[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

A quick sortie outside, and I can confirm we have freezing rain. Rain that's colder than normal.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

Rain getting steadier now, can't wait fir the heavier stuff to arrive. :lol:

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

omg have you see that precip in the cold front? its just getting heavier and heavier over n ireland

Oh good lots of heavy rain then.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

It was jinxed as soon as the MetO upped the warnings for all the NW. Brollies at the ready.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

MET OFFICE UPDATED ALL OF NW ENGLAND FOR SNOW!

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

When it's snowing I'll believe it, until then, bah humbug. Still rain here in the Ribble Valley, twenty odd miles inland!.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4]

Very strange, bits and pieces of rain here, and the not the freezing kind. Temp around -1.9c, and we well over 20 miles from the coast.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

Miss Oxburry had the look of someone about to face the death penalty. Poor woman!

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

So then, what's happening?.....Oh I see you've just wasted one whole page of posts about a whether a slodge of orange has moved 3 pixels on the Meto's Microsoft Paint sponsored Weather Chart, which incidently, I have on good authority that it was edited by a Met Office foreign exchange student after a heavy pub lunchtime session........good grief folks!

And here's me thinking we would have to call in the auditors to go through the data with a fine tooth comb.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

I'm still not getting carried away, seen too many of these events go t**s up. Definitely a nowcasting event for me, I'll pop open the Champagne if and when we get plastered ( pardon the pun ) with snow.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

If the block puts up just a smidgen more resistance, that front will tilt more vertically and give everyone a better chance of seeing snow

This is our best chance, but as of yet none of the models bar the GEM seem to think this will happen.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

Sorry for being negative, but too me the profile seems all wrong to give an all snow event. I really do hope I'm proved wrong though.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

Interestingly the models still cannot pin point the front.

Matt Hugo just tweeted me back on Twitter. I asked him for his thoughts for Cheshire and he replied saying "yes, snow tomorrow"

GAME ON.

Turning to rain later!

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

I wouldn't be building any hopes of snow lying for long at lower elevations, once the front as cleared. I feel that this is going to turn out, as one giant damp squib for most of the UK. The more I look at the angle of attack, the more unfavourable it looks for more than an hour or so of snow.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

Does look increasingly likely it is a snow-rain event, but to be honest thats all it was ever really going to be for the NW. The more uncertainty with that lies further SE. If it makes you feel better the models do slightly seem to be trending to narrow the snow zone and give a snow-rain event for some central areas now as well.

There's nothing worse than a snow to rain event, it's akin to ordering your desert first, and then finishing off with a starter.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3]

Lets hope the short term models have got this wrong, otherwise we are in for a pointless snow to rain event. As for next week, fingers crossed and hopefully we won't be too far East, West. North, or South.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

Another downgrade, luckily it's the18z . If the 12z is showing an eastward shift, then time to worry.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

Have to wonder what SOME people prefer - for it to snow in their back yard or for the SE to miss out on snow. I think for a FEW sorry folk, it's the latter....

Again I agree, my post was supposed to be humorous, hopefully all of the UK will see significant snow.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

Can we keep the SE'hating away please

I agree, though maybe we could afford a wry smile if the SE did miss out. After all they do get far better Summers than us

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

I'm still not getting my hopes up just yet, even though last weekends event ended up a lot further West than originally forecasted, I can't help but feel that this one will end up further East.

[Spring 2012]

I think spring will start off on a cold and unsettled note, but will end up on a warm and sunny note. As for Summer, probably average at best.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

It does look like coastal western areas will see the snow turn to rain, and cold air gradually displaced. Further east though the cold air hanging on. This could be a very interesting period, and one of my great interests in weather, large geographical variability!

That's what makes living in the UK such a fascinating thing, for such a small island the differences can be huge. As for the weekends snow prospects for us, I dont think we'll do particularly well put of this. A snow to rain event for many, from about the West Pennines Westwards.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

Expect nothing to avoid disappointment

The front may stall further west which has happened in the past during similar synoptic set-ups. I'm expecting it weaken substantially as it moves over the UK.

I agree, I feel those in the SE will be disappointed, though today is looking good for quite a number of places down there. Maybe a NW collective "snow" mind meld will do the trick.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

After the upgrages of yesterday not much change overnight.

Looking like if you are West, at the moment there will be little if any snow. That is at the moment, things may change again today. At the moment I'd say Burnley Eastwards is looking good.

Watch the models again today though - there may be a surprise or two yet.

Oh no doubt there will be, but the 06z will have all of the UK under dark laden skies with copious amounts of rain.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

No significant shift west overnight but the GFS has shifted the snowline a fair few miles northwest.

18z was showing this

00z this

More upgrades to come I hope, but it might come down to nowcasting on the day. Maybe the high res models will shed more light on it later.

Personally I would take what any model is showing for us over the weekend, with a large pinch of salt. The best forecast would be too see what happens on the day, as my trust in any of the models is practically zero.

[North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2]

I shan't get too carried away just yet, for snow possibilities this coming weekend. None of the models have covered themselves with glory over the last few weeks, and yesterday I envisaged Saturdays warm front too stall out to the West of us, now I can't decide whether it will stall or clear the SE come Monday. Maybe come Friday we should have some clarity over just where the main action for snow will be. Until then no point in getting excited one minute, only to find oneself deflated the next.