SNOW GO

I know looks like a bit of a potential snowfest (touch wood) for us Northwesterners late week. In terms of tommorow though it still is touch and go with any decent snowfall accumalations most likely IMO above 200m.

I think it will be touch and go in terms of snow for the majority of low lying areas tommorow with probably a wintry mix of icy rain then turning to light sleet/perhaps wet snow anywhere inland later on in the day but with any considerable accumalations of snow developing roughly above 200m.

4cm currently from frequent Heavy snow showers from around morning lying in some spots here in Sandbach. The roads are a nightmare tonight particulary the Crewe-Sandbach bypass and up to Macclesfield with alot of accidents and gridlocked traffic right up to Manchester and down to Stoke on the M6 with the roads on my estate a complete slushy ice rink Just goes to show how the Cheshire Gap effect can deliver even when you least expect it!! :smiliz19: http://twitpic.com/7u0j5h - A picture from earlier this morning as the Snow began to arrive in Sandbach town centre!

Heard over on the Met Monkey forum that ex Accu Weather forecaster Joe laminate floori is going for a cold European Winter particulary during January and February. An interesting all be it very cold looking preliminary forecast also from Weather Blogger Mark Vogan, worth a look if you have got a moment. http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/ I am hoping Cheshire/North West of England get some decent snowfall this year all though we have seen substantial enough cold and snow 10-15 cm max last year with -15- -18c lows during the past 2 winters notably on the 5th Jan 2010 where the entire North west of england and then Midlands were engulfed in a direct N- NW Irish Sea, Cheshire Gap snow streamer that seemed to develop from nowhere giving locally blizzzard conditions for a time with accumalations up to 20-30cm in Manchester City centre as well as the Stockport area and around 15-25cm in the surrounding areas of Cheshire, Gtr Manchester, Merseyside and the Wirral the heaviest seen in Manchester city centre since 1978/79. Despite this though and fellow North westerners and to an extent Midland members will probably agree we tend to get the short straw when it comes to large scale snowfall events with the heaviest snowfall often being in the extreme south east and North east giving us little chance in getting in on the action in recent winters. Heres hoping the tables are turned around this year!!

A decent line of heavy showers on the radar developing now across Merseyside arching northwards across West Lancashire still clear blue skies here in South Cheshire though .

June and July look similar to last year at the moment on the CFS dry, warm and generally fine for June and Early July with things going progressively downhill from the North late July into August. A shame I suppose as August the traditional holiday month has not been decent weather wise in years perhaps as far back as 2003 up here. Overall though no real signs from the CFS just yet of any 1976 scenario the Net Weather forecast suggests B) . http://www.cpc.ncep....3/euPrecMon.gif - Precipitation

Shades and BBQ B) at the ready then and oh yes the umbrella just in case !!

Got down to -6c last night here in Crewe the coldest night so far this January brrr!! Currently -4c and frosty with the sun just beginning to peak through the cloud.

Another cold start here in South Cheshire with some very thick mist and fog overnight and early this morning only just gradually clearing with according to my weather station a light sleet shower at around 6am currently temps are around 0-2c so feeling chilly out and about.

Does anybody know why the Met Office/BBC have on there graphics Cheshire down for snow early tommorow?? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_weather.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/4274?area=CW11

1.9C please !! A cool-cold month but no where near as bad as December but prehaps turning very cold for short snaps paticulary towards the end of the month with only brief milder spells mainly only seen for any length of time in the South and West at the start of the month. Coldest always to the East closer to the continental cold.

Welcome to the forum heatandsnow nice to see you on here as well as Met Monkey a very good and well explained forecast in my view.

6.5c please depending on how long this Atlantic driven spell lasts, I think despite this we could see a colder second half, like what happened in October maybe with a higher risk of some snow??

Despite me having a fairly new house it is nowhere near warm when cold weather from the North and East arrives paticulary as my living room and kitchen only have one small radiator each making the most lived in rooms insanely cold in Winter In terms of turning on the heating I have only put it on once this week and that was to dry some washing. Next week though may see the heating being turned on, on a more regular basis as we make that slide torwards Winter. I wish I could afford an AGA they sound great !

I think overall October will be wet and at times a very windy month paticulary around the start and end of the month with temperatures near to average in the South and slightly below average in the North paticulary later in the month with Scotland perhaps seeing some patchy low level snow during any northerlys. I would go currently for at a total guess 10.2c perhaps slightly lower than this if there is a widespread cold spell.

Those two days 20th and 22cnd of December saw here in Crewe not much at all snow wise but go 15-20 miles north where I was visiting relatives in Poynton and Hyde there was snow and thick ice on the ground sometimes living in South Cheshire is sometimes very annoying if you like severe weather conditions because the North of the county can be so different when severe weather hits..

I agree with what your saying and normally your comment that it is unlikely we in the UK would tap into the cold out East unless in a near perfect set up would be more than correct but in my humble opinion we are not in normal circumstances now because of several important factors the sun although now not as quiet as it has been is not acting normally, the gulf stream is not acting normally, the freak weather around the world this Summer eg: Pakistan floods, China floods and landslides,Very cold Winter conditions in some parts of the Southern Hemisphere and the Russian Heatwave are not normal.Surely these are not all by accident or the usual claim of Global Warming?? I dont agree with the Ice Age Now extreme cold theory but I believe we may be entering a cooler phase of weather that may bring us increasingly colder Winters that countries who do not benifit from our milder air flow see on a more regular basis. In terms of this Winter though despite the increasing number of people now including myself going for a colder than average Winter overall, it still is a bit of a wait and see scenario that may throw up some nice surprises. :drinks:

Keeping with the cold theme I have just come across this forecast(Sorry if it has been posted already on here) that goes for a cold-very cold Winter overall for the UK and Europe. Not sure how accurate this forecast is but would provide some very chilly conditions by the looks of things. With a repeat of last Winter or worse maybe?? :drinks: All exciting looking stuff if you like the cold and snow! Blocking looks like it may appear again as well if you go by this forecast. http://icecap.us/ima...NTER_201011.pdf Quote from the forecast: The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks very cold in Europe and western Asia, while ti retreats west in the United States. Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be again a major factor.

We are only in September and this paticular chart is way out in terms of model accuracy but interestingly the Meteociel model this evening is showing some very chilly looking charts for the end of the month that ties in well with The Weather Outlooks forecast for unusual cold for some parts in the coming weeks. Will a taste of Winter arrive early? I guess we will have to wait and see.

Foxy On Weather Cheryl continues to be odd, now now, miaow, enough's enough, truce Cole-girl? Apart from the odd spat or two at PWS Towers, the great debate at present is the banter on the web about winter 2010/11, and how it will turn out. 'Good question' I said to Cheryl, 'Come on then clever!' she said to me. 'My guess is that winter will still fall between December and early March' I replied. Seriously.... As I see it, not PWS, (we'll wait for Mr P to roll out one of his masterpieces at a later date), this winter looks on a par with last year, perhaps not as bad. This is my own research done in my sparetime, (not on company time I promise Mr P), perish the thought! However, I won't be subscribing to the crackpots and their 'frozen stiff for three months under a ton of snow' nonsense, that's highly unlikely, and in the current mix of affairs, the replication of last year's winter doesn't add up either, not from where I'm sitting. A generalised cold theme yes, but similar snowfall amounts, mmm, I don't think so. I will be buying boots for winter, (the footware, not the chain of chemists), but let me tell you it's a fashion thing, just to keep my feet warm. Nothing to do with red berries on trees, or cows pointing one way in a field, although, yes, go on then, add 'Lisa buying boots' as weather folklore for a harsh winter. The projections PWS have at present take us up to the end of February 2011, and they make for interesting reading. If released now, it would be strongly at odds with current thinking, but not totally at odds with the thinking of the past 10 years, when you take a chunk of past data, rather than a thin slice of the present stats to hand. We'll see, but calling it now would be a bit daft, I mean, who'd do that? Old misery won't let me have a 'Twitter' account, ain't he mean? Bet Cheryl gets one! Catch you again, remember our Mr Powell is on twitter - 'nullGuru' Lisa Fox Chief Assistant Forecaster. Saturday September 4th 2010 A bit off topic here but I have just come across this on the Positive Weather Soloutions website and it suggests in a rather pathetic un professional way that they are already backtracking on this Winters so called bitter cold and snow same as last year forecast there own head forecaster Jon Powell was predicting and reported in the media way back in Spring? Sometimes I dont get this weather organisation as they seem to bring out these sensationalist claims like the BBQ Summer one and then try and either blame it on the Met Office or backtrack and change the original forecast massively. I dont know about anyone else on the forum but I think they just fell lucky last Winter as most of this year the LRFS and even short range forecasts from them have been very poor compared to the likes of Net Weather, The Weather Outlook and even the Met Office month ahead wise! Its probably just me turning grumpy with my old age but is anybody else fed up with the poor forecasting PWS have been giving us this year??

I know I thought the same as you at first that whatever the name of the guy was a bit on the extreme attention seeking side. But some of the stuff he talks about does have some substance behind it and he also I think forecast well in advance last Winters cold so prehaps he could be right after all?? Even if the papers think he is some sort of mad man!! In terms of the Winter 2010/11 thread some said it was a bit early to discuss this Winter a shame closing a good and popular thread down if you ask me but not long a wait now I guess.

As the Winter 2010/11 area has been closed on here I did not know where to post this link I found via the Daily Mails Winter forum http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/ at times its a bit OTT Ice Age now sort of stuff but does mention about the Jet stream and its possible future effects on the UKs weather.

I dont agree at all with the BBC/Met Office Global warming excuses what they seem to use now for any severe weather event ! In my humble opinion though last Winter that was extreme for some and average for others was only a hint at some much colder Winters to come not as OTT :o as a mini ice age some people suggest we are heading into but a gradual cool down to Winters more like some memorable ones of the 40s 50s 60s and even 70s. Interestingly also last Winter was very simmilar to the Winter before the big one that was 1963. Could it happen again soon?? The Met Office realy is on its own now when it comes to climate change as it often takes the side of global warming where as real climate change can include B) warmer and colder periods even times of Global cooling that the arriving La Nina may soon bring. So a very cold and snowy Winter being a once in a 200 year event is certainly not a true statement whether you believe in Global warming or not. Sorry rant over! :lol:

Overview A rather chilly and often unsettled autumn is expected, with very windy conditions at times, and several chances of early snow in Scotland, and possibly even further south later on in November. Temperature Temperatures are expected to be slightly below the long term average over the three month period. Precipitation Over the three month period rainfall levels are generally expected to be slightly above average. Overall we expect levels to be between 95% to 115%. September Temperature: Close to or slightly below average Precipitation: Close to average First half Starting settled with a good deal of fine weather and close to average temperatures. Through the second week of the month a change to unsettled conditions is expected to develop in the south and west, with the possibility of heavy rainfall in these regions. Probably remaining drier in northern and eastern parts.. Second half We expect unsettled weather during this period. For a time it is may turn unseasonably cold, with the risk of sleet or snow showers over the Scottish mountains, and possibly even lower levels in Scotland for a time. Overnight frost may extend quite widely and a long way south before temperatures begin to recover and further spells of rain develop. google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);October Temperature: Close to or slightly below average Precipitation: Above average First half Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially to northern areas. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected to develop frequently, with the likelihood of very windy conditions at times. The best of the drier spells are expected in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average, but it may well be rather cool in the north. Second half Unsettled weather is expected to affect all areas during this period. Very stormy conditions are expected to develop at times with strong winds and heavy rain at times. Temperatures generally below average in the north making it cold enough at times for sleet or snow over high ground in Scotland. In the south some warmer incursions are likely, but overall temperatures are likely to be slightly below average. November Temperature: Slightly below or below average Precipitation: Close to or slightly above average First half Changeable weather during much of the forecast period. Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average with the chance of some snow at times over the Scottish hills. Although wet and windy weather is expected at times, there is also a significant chance of high pressure pushing across the UK at times, giving milder and drier interludes. Second half Unsettled and at times cold weather is expected to affect most of the country, with widespread showers or longer spells of rain. During the period we expect a significant chance of it turning cold enough at times for heavy snowfall to develop in northern regions, with a chance of wintry conditions extending further south for a time. Temperatures during this period are likely to be below the seasonal average. Forecast Issued 31/08/2010 (TWO) The Weather Outlook Autumn forecast is now out and is overall forecasting a chilly and unsettled Autumn with a risk of a taste of Winter as early as November. TWO I believe got this Summer spot on being the only online LRF provider forecasting in advance the miserable very unsettled and cooler than average August and generally are very accurate compared to the likes of PWS and The Weather Online LRFs.

It is good for trains although I dont know much about them though! But I wish it would be better at delivering some more severe weather at times paticulary during Winter, The Polar Express maybe? Ha ha bad joke I know!