SNOW GO

Here in Crewe around 6am we had a very heavy shower with the sky looking very dark another storm or heavy shower might be on its way.

Granada News now saying Met office warning of localised very heavy downpours overnight for the North West.

I am about 2 miles away from the centre out in Weston the rain however has now slowed down to drizzle however here after a very brief heavy spell with a few rumbles of thunder. I think the rain showers forecast for the early hours and tommorow will maybe be on the heavy side though.

Some Heavy rain has just started where I am but your right the best of the action does look like its moving slowly east.

Just heard several large claps of thunder and a :)few flashes of lightning here in Crewe. Is a big storm on the way??

Fingers crossed:) some make it over South Cheshire way looking at the radar I might just be in with a chance if Staffordshire is beginning to see them pop up are these showers at all thundery anywhere yet??

Rain still moderate-light here in Crewe with very dark stormy skies the only problem no storms to speak of apart from the odd rumble.

Its currently very dark here in Crewe, Cheshire with the odd distant rumble now and then. The rain however has turned in the last 10 mins however from heavy-light Heres hoping for a storm soon.

BBC North West Tonight reporting flash floods in parts of Merseyside and Liverpool city centre.

2009/10s:cold: Winter here in the North West was a fantastic Winter if you like me love snow and crisp cold days although we in South Cheshire missed out on any of the white stuff GTR Manchester northwards saw in December the night of the 4th and the day time of the 5th of January 2010 were very snowy with early morning very heavy snowfall leaving a snow total of 18cm on my drive with then even colder very icy -15c even recorded on the 7th conditions persisting right through to around mid January. Our second major snowfall in late Feb delivered also alot of snow but melted quickly as the cold was much less severe than in January . I am no forecaster but I would say at this early stage this Winter will be less severe in duration than 2009/10 but judging by these CFS charts the cold will return for most during the early winter at least. There is what looks like a decent Summer fingers crossed though before we approach Winters bleakness.

Can the dry spell last - and a sneak preview of next winter BBCS PAUL HUDSONS THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THIS SUMMER +HINTING AT A ANOTHER COLD WINTER? Paul Hudson | 15:01 UK time, Friday, 18 June 2010 Rainfall across the UK has been well below average so far this year. In fact across the UK it's been the driest January to May since 1964. This is due to the almost complete absence of our usual rain bearing weather systems, which normally bring unsettled weather from the West. Since December of last year, the atmosphere has been 'blocked', preventing the normal sequence of weather fronts moving across the UK. Instead, high pressure has been dominant, leading to a distinct lask of rainfall. Although there is no sign that we are about to see a resumption of our more normal mobile pattern of weather anytime soon, it does look as though conditions could become much more unsettled towards the end of next week, meaning potentially much wetter conditions for parts of the UK. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting) chart shown below for next saturday indicates low pressure in charge by that time. Looking even further ahead, I thought the latest forecast temperature charts from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were very interesting. Note how virtually the whole of Europe through Autumn and next Winter is once more colder than average. It's a long way off, but it suggests that weather patterns are likely to remain more blocked than normal across Europe. With average solar activity continuing to be weak, coupled with the likelihood of developing La Nina conditions (cooling of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean) later this year, the odds on a cold winter across Europe must once again be higher than normal.

Here in Cheshire we stay mainly the driest in the North West over the Summer period as the north of the region Lancashire and Cumbria tend to get the heaviest rain but this current prolonged dry spell despite the recent brief downpours is not the norm for the North West of England and its beginning to show, the grass on my lawn has not looked this yellow, brown colour since the 2003 heatwave that was shorter in duration than this mild but dry spell. We may not like it but if we dont want to look like the South of Spain in Summer we need the rain, whether we be in the South or North of the Uk.

Average looking model runs this morning with the GFS looking dry and settled with mild but not at this stage very warm conditions. Comfortable weather I guess.

Widespread very heavy rain risk for Sunday or just a dodgy run??

The BBC going for thundery action torwards the East at the weekend where as Met monkey going for the North and midlands at moderate risk of thunderstorms from Sunday. Which one will be right?

A long way away yet but after next weeks washout drier, warmer weather maybe returning??

By the looks of the latest GFS the unsettled conditions look the most likely to set in by next week, prehaps with some thundery action depending on how long we hang on to the higher temperatures.

This Summer looks to me at the moment as a real mixed bag possibly with some thundery fireworks due to some humid conditions maybe? As for Winter 2010/11 early days yet I guess but I would go for again a cold winter prehaps not as severe in duration as 2009/10s BIG FREEZE but on a scale maybe of the 2008/9 winter that saw the large London snowfall in the early February of 2009.

Some warmer weather still in the running but currently as always the typical UK weather has to through a spanner in the works in the potential of heavy rain as the chart shows as we approach the weekend of the 22cnd/23rd of May

JUST A GUESS SUMMER FORECAST BUT! I would go for if we dont stay in this current cool brr pattern or Iceland erupts and impacts on our climate, we should be in for an okay Summer period. If we are lucky we may see the first signs of a warm up in weather by Late May this is IF we are lucky however and if we stay in the current cool pattern we are unlikely to see a warm up till maybe even around mid June if the cool weather stays beyond that who knows!! . May temperature wise unless we see a unlikely but still possible late heatwave will certainly see temperatures fall below average. June I think will be average temperature wise with some rain at times but with some fine weather mixed in as well. The temperatures for June rely on how soon a warm up begins however. July I think will be a warm and humid month on the whole but with outbreaks of rain/potential thunderstorms for the second half of the month. Early-mid August could see the warmest day of the year as the humid conditions I think may continue whether it will be fine weather I dont know as the humid conditions like July may be the trigger for some thundery showers. This Summer though I think will be a bit of a waiting game to see what patterns develop but currently I dont think I would go for a BBQ or washout summer but temperatures above average in July and August are possible. In my opinion I think Summer 2010 looks like to be an average Joe in terms of Summers are concerned but as ever we can all be proved very wrong, a certain Met office springs to mind!!

WOWZERS!! WHAT A WARM UP IF THIS CHART COMES OFF MORE MODEL RUNS NEEDED THOUGH BEFORE WE GRAB THE SHADES AND SUNHAT!!

I CANT BELIEVE THAT GFS ITS MAY FOR GOODNESS SAKE! ON THE BRIGHT SIDE THOUGH THE GFS CAN CHANGE LIKE THE WIND ANYWAY BUT IF THESE FIGURES COME UP ON A COUPLE MORE RUNS GET READY TO BRRR!!

WHAT A GREAT NORTHERLY STYLE START TO SUMMER WE LOOK FORWARD TOO NOT!

I WOULD SAY 11.0C A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START THEN GRADUALLY WARMING UP I HOPE.

The Predicted thundery showers may give us all a soaking on Sunday though but this April yes did seem up here in Cheshire a very dry April with only one very light overnight shower mid month. Could this mean a Washout Summer? I hope not! All those further south than me, paticulary the dry south east probably got no rainfall at all this month certainly strange for April but I guess thats the Uk weather for you!