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m1chaels

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Everything posted by m1chaels

  1. m1chaels
    Given recent history only a fool would predict below average (71-00)...4.1 for me please
  2. m1chaels
    4.3 for me please
  3. m1chaels
    Winter already? - put me down for a very late 4.9 I think it is very interesting that xmas day has the lowest max cet and lowest min cet - I guess there is no adjustment made in respec tof activity levels but the differential looks big enough to be statistically significant demonstration that human activity is affecting values every day....or of course that data collection on xmas day is less robust....
  4. m1chaels
    Anyone with a rain gauge in St Albans as apparently it was torrential here about 4pm (when I was in London)?
  5. m1chaels
    Any thoughts for Thursday yet.....
  6. m1chaels
    We have had ensemble mean agreement of a 'cold plunge' a couple of times already in March only to see it downgraded to the point of disappearing, does anyone really think this time will be different?
  7. m1chaels
    You can tell the (us) coldies have given up when with a MLB forecast no one is asking about the possibility of retrogression and undercuts
  8. m1chaels
    6.4 From cool zonal rather than anticyclonic or Easterly influenced. Does March see one of the largest jumps from 61-90 to 71-00?
  9. m1chaels
    So are we expecting any surprise snowfall tomorrow night for the snow depth cup?!
  10. m1chaels
    This morning on TV they said all of 60 homes had been flooded on the Sommerset Levels - a fraction of those flooded elsewhere in the country - but obviously when it is posh people with good PR skills then we should bend over backwards to spend £10m dredging their rivers rather than wasting it on doctors and hospitals.
  11. m1chaels
    5.5, working on the basis that as I am going to be wrong anyway it doesn't matter that I am late.
  12. m1chaels
    A very middle of the road 5.0 for me please
  13. m1chaels
    Lots of guesses at or just below average - I can't see anything to dispute that but will go just below the 71-00 average as I think the most recent 30 year average is slightly impacted by the anomaly so 4.8 for me please.
  14. m1chaels
    How bad a storm is currently forecast, I believe 87 had sustained speeds in the high 60s and gusts over 100 - at the moment we seem to be talking a fair bit lower for both and I assume damage is likely to be roughly proportional to square of wind speed? Obviously aggregating factors for damage are the trees still in leaf and the saturated soft ground....
  15. m1chaels
    So what about the snow mixed in to the heavy showers over the Chilterns that they mentioned this AM - is it still on for tonight/tomorrow?!
  16. m1chaels
    I do like this game after all
  17. m1chaels
    Firstly a confession, I haven't been following the models so this is an even less educated guess than normal. However based entirely on the recent humidity driven warmth in the SE I am going for noticeably above average, 12.5 degrees, probably the SE more than this above but pegged back by cloudier weather further north and east although wind and cloud tending to keep minima up.
  18. m1chaels
    We must be near neighbours, I think the trick is to pretend its January and think how pretty it is to watch the snow falling gently past the trees....
  19. m1chaels
    So the radar showed a big area of showers over East Anglia but it has rapidly 'died' over the last hour rather than spreading west. Anyone weather knowledgeable able to explain why as I thought normally as more solar energy is input during the day showers tend to build rather than die?
  20. m1chaels
    I always think it look silly to go for a cold month following a cold month as it looks like short term thinking rather than big picture and it puts me in the 'cluster' of others which suggests i am just going with the consensus...however I am guessing 7.5
  21. m1chaels
    So does that mean that the other 80% 'chance' is of most of the country remaining under cold uppers with a cold easterly
  22. m1chaels
    This morning BBC weather mentioned 'an early frost' so perhaps it could lie until it is washed away by the rain - again snow lying for an hour in the dark is not of that much value...
  23. m1chaels
    Above the racing cumulus there seems to be a flat sheet of cloud - is this prefrontal cloud from the channel depression that may be too far south to give much snow to most but too far north that it's front are reducing any convective activity
  24. m1chaels
    Any updates to the meto warnings as I can't access them at work?
  25. m1chaels
    I may be wrong but I think the issue here is that the model ensembles are 'initial condition pertubations' with exactly the same deterministic model applied to each perturbation so if the model is wrong for one it can be wrong for all, in some situations a small divergence in initial conditions has little short term impact on the modelled future and this results in 'good ensemble agreement', in other situations small differences in inital conditions quickly result in divergent solutions. However I think there is a tendancy for people to think of the ensemble runs and their outer bounds as some sort of probability distribution. When the BoE forecast inflation they actually use a fixed start point but the model is not completely deterministic - it is instead subject to random fluctuation at each time period. A large number (10s of thousands in a typical Monte-carlo simulation, compare this to 20/51 ensembles) of model runs are made and with a probability distribution applied to whether more or less likely random changes take place in each time step there is generated a 'most likely' central path with divergent paths becoming less and less frequently observed the further they are from the central forecast.
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