kold weather

Starting to get some legitimately large rainfall totals down in the south coast, since 00z Friday we are now upto 70-100mm quite widely. Given how unsettled this week looks could well see a 7 day total for some parts over 200mm. For some parts that would be big but nothing exceptional, but for the south that would be starting to get into the exceptional bracket

Going to be interesting to see where the 15th Oct - 15th Nov would rank in comparison to other Octobers/November's. Particularly down here in the SE it feels like it's becoming a very wet period.

We are now reaching the point where even an average November rainfall will put this Autumn in the top 10 wettest. I've got a feeling this November may well have frequent bursts of cyclonic activity so we could end up towards the upper end of that top 10, though the very wettest seasons are in a league of their own (Autumn 2000 is literally another level).

Hastings had about 40mm from 00z-09z and there may well be a little more to add on to that this morning. Pretty probable we see a 48hr reading of 100mm somewhere this weekend, very wet by any standard.

Got to wonder whether we may see some bad flooding by Sunday evening by coastal areas given some parts are already at 35-55mm as of 6am with more coming down. Arome has some places getting towards 100mm by that point, seems like some places may ho higher than even that.

Looks like we may end up somewhat close to that top 15 list that Roger posted and top 10 is also definitely a possibility.

Looking like a very wet 4 day period coming up from today, will probably end up above average for the EWP by the end of this weekend and makes a very wet month possible given we look likely to remain in a unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future.

It's warranted based on this mornings output, especially given there are cities where impact maybe very bad. SE undoubtedly gets a yellow for Fri-Sat and will probably go Amber soon if model confidence continues to frow.

It wasn't an awful day here, but it did remind me of a late September type day, so I suppose for the time of year it was on the poor side! I've got a sneaky concern that if we can't shift this pattern soon the atlantic will wake up in terms of tropical acitvity early for the Cape Verde season and we will see a procession of storms funneling up the central Atlantic basically forcing the Azores high into a pretty locked in pattern of what we currently have, with weak ridges and constant ex tropical cyclones nearby. Still even if this summer does whiff out, we still had a pretty exceptional June.

Having done some analysis the best patch for sustained -ve Nao is somewhere in the 0.8-1.2c range. Any higher and it tends to run a high risk of whiffing out and rapidly slip positive again, though a modaki (CP) El Nino tends to be more forgiving. Of course the global background warmth might mean we have a little more leeway to be in the bullseye than normal.

Looks like the 12 month mean is about to drop away in the next 30-45 days, as this current troughy/Azores driven pattern looks quite entrenched. Even if it eases its hard to see anything in the ballpark of what the 2nd half of last summer provided!

The GFS is also stull throwing up borderline absurd lows for July (12z has another undergoing explosive cyclongensis) whilst no other model is doing anything near as rapid, indeed some don't have anything. Knowing the GFS it's either scored a great result against climatology and other models or its a showing itself up again. If the low is not as strong as planned the whole lot will be further l west and the GFS will rapidly look like the other hotter models.

Both gfs 0z and 06z show a LP undergoing explosive cyclongensis on Tuesday. Whenever I see this in June or July I start to question the likelihood of such a solution. Itshighly unusual for the time of year. What this means is the GFS is probably overdoing things and pegging the jet too strong to allow such a formation at a typically weaker time of year. For now the last two GFS runs are to be viewed with a large amount of salt as synoptically improbable.

I think we can thank the very warm SSTs for this. The waters in the Atlantic as a whole are basically a month ahead. So it probably shouldn't be all that surprising that temperature wise we've resembled a July. I think this month absolutely is a classic though, mean sunshine way above normal, temperatures way above normal, drier than normal. I'd say its been a little warmer though than you'd expect synoptically, but again the very warm waters around us go some way to explaining that. The other thing to remember is that June 1976 was warm, but only went really exceptional towards the final week.

I think we are going to have to have a hell of a sustained northerly blocking pattern to avoid an above average month, particularly on the older measures. SSTs are still on fire just about every cardinal direction we look in and so the base temperature is probably 1c above the 91-20 average in what you'd expect for the same pattern (probably moreso the further west you go, Ireland I'd imagine maybe more like 2c above base). Synoptically I'd guess 17C (modestly above average), but I think we may end up pretty close to 18c. I will go 17.8, but with a significant upside risk of something closer to 19c as well if the mean placement of the upper lows in the atlantic are a hair further SW. 80mm precip.

The ECM op being at the top doesn't surprise me. Thois is because it undergoes explosive cyclogenesis on Monday-Tuesday with that LP that heads over Ireland (1013-987mbs in less than 24hrs) which for a July low pressure is highly unlikely, doubly so with no other model support. This feature causes the focal fujiwara point of the broad complex of lows to shift further west as that LP decays and moves N/NW and the next low swings around to our west bringing up a warmer airflow. 'That is not to say there is something of a trend emerging for the LP to be more focused out west, just I think the ECM maybe a bit too far west on this run. At the very least there is a clear route to bring in some hotter air into at least the south, in a pattern that isn't that dissimilar to what we saw at times in the last few years. EDIT - agree with some others, how can anyone be writing off summer/calling it not good is beyond me. Even legendary summers do have down periods, and this period doesn't look *that* bad in truth, just average.

Ask and you shall recieve:

So looks like we are steadily heading towards the end of this fairly prolonged good spell of weather, most places have managed at least 3 weeks of fine and warm weather, some have managed considerably more. Of course there is no reason to think summer is now over, however it does have to be said the analogues for a warm June like this one aren't the greatest for Jul/Aug and I've personally been highlighting the risk of a 1957 on and off for a while now given the triple dip La Nina into fast El Nino we saw in 57. it kinda feels like the pattern is evolving in a similar way given the mean ensembles in early July. Even if it does end up being a really front loaded summer, this spell has been good enough that it will probably a 21 style stinker down here for the rest of the summer to bring it below par and even then we basically have a classic June in the bag I think. With all that said, its *not* summer over at all, and I don't think the spell coming up will be as rough as the models suggest right now, but a definite step back from the rest of June so far, yes, and probably just more average overall (luckily with a stronger jet we probably won't get limpet lows so fronts should clear through with pace hopefluly)

Ecm is indeed an outlier for pressure but most of them are going for a similar trend, albeit not as entrenched. With that being said I'm not sure how much rain will be around for the SE, decaying fronts from the BW tend to produce very little meaningful rain down here, so unless we get cyclongensis over the UK itself I suspect we will continue below average rainfall down here even if it cools off somewhat.

The LP that the 06z GFS develops in the atlantic on Mon-Tues deepens pretty rapidly for the time of year, its actually undergoes borderline rapid cyclogenesis. I can't imagine thats particularly common feat at this time of year. The models this morning really do look pretty average, nothing particularly of note of anything. The only thing that remains true is that with such extensive warm SSTs nearby any flow from the Atlantic will remain above what you'd expect, so whilst the synoptics themselves are pretty average, mean temperatures will remain elevated compared to normal. The mean is starting to resemble those rough looking El Nino summers from history, and also starting to get closer to the mean of good June's that were followed by rough summers afterwards. However long way to go yet on that front and a bland/average few weeks does not mean summer is over by a long stretch.

A shift towards an Azores high/Icelandic low pattern from the looks of the 00z suite so far Depending on exactly where it sets up could still be a very nice and somewhat warm pattern. If it's too far south will be a relatively cooler and more frontal WNW type flow. Also worth noting the 00z GFS op IS the most progressive in terms of lowering pressure of all its ensemble members. Probably suggests its moving the warmth through a little too fast.

Finally a good dosing of rain, about 10mm fell here. Hopefully the vegetation enjoys it, not sure it will do too much for the bodies of water that are already drying out mind you.

Surprisingly active area of rain, had maybe 5 loud rumbles in the last 20 minutes.

This week is looking superb for temperatures. Looks like down here we will be at that sweet spot through to maybe Saturday when we start to get slightly hotter air in.

Only need a 17c on the nose to beat June 76 Reef, so need something a little lower than 18c to manage it. (To match it need 17.55 roughly from yesterday, but with today's update that will a little lower again. Yesterday came in at 18.9c, so comfortably on pace. Today will be a little lower,my guess is high 17s. Tomorrow looks highly uncertain but will probably be the lowest CET day of the week. Even then I doubt we are below 17c due to source of airflow leading to fairly high mins. I think we can pretty much be confident of between 16.5-17.5c depending how the pattern evolves in the final week.