Aaron

11.3mm overnight, the most rain in one day here.

Hurricane Irene to hit New York City? Certainly seems possible, even as a Cat 2 hurricane. If it does, it will be the first direct hit from a hurricane since the 19th century. What does anyone else think?

9.9c, overcast and raining. 11.3mm of rain overnight.

Is it me, or has that rain in the south west just partly fizzled away?

Isn't it heat lightning, when the storm is too far away to hear thunder? I've never seen it before myself but it's not that rare, and has probably occurred here.

This system is moving east much less slowly than I thought it would, so I hope we get a proper good soaking!

It's the same in France and Germany. Neither country are any better prepared for snow due to the infrequency of major snow events, especially over the past 20 years.

Tonight might have some thunder mixed in. I'm hoping so, but I'm just looking forward to proper sustained rain of we don't miss out on it (which we probably won't but knowing this location..)

It's dry here too. All months this year are below-average except February for rainfall. The last significant rainfall month here was November 2009 which had over 111 mm of rain.

Last year the first snowfall was in September in the Cairngorms, maybe we could see a repeat? I hope so. I'm guessing snowfall in June would be considered the last snowfall, while snowfall in August or September would be considered the first.

Yeah below average rain this summer for me too. Average temps too.

The heat isn't here for storms in France to sustain themselves. As they move over the channel, they will die out, they are fueled by the current heatwave on the continent.

On a few model runs the 0C isotherm reached northern Scotland. There's a few cold nights to come soon, with temperatures in frost hollows down to around 3c this August, so the first ground frost for many could be in September, with air frost in the usual locations (Shap, Braemar etc) seems likely too.

Well, the south east has had a lot more storms than here, of course a lot of them localised, but I remember in late June this year when the south/east got some proper torrential downpours, and a friend in Hampshire has told me he reported over 100 mm in June and oover 70 mm in July, nothing of the sort here!

Indeed. Looks like you in the South East will once again steal the storms, leaving the rest of us bone dry

Agreed, CreweCold. I think we are long overdue a reminder of how cold and snowy February can be. Interesting. Last year we got 25 cm at best, which was certainly enough to satisfy me, so a repeat would be good, but I would like to exceed 1 foot of snow for the first time since the 90's!

I remember there was some warm days last September, but it was average, but better than the preceding August no doubt! Some of the model output shows consistent northern blocking. Maybe we could see our first frost come late September? I hope so.

Looks interesting, the Met Office yellow warning has extended further north, but we appear to be too far north. But these kind of set ups do often deliver nationwide thunderstorms, as stated earlier, but we'll see. Still awaiting my first proper thunderstorm since 15 June 2009 when the vast majority of England was effected by severe storms.

Feeling very Autumnal, especially yesterday. Went for a walk around the local park/countryside, leaves falling off trees, damp, lots of puddles, muddy. Saw some lovely berries in my garden too. Of course this has no effect on winter, but still, gives us some hope!

Overcast and damp. 13.9c

Cloudy, 18.7c We maxed at 20.1c.

Windy, damp, occasional rain. 15.3c

You make a valid point. about the rambling on, but it could happen (the Maunder Minimum type event). It might seem unlikely but there is nothing to say it won't happen in our life times at some point. Last winter was overall cold due to the extraordinary December, and slightly below average January. Similar to 2009 - 2010, it was mostly confined to January but a cold winter it was nonetheless. And what statistics are they? Three cold winters in a row have occurred before and will occur again. (I exclude the winter of 2008 - 2009 which wasn't that cold, just snowy in the south-east) This winter might be "typical" (which, for most people, means dull, leaden skies and endless rain), or it might be colder than normal (which, for most people, means more clear crisp days with blue skies). I'm sure we all have our preferred outcome but our preferences do not matter and I'm sure posting models which change on a daily basis isn't helping your case at all. This before, showed below-average conditions throughout all six months. Now it shows a cold December and January. They change regularly, so are effectively a waste of time.

Breezy, 13c. Another poor forecast by the Met Office, hours of rain turned out to be half an hour of moderate rain. Doesn't look like Cumbria will be getting it's 50 - 100 mm!

Wunderground would be best for that. Met Office stations don't portray rainfall correctly since localised thunderstorms can make all the difference.