kold weather

The big problem is we've either had weak lows nearby or been stuck in a mean easterly, neither in spring are good for cloud in this part of the world, esp when it's more north of east mean. Sadly we've had a combo of the SSW and a mega strong MJO event in March which basically seems to have locked in some form of northern blocking. With that being said it really would not take much of a synoptic shift for this mean E/Ene to shift to a much warmer and sunnier mean ESE/SE. I think given the mjo will often be phases 7, 8 and 0 due to the ENSO shift we may habe to accept some blocking to our north will be present, but exactly where it sits in relation to any LP to the south is absolutely key. It's just way too early to have any confidence. We may end up in another 21 scenario if the mean LP gets too close, though even then we'd be unlucky not to get some good heat with how extreme SSTs are out there in the NE Atlantic. Finally getting sunshine where I am, albeit still plenty of cloud as well.

To back up the cloudy part, so far most of England is running below average. The south is drastically below average for the time of year, somewhere between 50-65% of average. Definately going to need an uptick soon if we are going to avoid another dull month.

Thays a little bizarre outlook, the record books will say 20c if it hits 20c, regardless of whether its cloudy or not. I'm sure we've seen plenty of cloudy 20c days in May before or days with just a few hours of sun where the temps jump, maybe they all should be erased from the history books as they don't count now? That'd ve a nice way to bring the average down probably! With all that being said, I do understand your viewpoint, especially after an undeniable cloudy spring down here.

You indeed can never tell with cloud when it is going to burn off, I'd guess sometime around midday but that is just a guess. Tomorrow showers also highly uncertain, the Arome posted above along with the ecm are on the most progressive models, and maybe a little too fast based on the mean. It is interesting that nun er of 20c days in May don't really correlate at all to the summer. Snow Dreamer on twitter posted about 20c day in London in May and years like 03, 06 and 13 all had quite minimal 20c returns (between 3-6) whilst most Mays in the poorer 07-12 period had over 10 such days. In other words, what May does temperature wise really doesn't matter much in recent history and again is a strong reason why poor spring/cooler May doesn't mean bad summer.

This weekend doesn't look too bad of course we are at the mercy of low cloud breaking up this weekend but I think there are good odds on Saturday and should it happen I can forsee low 20c max temperature. Sunday a little more uncertain again due to a weak frontal system but it don't exactly look terrible away from the west (which should be best on Saturday

The models seem to be having having hard time down the line, howevwr Id be surprised if at some point soon a ridge doesn't push up more convincingly. My bigger uncertainty is where it lies, quite possible it ends up being too far north again and let's in LP through the backdoor into the south as the higher pressure zone pivots, then we are back to square one. However I really do think we need not get stuck in the mindset that just because it has been a poor Spring it doesn't mean that the same patter will just march the whole way through summer. It will break at some point, probably quite suddenly. Of course, it doesn't mean it has to break in a favourable way either... It's hard to say what your average should be as there isn't isn't good official station nearby. Similar stations further south in Suffolk close to the coast currently have an average in the 16s for maxes, so I'd argue that that range of temperatures is probably a little under par for what you'd expect (probably a range of 15-19c would be more typical allowing anomalies daily 2c either side of normal.)

The 9th will no doubt add at least 10mm to the total, though I suspect it maybe around 15mm which will kick us up the ranking list, and the next few days will continue to add to that list. Top 10 looks very likely now unless we do see quite a strong shift towards HP domination. It does look a little drier than of late, but at the moment still looks too unstable. The SE now upto 11th overall without adding in yesterdays thunderstorms, indeed add those in and we are probably No.8 or No.7 in the all time rankings list. At this point 60mm from the 8th onwards gets us the record wet spring down here, and I think its very possible at this point.

I was more talking about how dreadful June-July-August was for the south (particularly SE) versus what was seen in the NW in that summer 2021. I suspect that whilst March was pretty uniformly wet this spring as a whole won't end up being drastically wetter than normal. Down here we already are guaranteed a super wet spring, its just how high into the top 10 this spring reaches. 2018 was also a very wet spring, ranking at no.18 of all time for the EWP. Of course that all was forgotten when summer kicked into high gear. Hopefully we can see a similar switch and anyone who is writing it off due to a poor spring has to remember there have been various poor springs that ended up evolving into good, if not classic, summers. However we also have to say at the moment there is very little signs of it, though I don't think it'd need as much a shift as some think it might to look good... The 4th wettest on that list was 1947, which evolved into a very good summer. 1983 comes in at 6 and that had one of the hottest months ever. 1818 comes in at no.2 and was also a bit of a classic reading up on it, very dry and June/July were pretty warm versus the long term average...

Whats really been noteable is how monotonous the temperatures have been, there has been relatively little variation now for about 2 months in termperatures since the cold spell left in early March. We've seen a slight uptick in the last week in terms of maxes which is reflected in the means, but what feels like a warm up is in truth only a reversion towards the long term average. What really isn't standard is how wet its been this spring. In convective days its always hard to know exactly where the mean will come out, but based on the 48hrs returns added onto the rain upto the end of the 7th we are probably about No.25 in the all time ranking list in the EWP. Tentatively, I suspect the SE is now into the top 10 wettest springs ever. If not we 100% will be tomorrow, but I think based on the 48hr rainfall reports I find it highly probable we are there now. 60mm more will net the top spot for certain....its definitely possible if the month carries on the current trend of LP systems further south.

Its very similar to how summer 2021 went, though at least there is still a chance that the summer can redeem the sins of the spring down here. For the SE in particular we are well above average for rainfall this spring, indeed we are currently on track for the wettest spring recorded in 151 years down here, thats the sort of level of wet we are talking about. In absolute terms though it'd probably be just a standard spring for you guys in the lake district, heck maybe even a little below normal!

I like to think I'm quite level headed when it comes to these model runs but the 12z GFS for Monday is utterly dreadful, I'd say getting into the exceptionally poor category. Rain, stiff N/NE and max temps widely in the E/C parts of England just 6-7c. That no doubt on the extreme end but wow nonetheless...

Thunder here from the cell between Winchester and Alton. Instability is feeding nicely across from the west now.

Culdrose was at 9mm at 1pm, since then its been pretty consistently under heavy rain, so its going to be interesting to see where it ends up!

Its amazing out there how it gets to 4-5pm and the radar often just starts lighting up. Of course to be fair, we are playing under very different parameters here to even a fairly standard convective day out there! Its going to be interesting to watch some of the amateur weather stations if they end up near the core of the storms, could see some big figures on the rainfall front. I think the rainfall will be far the bigger story than the thunderstorms themselves,

Very early days still for this neck of the woods, at the moment seems to be enough capping to prevent anything too deep forming to our immediate west, probably a result of the cloud cover that is hanging around limiting temperatures a touch, meanwhile places further NW with less cloud cover are seeing the results. Eventually it should erode even here and allow some deeper convection to move across. The question for me down here is does it more end up remsebling 'thundery rain with a few embedded cells' or actual discrete active thunderstorms.

I think I'm going to be just a little too far west for the more discrete stuff this afternoon, though with this setup you can never rule out getting lucky as initiation has already began to my west, though still 8/8 cloud cover here I think I will probably have to make do with any thundery mass that might come up from the SW later into the early evening, so a nice drenching probably in time for rush hour starting no doubt! The main thrust of the warning is more for heavy rain from the looks of things, the models do have some fairly impressive spot totals and they aren't going to move too fast

Probably a tough ask for Heathrow unless convection trains into that area. For the SE as a whole we only need about another 60mm to get 1st place and you've got to imagine that number will drop by at least 15-20mm in the next 3 days (especially given far Eastern stations already have 4-6mm from last nights rain in the bank). Likely to be in the top 10 cone the end of Thursday, maybe comfortably so.

Currently I estimate at 15th out of 150, but today's rain almost certain to raise that number higher. Interestingly we are still *just* behind 2018 in the rankings, though today will likely overtake that spring locally. Wettest spring was 1979. We are still some way behind that but that gap will close in the next few days. Of course despite not being too obvious I the modelling yet there is always the chance of a sharp shift to drier conditions as well, we saw it happen a couple of times in the winter and no reason it can't again.

If it didn't rain anymore all month this May would come out roughly at number 30 in the all time wettest list. Of course we are going to see plenty of convection in the next 3 days so that total will increase, regionally in more southern areas perhaps significantly so.

I think for the SE a record wet spring is looking at least possible (May with similar rainfall as April will do it). Infact I'd say we are edging closer to odds on now. For the EWP it will take a very exceptional May to break the record. I'd say its again possible but much less likely than it is for the SE. A top 10 wettest spring seems pretty nailed on however.

I think the region as a whole is now placed something like 14th in the all time list without any rain from today. I'm thinking a top 10 in the ewp rankings (maybe even top 5) and top 3 for the SE.

Down in the SE I think we have a legitimate chance of getting to the very top of the rankings list. A May with similar level of rainfall to April gets us real close, and we are off to the pace required as well.

The only upshot I can see is the rainfall after tomorrow does look more convective in nature which should allow spells of sunshine in-between. I grant you thats not amazing, but at least its not write off territory. More notable is that without even adding yesterday rain we are now in the top 50 wettest springs and there is clearly considerable rain to come. Seems increasingly likely we will get a top 10 wettest spring ever recorded...and after ukmo only giving a wetter than average spring a 10% chance...

Current maxes are about 1c below average during spring so far across much of England, which backs up the idea of a spring with suppressed maxes for sure.

Just a quick reference, but average max in London at this time of year is 17-17.5c in the 91-20 series.