m1chaels

Yep, BBC forecast for Sunday now down to 9 degrees - could be some local lowest June maxes broken? I am sure this year there has been a strong correlation between the bad weather and the bank holidays, even to the point of last Monday which would have been a bank holiday turning out hot and sunny and next Monday forecast to be cold and wet. I know all about confimation bias and all that but it does seem a remarkable coincidence

For our bit of the SE they are forecasting a daytime max of only 10 degrees on Sunday - is this not a bit unusual for June?

Then again in Hertfordshire at 4pm it was 4 degrees as a light shower came through so it doesn't have that far to fall. Depends on the wind I guess.

Any one in St Albans got any suggestions for a good sleding spot - would need to be n-facing so it still had a base from last weekends snow?

I don't have a clue re Friday but WAA is I think Warm Air Advection and basically referes to low pressure systems heading north off the US East seaboard taking warm air up in to the artic rather than as normally happens heading west towards the UK. (I think the way it is then supposed to work is that displaced cold artic air then comes south somewhere else...like for example over the UK)

Is 5.3 confirmed?

For an event that was supopsed to favour the east why is it all the reports of snow have come from much further west? Are we expecting convetive activity tomorrow as was originally pormised still? And the big one - is anyone attempting to make anyhting of this weekend's forecast yet? No weather warnings from the met I notice...

I was wondering if it related to the op being run in higher resolution (is this correct?). I think it is fairly generally agreed that the reason that cold synopics in FI often do not come to fruition is that at longer range the models can not pick up the small pertubations that become short waves that then modify the cold synoptics. If the op is run in higher resolution then it may model some of these modifying short waves that the lower resolution ensemble runs do not pick up - hence they show the cold FI solutions when the OP does not? Just a thought from an observer and I am sure the more experienced and knowledgeable of the models will be able to expain why I am wrong.

Hmm - with rather 'unusual' blocking and forecast temperatures that may move from 'its a bit chilly' to 'its a real issue' I may have to question this post...now where is that jet?

If we are doing conspiracy theories can I add the particularly Northern / Eastern track the big hurricanes seem to be taking this year in to the mix?!

6.4

How about the Jan 91 windstorm (about the 23rd?) - does anyone have the charts? Just thinking that being winter might parallel more closely?