kold weather

I think down here it has been a fairly notable sunny spell, especially when contrasted to London that has had multiple days of 'only' getting 6-8hrs in comparison. With that being said, May 2020 was absurdly sunny. To put it into context the sunniest June in recent history averaged 270hrs in the SE (06), May 2020 ended up down here at 327.5. The only months in modern history that were even close are July 06 and 18, but they are still some 20-25hrs behind! Still, this spell may yet morph into a 2018 type spell which similarly started in May after a very wet spring. Something to watch for.

I'd imagine May 2020 would have been the most recent very sunny spell, with some utterly huge sunshine anomalies (it beats out even high ranking June's fairly comfortably despite slightly shorter days). As you say its felt warm without being oppressive at any point, though I get the feeling that is about to change over the weekend. EDIT - I'm not convinced there will be that much convection down here to be honest, maybe some stuff drifting up on Saturday night and maybe the odd bit here and there for the rest of the time but I think the main action will be just to our north.

I believe 2012, which recorded it in the very warm end of May spell. Its a pretty unusual thing to get in the first half of the month, more common in the 2nd half though.

I think alot depends on where you live, when I used to live in S.Essex the grass drying out was pretty much a yearly occurrence unless we had a pretty wet summer. So I do link dry grass with summer here, but I'd expect it to be considerably greener, especially earlier in the summer than down here.

Very true, we had no rain last summer for around 45 days here and that was preceded by a fairly dry spell. It did take some time for the local lakes/ponds to recover and I was a little surprised that they still weren't back to prior good health even after a fairly wet period between October-April, which obviously has set them up poorly for a dry summer spell.

Interestingly locally here the 15z UKV has actually upped the temperatures for tomorrow. I'm sceptical of the 27-28c it has mind you. As for Saturday, UKV now showing quite widespread 30-32c and 29-31c for Sun/Mon as maxes. So turning into a decent little hot spell, even if there are also considerable shower/storm risks at times

It was a really humid and tropical like summer, and the night time mins really reflected that as well. However yeah I'm not sure it was a classic. Grass here already looking somewhat yellow despite what was a very wet spring, a total lack of rain for 3 weeks has dried the top layers out pretty much entirely. Still a long way to go for things to look as bad as they got in August 22 when we lost all nearby ponds/lakes but obviously summer has only just begun and the occasional convective day isn't going to help a huge amount.

Thats actually close to a fairly classic hot summer look, maybe just need a little lower pressure to the SW but its pretty close...

A bit of a shift away from an outbreak on this afternoons higher resolution models it has to be said, they all look less impressive than they did on previous runs. Although most still havw some decent activity in the SW portion of the country and into Ireland

Also worth noting that with warmer SSTs than normal pretty much across the board now, we may not require the set-up to be as good as you'd normally be looking for in the first half of June. Its also worth saying that whilst 30c in June isn't that uncommon, it is more uncommon for it to happen in the first half of the month.

22c here, perfectly good weather and if we can hold onto these sorts of temperatures for a while I'd be more than happy. Does look a little warmer though I think the main thrust of heat will be a little north of here. Locally its been a pretty good, albeit average temperature wise, start to the summer. Certainly good sunshine levels so far here, must be getting in the 160-175% of average range for the time of the month.

Absolute beauty of a day out there, nice and warm but not so hot that things are getting a bit sweaty when doing things. Also clear blue skies throughout down here. Next few days looking decent, there probably are going to be showers around at times, though I think they won't be in such quantity that it will prevent temperatures getting pretty hot. Think 29-30c looking likely to be reached.

In all fairness nearly all of the high resolution models are also going for 29-30c maxes. Even the global models aren't far from that mark (GFS at 28c, ECM also at 28c) so I don't know why some are so doubtful that its possible? I suspect we may end up just below 30c, maybe a 28-29c max, with 25-27c more widely.

Sadly many of us forget there are very vulnerable people out there who will be at much higher risk than your letting on. That's whom this is aimed at. I know of several people through my connections of whom 30c is a potential killer due to their vulnerability, so remember people die at 30c, yet alone 35c and above when having a joke like that, it does kill.

Glagow not look too bad either thankfully!

Something I've noticed in a long period of model watching is the UKMO suite can often adjust further east than originally expected (we see that also in the tropical suite of the model interestingly as well!) of course we need to take each set-up on its own merit. I think alot will as per normal depend on just how much cloud cover comes up from the south and how much remnant muck comes along with any decaying systems from the south which might limit how much instablity can be tapped into. Still it does look like a fairly classic unstable sticky humid weekend. We had a few of those back in 2004 (from what I remember was a pretty thundery summer) and if we get any sunshine I think 26-28c looks probable.

Hard to know how long we've been dry, the nearest station Odiham suggests it rained just 2 days ago, but to be frank I don't recall seeing it and I'm up very early in the morning these days and there would be slight evidence of it given how cool the nights have been, so I'm guessing whatever was there, was not present locally. Either way, its been a very dry period, it probably ends this weekend for many but as other have said, not sure short lived showers/storms, no matter how energetic, are going to make a huge difference unless its a pattern that sustains for several weeks. It also does have to be said that there maybe less that makes it to the ground than the models expect given some of it looks like mid level based.

This must be a mighty tricky summer to forecast, we've got so many conflicting signals and an Atlantic/Pacific combo that is unlike anything we've seen in modern history (very rapidly developing El Nino, a very hot E.Atlantic, fairly presistant signal for blocking but exactly where, a negative PDO going totally counter to the El Nino, etc). 2009 might be the closest match however the El nino is clearly more developed at this stage vs 2009. I'm personally very keen on a front loaded summer, I thought maybe June would give a classic month, I'm now starting to think it may end up being a more straggler situation across months. It does also look more convective to me than recent years as well.

I personally don't mind cloud but day after day of low hanging cloud really can get a bit depressing. I've been actually lucky and often have seen that cloud bank to the north after it lifts out reasonably early (usually between 9-10am here). When i used to live in S.Essex I was well versed with the north sea clag though!

I think a slight issue is that a large chunk of that rain has come after winter, and spring rainfall doesn't have quite the same refilling qualities as the same amount would in winter time due to higher evaporation. Like @piglet there are already clear signs of distress in the grass down here. I understand though I've probably had 60hrs more sunshine in the last 2 weeks than places just 20-30 miles NE of here as I've often just been on the southern edge of the cloud boundary so the situation maybe better further north.

I've been very lucky here, I can literally see the cloud bank off to the north most mornings, but overhead here its nearly always sunny by 10am, and on some days considerably earlier. Odiham upto 147% of average so far and thats only going to improve today. However its clear to see significant chunks of the country have had an iffy start as well, particularly the east Even so we are still off to a fairly coolish start to the month in terms of the means, though more heavily weighed towards cooler mins. Looks like temperatures are going to finally land decently above average in the next few days which will help rapidly erode those cooler anomalies. EDIT - interesting to note despite the cloudy London notion, its actually been a fairly sunny start, 123% of normal at this point at Heathrow.

After a cloudier Start today it's again another quire decent day, though with something of a chill from the wind at times. This weekend looks very interesting, showery but airmass looks quite warm and humid so will feel warm between the showers/storms. I think I've been very lucky down here, just far enough SW on most days to avoid the thick cloud, its normally fairly thin so breaks up quite easily

I'm in two minds. GfS is often poor with dew points and often overstated them. However the ssts are blazing in the Atlantic and so above the typical dew points are more believable than usual.

Whilst water issues are definately true, it has actually been quite a dry period up north, only March has been wet up there, pretty much every month has been below average for rainfall up there, on the back of a fairly dry 2022. We certainly should be fine down here (although 18 came after a very wet spring and things got iffy for a time even then) but i think I is a legitimate concern further north. Interestingly locally first signs of the grass shifting away from the healthy green is been this spring.

For us, yes no doubts about it, 2018 is better without a doubt. But down in the SW, they are pretty similar in many ways, though May 2020 is miles better than both both here and in the SW.