kold weather

Yesterday came in at a very respectable 17.9c. Today looks like it will come in at a very similar level, maybe even a hair higher given the mins were significantly higher than yesterday. Models appear to be firming up on another warmer spell developing in the next weekend, though still uncertainty as to what extent. With that be said, we probably don't need a heatwave to break June 1976 now, just a lack of any northerly component will do the trick from this point given how absurd the SSTs are currently around the UK and in the Atlantic. Of course should we get a heatwave, it may even bring the all time record into play if it can sustain.

Tuesday needs to really deliver some noticeable rain in this neck of the woods. My local weather station since May 15th has had just 0.6mm. Today will add maybe a couple of mm to that but here the ground is really starting to look similar to 2018. After Tuesday it just look likes limpet fronts moving against high pressure, in other words its not going to be much use down here.

Well we've got something that could be described as rain, but its pretty light and isn't going to amount to more than a couple of mm at best. So here we are down to Tuesday to deliver the goods. Should it not then we are going to have gone 40 days with easily less than 10mm, which given the heat at the moment isn't going to do a great deal of good for the grass and lakes it has to be said. With that being said I'm a little more hopeful that Tuesday will give a decent amount of rain for a short time. Cracking set of cells out there on the radar though it has to be said.

This is a fair point, the outlook for the SE in particular is pretty warm. I do think Tuesday could well go alot cooler than what it shows depending on the exact track of that developing low, but other than that I think this week will actually be quite warm the further SE you go. AROME looks a touch cooler for tomorrow mind you, but the UKV did a pretty sensational job with the temperatures over the last week and a half.

Should it form and curve northwards (noting the GFS has a bit of a north bias with its forecasts in developing storms and often goes further west, due to it being too rapid in development on average) I suspect it will pump up a ridge ahead of it and promote a strong southerly ahead of it. Some of the warmest runs recently has had a stronger system from this creating a classic heat pump solution. We currently have SST anomalies in the 2-5c range across much of the UK waters right now, even a pretty bland westerly flow is going to be much warmer than you'd typically expect. 1976 is increasingly likely to be beat at this point I suspect... As for the weekend, I'm not totally convinced we get a full bodied heatwave. Instead I expect a quick fire southerly into the SE section of the UK then a swift reintroduction of mean W/SW winds. hot for a couple of days possibly but nothing too outlandish. With that being said, it wouldn't take much of an ease up of the westerlies this weekend to make it become something far more significant.

I'd normally agree with this, but what is striking is the anomalies in the exact direction our air is coming from over the next week. I think it might surprise us compared to what we'd normally expect. Out of the 12z models so far over the next 4 days only the GFS fails to keep the pace to at least match 1976. We need a 14 day CET period around 17.5c, given how dry the ground has been, how warm the Atlantic is we may only need a synoptic pattern that would normally give a 15-16c CET over that time period to get over the line.

So I thought it would be interesting to run some basic analysis on the temperatures to see if we can tease out any biases from the models. Firstly I based it on the CET stations and then used the 12z runs of GFS, ICON, ARPEGE, CMC and the ECM 00z. Here are the daily mean results that we have for each day on the models: ARPEGE: 17.1 17.6 16.8 17.7 AVG - 17.3 GFS: 17.2 16.5 16.3 16.4 AVG- 16.6 ICON: 18.5 18.5 17.7 18.4 AVG- 18.2 GEM: 19.9 17.3 16.9 17.8 AVG 17.9 ECM: 18.3 17.7 18.0 17.7 AVG 17.9 Whats really interesting is GEM,ICON and ECM are all pretty close with temperature. The ARPEGE is lower but thats pretty much because of the rainy Tuesday it has which keeps things suppressed. GFS on the other hand is considerably lower on [retty much every day. At this stage its too early to say which will be closest, though the GFS was pretty poor at those stations on the 00z run (it did ok with mins but was off for the maxes, the 06z did a poor job in particular, the 00z was marginally better).

At this point in 1976 we were at 15.5, indeed by the 22nd it got down to 15.1c. Of course then we ended up getting a very impressive heatwave which shot the CET up. The point is, to match 1976 a slow but steady pace is all that will be required. It does also have to be remembered that a 18-20c CET mean in the final 10 days of the month is easier to get than a similar heat in the first 10 days, and given the heat in the atlantic and the dry ground I'd argue a set-up that gives 16-18c might even be enough now. With that being said its still far from a forgone conclusion, 2006 was at 16.1c at this time and actually ended up at 15.8c. I can see why mushy thought it was unlikely, but its easy to forget that temperature wise the first half of June 1976, whilst warm at times, really was no great shakes until the last 10 days of June set on fire.

I think as long as we keep something with even a hint of southerly in the wind component then I think the odds are better than not we break 1976. As has been noted the 06z GFS also was very much towards the bottom of the pack until the end of the end. There are still plenty of solutions though both cooler and warmer in there, though most are what I'd describe as changeable, with a classic NW-SE type split to some extent.

Unless we get an unexpected plume I don't really see a chance the record falls, but what we are going to see is a slow uplift as the mean looks to be somewhere between 17-19c on most days rolling forwards from here. Providing we avoid any meaningful N/NW type airflow that occasionally has been propping up on the models with the combo of the heat in the atlantic I suspect we may well beat out 1976, or at least match it. Its 100% going to be the warmest June since then at least, given the next nearest one is June 2018.

So a couple of points: 1: Temperatures will go above what you'd typically expect from a pattern, remember the atlantic is utterly roasting and our portion we are watching is generally at record warmth, and so I'd expect even fairly bland looking set-ups to deliver above average temperatures fairly comfortably. 2: Best steer clear of long range forecasts right now, the system in the tropical atlantic is extraordinarily early and I'd normally not consider such a system but the Main development region is literally warmer than most August's right now, so a cape verde system has to be taken at least somewhat seriously. 3: Typically in El Nino developing you'd slowly expect the subtropical jet stream to exert more and more influence in the pattern. I have on twitter and I think here referenced 1957 before as a possible match given how rapidly the ENSO developed that year. Great June but the rest not so much... With all that being said I think the general theme from the models of flattening things out is maybe the right one. It probably remains warmer than normal for most. It doesn't have the look 'disaster' written all over it , just a classic looking summer pattern, which is ok. Probably a textbook NW-SE split for the first time in a long time in summer with low pressure flirting closer to the NW probably bringing some needed frontal rain up there. The wildcard is 92L, any major development and recurve into the jet will throw a stronger ridge towards the UK with a more southerly component to the wind as per the GFS 06z. Remains the be seen. edit - @mushymanrob it has every chance of beating 1976, I've just calculated that the northern most station that is used averages 16.8c in the next 10 days using the latest GFS. We only need 17.0 and so that is well within striking distance given a real lack of cooler air coming into the CET zone on the models today. Your underestimating just how overhot the Atlantic is compared to normal right now...it won't take much to get much above normal temperatures... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98519-model-output-discussion-15th-march-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4871481

Looks like quite a wet 48hrs coming up down here but interestingly the models are drying up quite significantly again in the SE due to the Azores high close nature to this part of the country. Does look wetter further north and west but even then not hugely wetter than normal. The rain is more needed up there anyway. Down here the wetness of that Mar-early May period has put in a decent enough position even with a lengthy dry spell.

I have no issue with things going downhill somewhat, its been pretty close to perfect weather for me in the last 10 days, as it was during early June 2021. Luckily the models aren't looking anywhere near as rough as they did back then, just a bit more typical for the time of year.

So a couple of points: 1: Temperatures will go above what you'd typically expect from a pattern, remember the atlantic is utterly roasting and our portion we are watching is generally at record warmth, and so I'd expect even fairly bland looking set-ups to deliver above average temperatures fairly comfortably. 2: Best steer clear of long range forecasts right now, the system in the tropical atlantic is extraordinarily early and I'd normally not consider such a system but the Main development region is literally warmer than most August's right now, so a cape verde system has to be taken at least somewhat seriously. 3: Typically in El Nino developing you'd slowly expect the subtropical jet stream to exert more and more influence in the pattern. I have on twitter and I think here referenced 1957 before as a possible match given how rapidly the ENSO developed that year. Great June but the rest not so much... With all that being said I think the general theme from the models of flattening things out is maybe the right one. It probably remains warmer than normal for most. It doesn't have the look 'disaster' written all over it , just a classic looking summer pattern, which is ok. Probably a textbook NW-SE split for the first time in a long time in summer with low pressure flirting closer to the NW probably bringing some needed frontal rain up there. The wildcard is 92L, any major development and recurve into the jet will throw a stronger ridge towards the UK with a more southerly component to the wind as per the GFS 06z. Remains the be seen. edit - @mushymanrob it has every chance of beating 1976, I've just calculated that the northern most station that is used averages 16.8c in the next 10 days using the latest GFS. We only need 17.0 and so that is well within striking distance given a real lack of cooler air coming into the CET zone on the models today. Your underestimating just how overhot the Atlantic is compared to normal right now...it won't take much to get much above normal temperatures...

It was nothing short of a disaster here, I think locally I managed something like 12hrs of sunshine in the final two weeks of June (and even that might be generous tbh), and most of that was on one day. Even the day which was ok elsewhere in the SE we managed to get into a line of thunderstorms which just oscillated north and south throughout the whole afternoon spreading cloud out widely within this neck of the woods once they passed through. The first half of July was nearly as bad, though we did get a brief heat shot afterwards and the 2nd half of the month seemed ok from memory. But down here 2021 summer was a utter disaster. As @SunSean said the 2nd half of June was so vile it totally negated what was actually a pretty great first half of the month. I'd love to know where the 15th June to 15th July would rank in the versus other months, my guess is it'd be right up towards the very top for the SE.

Yeah the grass gas definately turned a very dry colour now, though hopefully the rain that is coming will bring it back to life somewhat.

It has berm very dry down here lately but we have actually had a pretty wet 9 month period overall. I suspect this is more to do with water companies being utterly useless than any desperate drought situation. At best, it maybe an early preventative measure in case things continue dry.

Down here we managed to miss a couple of those events, in one case the cell literally decayed about 10 miles away. We ended up going about 50 days without any rainfall at all. We also had something similar last year as well, that time it ended in a large storm which caused localised flash flooding. Here the grass went even more dead than it did in 2018, no doubt partly thanks to 2018 having a wet spring like this year was down here. That feature will probably save us from getting into the sorry state we saw last year.

Another season that this is reminding me is 2006, that also had a cooler and wetter spring but morphed into something very impressive through late May and into June. Also developing El Nino and SSW in early spring I believe. Anyways the 06z GFS decides to try and shove a cutoff low into the UK past day 10 which shunts a developing heatwave into Europe. There thankfully is very little support for that type of evolution throughout the models and indeed in GFS own ensembles. The reason is the GFS 06z op creates a much deeper low coming off Canada around 168hrs which forces a more westerly Azores high pump up and over the top of any cutoff low that might form. Instead most have a slightly more progressive pattern which flattens the high right over the UK. Most runs look very high pressure dominated, and the pattern may allow for a heatwave to develop around the 25th June. This is still a somewhat low risk outcome but I do think warm and HP are going to be the theme of things going forward once the wetter stuff works its way through this weekend.

Not quite as hot as yesterday here, and indeed across the entire country pretty much everywhere is 2-4c lower than the same time yesterday bar a couple of coastal locations around the country. Even so, its still a very good day and widely into the mid 20s. Indeed I'd say personally this temperature is preferable over the high 20s if you want to do anything out in it.

Very warm and sunny period it has to be said! Has gone quite some way to make up for a shocker of a first half of spring, though the ground around here is now starting to look in a sorry state so the rain on Sun-Mon is probably much welcomed on that front. I'd watch closely for 10-15 days time, I think any shift away from this pattern is going to be short lived and I suspect there is a very good chance of another high pressure coming in and anchoring over the UK for a time in that time period, could allow a hot spell should it get far enough east.

Impressive looking cell over Crawley direction, can easily see it from here. Whole lot should move NW from here. Looks like I've got rain coming in this evening unless that area decays away.

32.2c today is the current max, can't rule out a station that is checked later being a little higher again.

Whilst a hair over my comfortable range today in the afternoon, this evening is amazing and still pretty close to clear.

Well thats the date record gone then today. Very impressive max for so early in June it has to be said. I'd love to know the number of years that have maxes above 32c in the first 10 days of June, I can't imagine it'd be a hugely lengthy list?