Steady Easterly

Aye theres nowt like blowing your own trumpet, but seriously, good call, hasnt happened yet but i never thought the cold block would be swept away as was shown on most previous output-dense cold air etc, very old school synoptics and surface conditions being shown.

Especially with all the pubs shut

Thats because hes a heed the ball.

Similar to ukmo upto 144, ecm a bit quicker with the atlantic low after, i wouldnt look past sunday in this situation, dense cold air notorious for hanging on.

It is indeed, sub-10 850 s, very strong flow, kinks galore, exciting times.

This will be one of those spells that will likely see huge differences in snow depth over just a few miles, get into a streamer and its jackpot time, been a while since we had such a set up, bring it on.

Yeah waste of time pointing out the truth bud, it will be gone in a key click.

This coming spell reminds me of February 79, we got totally pasted, similar set up , should be some epic falls i would think.

That thread should be retitled South East England model output discussion, its getting worse in that regard, post anything pointing that out and it will be removed, biased as hell.

I wouldnt worry about bbc weather, its awful and more often than not highly innacurate,stick to the met office forecasts and warnings, i think there will be flash warnings from sunday, there will be lying snow down to sea level from saturday night/sunday onwards, quite likely a lot of it too. Exciting times.

Hi, is that extrapolated from raw ukmo? or is it an independent model? thanks.

Some wonderful deep Winter charts this evening, the GEM run would produce Severe conditions that would be remembered for many a year, just once please let it be.

Sorry but that is wrong, ive been following this one closely and its always been around 19th-22nd for the colder air, or nice charts as you put it.

I think its obvious the models are struggling with various factors, ssw being the obvious one, cannot be taken seriously given the stark run to run differences, probably better off finding some old wallpaper to draw your own charts on.

Good Evening, some eye watering synoptics on offer lately, the best model watching in many a good year, so reminiscent of the classic winters of the late seventies/early eighties with repeated bouts of northern blocking with southerly tracking lows,dont worry about uppers as its early days after a long mild period, and ive already got a covering of snow out my window freezing hard under clear skies, the deep cold will come, i think we are eventually heading for a north easterly turning easterly--rinse repeat, exciting times, cherish them, they are rare. Merry Christmas.

The gfs 06z run reminds me of the classic synoptics of the seventies/early eighties winters, very plausible as well given the anomaly charts, i suspect some of the negativity of charts half a month away is the milder at times in the south parts, which was also often the case in those classic Winters with large snowfalls along the boundaries.

Im sure there will be at least an inch.

Whoosh yer cat, UKMO 144 best chart of the internet era, humdinger.

12z icon is a bitterly cold snowy scenario, we would struggle to get a better feed of cold unstable air, that it shows at this time of the year. Very 79 ish.

This severe spell beats 2010 for my area, deeper snow, severe drifting and remarkable low temperatures, temperature has not risen above -1.8 since monday night,a lot of fresh snow overnight, currently -2.9 in a biting strong steady Easterly.

The track of the azores low wont be known until weds at least i feel, small changes in track will obviously make a huge difference to what falls from above. A discrete surface high here or there could make a difference too.

The heaviest and deepest snow i have seen was in the feb-march 79 spell you mention, seen nothing like it since including 2010,most of that snow came at first from convection, sea temperatures that Winter were a good deal colder than now, increased solar heating at this time of year helps.

Its a direct hit on the latest runs, only seen one run where its not. all academic for now mind.

Models have an area of snow coming from Norway on monday night-tuesday, direct hit on our region, been there for several runs, could be a tricky start tuesday morning if it verifies.

Many parts in the East especially, but also other areas, would be cut off if this output is anywhere near correct, quite incredible charts. Model watching will never be quite the same again after all this.