Steady Easterly

Some strange comments in here this morning,some folk might think we are heading for mild sw winds, all looks good to me if its cold and snow you are after, anything after 120 is always subject to change and often much sooner, dont get too hung up on individual runs, it will drive you crackers.

I would urge caution, it hasnt happened yet, some stunning output though, we have a much higher chance of the elusive convective deep cold Easterly this time.

I believe its heights to our East/North East that the models struggle with, they usually do.

Those snow charts are as useful as a chocolate fireguard.

Because on this run its further North, the track through the UK wont be accurately modelled until Saturday at best, anything until then is guesswork really.

I think GFS is over intesifying the low, and historically these lows nearly always track a bit further South than shown on the last few runs, indeed its further South on this run compared to the 06z.

Certainly some interesting output as we head into late Autumn/early Winter. One eyebrow raised.

Indeed, and further upgrades to come, everything is edging West run by run, classic scandi high, fantastic to see.

Some rather exciting output this evening, GEM has some incredibly cold air for the South, ECM nearly as good further North, a combination of the two will do nicely, its getting closer to the reliable but not in the bag yet.

Some of the heaviest and deepest falls ive seen have occured in late Feb and March, 1979 comes to mind, and there are plenty of other examples. Some tasty solutions on offer in the morning charts, strange ECM run but it still gets the cold across the North sea, always the hardest hurdle to clear. Watching with high interest.

Its been an extremely dissapointing and highly frustrating Winter, all the signals seemed to suggest cold or deep cold, but it just hasnt worked out that way, to me it just goes to show that you just never know, the weather will do as it wants, and all the teleconnections and stratospheric suggestions dont mean zip, until you see that powdery drift building nicely on your doorstep. However it may still come yet, we are entering the part of winter that traditionally produces the goods, and ive seen worst patterns than we see now looking forward to the remainder of Winter.

Beautiful viewing tonights Easterly ECM , however i will start believing it at T-48, been burned too many times over the years.

UKMO is beautiful, at this time of year the flow couldnt be better, Europe would be colder too from any resultant Easterly.

Just observing the huge diferences run to run says it all really, big changes like that dont instill any confidence going forward from day 4 onwards, basically the models dont know.

Hello, i think nothing has really changed in the grand scheme etc and all that, we are looking at an increasingly cold outlook which is by its very nature a constantly evolving outlook, its a very complex situation which when you add on a scandanavian high and weakining vortex only adds to the complexity,there will be many more volatile and differing outputs to come im sure, but im also quite certain that few of them will be very mild.UKMET output recently has surprised me because it is usually doesnt do sensational, my best punt is early feb onwards for deep cold if its coming.

There are far too many wind up merchants in here whos only purpose is to create argument, this is the model output discussion thread, not the point scoring i was right thread,can you not just discuss the current output without personal jibes etc? get a grip its the weather, which will be long gone and forgotten for some other weather type very shortly, there is no need for many of the personal comments and frankly nasty posts,which quite often ruin this mostly excellent thread, you know who you are! and i repeat , get a grip and grow up because at the end of the day it really is not that important.

We are very close to a cold outbreak from the E-NE, as is usual for the UK we are on the boundry of two airmasses, history is littered with such synoptics at this time of year especially, and history is also littered with forecasts saying the atlantic will come rushing in only for the block to the E/NE to hold firm and strengthen because the block is nearly always underestimated,the pv is lifting out naturally now and so the north Atlantic is slowly running out of power, i would be surprised if we are not in our first significant cold period of weather by the months end.

Incredible model output for march,sub zero midday temps at the east coast, reminding me more and more of March 79, snowfall totals from showers merging in that flow would be large.

Yes it is- because pressure is risiing nicely to our north and seems set to link up with the russian high, quite sustainable looking to me, meto 144 would prolong the cold.

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

Morning, 06z gfs a marked improvement for cold, pv quite a bit further west of greenland troughing over europe closer to uk, i think an easterly is in the making, maybe not this run but i think thats where we are heading.

Moderate snow, 0.6 celsius.

Light snow, temp down to 0.8.

Are you sure its not the rentman.

I think some may be confusing soft hail/graupel with rain, which is what is falling here, temp falling now, 1.0 from a high of 1.9.