kold weather

Today is a good example, it has definately been better than what was forecasted a few days ago and just because things have been poor so far doesn't mean ieverything will trend worse. Weather just doesn't work that way. As others have said today is the sort of day we've been waiting for down here in the south for some time. Personally still waiting for 20c but the difference between 19 and 20c is really fairly negligible in strong sunshine so I'm more than satisfied. Shame tomorrow looks pretty shocking.

I'm not sure we've really had any strong blocking signal yet of any kind other than to our north, which you'd expect with a combination of waning ssw effects and the final warming. At some point that will shift as we lose both the above, see a shifting of wavelengths as we head towards summer proper and start to see el nino imprint and couple into the summer. Of course all that doesn't mean we dont just shift into another poor pattern like we saw in 2012, and globally as well as here there are shades of 2021 as well with strong Canadian heat dome developing.

Still way too early to tell, we've seen so many seasons look terrible to start only to flip just as we reach peak (sadly we've the opposite happen too many times as well). I've still got a feeling we will get at least one hot month, even if it is more convective in nature than we've seen in recent years. I've also got a gut feeling we will also get a shocker of a 2-3 week period as well which is basically a wash out.

Yeah absolutely no denying down here 20c is getting very late. With that being said I think with cloud breaking up we may see a fairly widespread 20c across the region in the end. Still doesn't deter from the fact we are unambiguously late down here.

First part of May has been running drier than normal but that's obviously about to end once yesterday and today's rain gets added into the mix. I suspect we won't be going back below average until the month is over. Not to say that means it's going to be terrible, hopefully rain us more convective in nature this month rather than weak craggy stalled out fronts.

I have to agree, this notion that 2020 peak was poor is slightly baffling. It almost suffers a reverse 2021, where the true horror of mid June-July 2021 is somewhat masked by better weather before and afterwards down here. But in that period of 2020 we had a top 10 hottest day at the end of July, a couple of other top 10 days in August (though I think 22 has kicked one of them out now) and probably one of the strongest heatwaves we've seen in terms of sustained heat at that level. I can't square that with being poor.

Today has been perfectly acceptable. Some cloud at times but warm enough still to be pretty pleasant. Still searching for a 20c in this neck of the woods as well, inching closer thankfully.

Id throw 2021 into the average but regional because it was definately on the poorer side down here, and can't even lick the boots of those other 3 in the top 2 tiers. I guess you are coming at from a more northern point though. Down here I'd say it might well rank in the poor category, though even then it did have the odd spell of decent sunny weather, particularly start of June was pretty golden before we had a disaster of a 3-4 week period here (I think locally we were like 280% of average rainfall, maybe 50% of sunshine in that period, absolute disaster here!)

21 is difficult to rank down here, because we did have a great first 10 days of June, and that decent spell in July. However inbetween it was one of the worst summer experiences I've known in my lifetime and August was poor as well. I will say though 21 will get good, even rave reviews further north you go. I'd imagine for Scotland/N.Ireland it'd rank in the tier just below some of the legendary summers

Just goes to show how much expectation matters versus what you actually get. What for the North is actually bang a erage or even ok, for the south is seen as subpar. I do however standby the statement it has been a relatively poor April in the SE. No disaster, but below par, especially so compared to April of recent years which even when cooler like 21 tended to be ok in other aspects.

Maybe a shot at 20-21c tomorrow but alot will depend on how quickly that front comes up from the south. UKV basically has nothing so we keep brightness most of the afternoon in the SE, meanwhile it has to be said the majority of the models are further east and a little more organised which limits maxes somewhat. With the being said 20c in May is still fairly meh, even at this point on the month its only 3c above average for London so it really shouldn't be that much of a struggle now with climatology on our side.

Same down here as well today. To be fair the last 7 days have been pretty decent, plenty of spells of sunshine. Of course weve had wet days but this is spring, it's to be expected. April outside perhaps the SE has been ok, about as average as you can get really. In the SE, I think its fair to say its been below par (slightly cooler than normal, duller than normal and much wetter than normal.). Regardless of anything else, this will be a wet spring, increasingly likely to be significantly wet spring (In the SE we probably are already there).

I think that powerful heatwave in 19 with the record breaking day did alot of the heavy lifting when it comes to 2019 being the right side of good. I do agree with you though on that statement

I think your right about expectations. If you don't have too high expectations the UK can be plenty fine. Indeed it's the meh expectation I have that makes even modest summers quite enjoyable, and makes those hot spells also more impressive than might otherwise be the case in otherwise already hot climates. Goi g back to this April, I think had we had a better March (even average) I think this April would have been alot more palatable. As it is there is such a desperation from some that even spells like this week (which Imo has been ok) is sewn as not good enough.

The SE in particular has had a bit of a stinker of a spring so far. Already in the top 25 wettest springs and its only going to climb even if things do eventually settle. For the country ad a whole broadly average overall, ewp 121% above normal so rain, so reasonably wet bit no wash out like March. Still we are heading well above normal for spring.

The main thing I'm watching now is the precipitation. It's already nailed on that this spring will be in the wet category (met gave that I think a 10% chance, which was bizarre imo given enso shift and ssw but there you go!) However how high we go is uncertain. It will almost certainly be a top 50 wettest. Even an average May gets us just into the top 10 wettest ever. Should we get a wet one, then something close to the top is a realistic chance.

Much cloudier now as fairly large cumulus form. Once the sun goes in its not quite so pleasant outside. With that being said its q perfectly serviceable late April day, nothing too impressive but good enough, especially versus what much of April has served so far here at least.

Perfectly good morning here, feeling reasonably warm in the shade already, though that maybe a consequence of having fairly monotone temperatures in recent weeks. A reminder to all as well the sun is now as strong as it is in mid August, so suncream is advised if you've got a complexion that burns. I don't, but my head of hair ain't what it used to be so it's hat season for me!

A perfectly acceptable spring day as long as convective infill isn't too strong clouding things over. Today is alright, the cloud has been a little stubborn but its at least still bright and fairly nice feeling.

Monday does look like a legitimately decent day temps wise. Also hoping that any new Scandi high that forms draws more of a ESE/SE flow than the previous one which will both temps and sunshine. I still think May will be the best spring month relative to the rest of the spring months, but that is admittedly a pretty low bar set by April!

I think an April 2012 could be easily defined as a disaster, hugely wetter than normal, 1c colder than the running mean, one of the duller Aprils in living memory as well, zero 20c recorded as well. That is a disaster of an April. This one is somewhat poor but is better on just about every metric than 12, considerably so on some metrics like rainfall totals.

I'm not trying to claim its been good, just that it's not quite the disaster some claim it to be. March, that was by any standards pretty disastrous. But April is probably going to end close to average temps, sunshine levels a bit below par but not drastic and rainfall a bit above but again not dreadful. The suppressed maxes have been dissapointing for sure though down here. Again though I'd say if this came after a good March and not one of the worst on record we'd not be seeing half the complaints. With all that being said, this is going to be a wet spring and that is an undeniable bust on the Met office behalf given their models looked drier than normal and thats what they went with (hence the drought concerns). Ps, if you hideous look at April 2012. That was a terrible month. This one is not even close to that level of bad.

I dont think it's been a terrible April statistically speaking, pretty close to average, perhaps a little worse than normal the further south you go. I just think the combo of monotonous temperatures with little variation, relatively low max monthly temp particularly again further south and a really dreadful March is probably making it look worse than it is, particularly when things still are struggling to improve and we are knocking on May's door. I suppose we've also had quite a downturn in April precipitation in the last 5-10 years which also probably makes a modestly wet month seem far worse than it is on the precipitation front.

Yeah, down south it was truly a poor summer, however for a large part of the country it was by most metrics a decent summer, perhaps not top tier but good for sure

Looking at the data so far its more of a NW-SE divide, the NW has been drier. With that being said the month to date is above average further SE versus just close to average further NW. Its only northern half of Scotland that is well below normal so far.