has almost stayed in the same position for so long, it really has been knife edge stuff, a couple of hundred miles further west and we would really have had something to talk about. At the moment though the models look to have reahed a stalemate, but if I was a betting man I would go for an avearge winter from here on in. SS2

Having been lucky enough to have lived through the 62/63 freeze, I was 12 years old and, every day we were away sledging and ice skating on the local duck pond after school till well after it was dark, it doesn't really compare to the recent cold spell because the severity of the cold went on for so long, best part of 3 months, not 3 or 4 weeks. There was also a lot of damage done during 62/63 through water mains freezing and building regulations were changed because of that winter. People also lost there lives, and remember it was really in the days before central heating was common, most families spent their time huddled around the one and only coal fire. Getting up in the mornings was an endurance test when you were faced with magnificent patterns of ice on the inside of bedroom windows. The latest cold spell showed promise but was never anywhere near 62/63. Funny thing was my dad would tell me that this was nothing compared to 47! SS2 SS2

Definitely agree there, you just beat me to it, I was just about to post mentioning the threat of snow next wed thurs, nothing is yet set in stone. SS2

Phenomenal charts in FI but with the recent chopping and changing its still in the lap of the weather gods. Is +96 FI? I think it is coming into the reliable timeframe, a few days ago I posted that the easterly would suddenly appear on our doorstep T +24. Thank you for sharing your secret sign with us TEITS and I hope your health improves soon. SS2

GFS 1200 out to +96 and it is bringing in a continental infleunce again, continues to confound. SS2

Just looked at the most recent models and it is very difficult to come to any sort of conclusion, but with the way the atlantic and the jet are looking it would be very difficult to go against less cold weather affecting the UK next week. Have to accept what the more knowledgeable members are saying too and that is to look at the models more subjectively and give a more honest commentary on their output. SS2 PS can't wait for that sign TEITS.

No, TEITS is only going to reveal his secret forecast tool if he is correct about the easterly, he really put his head on the chopping block with that one saying it has never failed him since he was 10. Anyway back to the models and I am still thinking that the massive HP to the East is going to influence our weather with a fair bit of snow next week. There is a lot of talk about the models not being programmed to deal with battle ground situations, do they not just swallow an enormous amount of info and spit out a chart regardless of whether the computer has seen this sort of thing before or not. We have all these models at our disposal produced by powerful computers and we still choose to believe that 'they haven't seen this before'. SS" SS2

Have just had a quick look at the models and I am still going to go with cold returning from the East next week. The Siberian HP is very intense again 1070mb which (must be close to the record) cannot be discounted. I don't know much about the physics of the atmosphere, it is just a gut feeling I have that we will be under the influence of continental air next week, I am still thinking of GP's advice that the models would dip in performance. This is what is happening now one day showing cold the next less cold. All of a sudden the severe cold will be on our doorstep at 24hrs notice thats the way of these easterly outbreaks. SS2

I am amazed tonight at the number of members that are debating the models from +144 onwards, now I know that the model discussion is to discuss the variation in the models but these charts very rarely verify. SS2