UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Tin hats on and head for the bunkers.............Weather wars!!!
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Interesting post as usual GP, so at this moment in time you envisage a rather average early winter temp wise, with the prospects of a cold spell late on. Doesn't fill me with much optimism if you are right, in fact a rather boring early winter if it's extremes of weather your looking for.
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Hopefully an average October, a few days of warmth and a few nights of frost, with unsettled windy conditions in between. October heat is like April snow, pointless.
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I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.
I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??
Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit
I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.
I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??
Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit
Others post LRF with scientific reasoning and facts, but then see the weather do exactly the opposite too what they forecast. Shades of 76 spring to mind.
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High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.
For someone who was overly optimistic about a good summer on the back of Net Weathers LRF, and then chase every FI chart that promised heat, I find your views on winter rather amusing.High pressure will become the main feature this winter keeping it drier than normal, not saying storms won't arrive because they most likely will at times, also not saying we won't get substancial snow fall's from time to time but these will most likely only last a week max for most unlike 2010 when it was a month long freeze.
W
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I'd say this thread has run out of steam after 44 pages !!
I'd say this thread has run out of steam after 44 pages !!
Maybe it's time for a Beyond Winter thread!
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IMO a bad summer for those further North, and an average summer for those further South. Here in the Ribble Valley we didn't exceed 25c, a few dry/warm days here and there, but on the whole a phiss poor summer. Roll on winter.
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lordy!.... gfs 06z in fi would produce a very cool start to autumn!
Indeed, and after a relatively poor summer IMBY Autumnal conditions can't come quick enough.
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Which is all fine. But the ENSO and NAO forecasts are often wrong too...Not to mention the outputs from the various solar 'experts'.
Too true Pete, wasn't that long ago NASA was saying this solar cycle would be a strong one. But this what makes it all the more fascinating, no one can predict what will happen next. I would hazard a guess and say ENSO conditions would remain neutral/ weak nina throughout winter, but even if they was in a favorable state for another cold winter, there are still too many other variables which could scupper a cold winter.
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Yes it's been a disappointing Summer for widespread heat, around here in the Ribble Valley temps haven't exceeded 23c. This is now the fourth summer we have had, with temps not exceeding 25c. Looking at the MO, and it's fair to assume that Summer will quietly fizzle away into Autumn.looks like its been downgraded....again... the real heat/plume now expected into the near continent. saturady looks like the best for heat, with the northwestern half missing out. from sunday onwards back to changable weather as summer 2011 slips away...
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I think September will be a cool and often unsettled month, with temps slightly below the seasonal average.
October continues the cool unsettled theme, with night time frosts from around mid month. Again temps below the seasonal average.
November starts off dry and rather cold with widespread night time frosts, around the middle of the month more unsettled conditions with temps well below the seasonal average. The rest of the month continues on a cold and unsettled theme, though milder at times the further South you are.
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like an outlook with no cold on offer on feb 1st, the current outlook with no lengthy hot spell on any horizon makes this place rather quiet as i suspect people are now giving up on any lengthy hot spell. i blame john holmes for saying that until the longwave pattern changes, we will continue with the pattern we currently have! :lol: .. that by now must dash any hopes of a lengthy hot spell this summer.
so, we will have to 'endure' a pretty normal, typical, summer, one of variety and change, never too hot/cold sunny/dull wet/dry for long... whilst i might be abit disappointed that theres practically no chance now of a lengthy hot spell (5 days + for the bulk of the uk), im happy enough with what we have had and hopefully what we will get.
still a possible thundery breakdown mid week after some muggy humid warm days.. lets hope!
This week has been lovely in this part of Lancashire, we have already had 5 days of blue skies and temps in the lower 20s. Unfortunately by the look of things this will be the last of those for quite some time, still it's not as dire as 2007, at least it's been an average summer for most except Scotland.
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I'd take PWS's updates with a pinch of salt, how they can predict that far ahead? it's near impossible, there just a bunch of amateurs looking for media attention, do Netweather release winter forecasts like they do for summer?
Yes they are not the most reliable even at shorter timescales, having said that I do feel we will have a fourth colder than average winter due to favorable conditions, ie continuing low solar output, southerly tracking jet, favorable PDO and NAO conditions. Will I be rushing out to put my money were my mouth is, no chance!
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Some evidence of an impending ice age, as such.
Ice age threat should freeze EPA global warming regs The Examiner Op Eds Washington Examiner.htm
More of a political rant really.
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So, we are still at the stage where there is absolutely zero evidence around, suggesting that an Ice Age is imminent? Very strange, IMO, given that so many folks feel able to categorically state that the Earth is currently cooling...when it isn't! At least, not unless those who 'know' it is [cooling] have reset their clocks again - from 1998 to 2010? :unsure:
It's not cooling, but then again it's not warming. Temps have flatlined over the last few years, were they go from here is anyone's guess, but if solar predictions are right then we should see evidence for cooling within the next few years, albeit a small decrease.
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Looks like after this week, summer settles back into what as become the default pattern all summer, Will August turn out worse than June/July, I wouldn't bet against it..
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Too be honest I was expecting as much, the next 5-7 days look dry/ warmish for most, thereafter heights over Greenland re-establish their vice like grip and we seem to be back to square one. It's been a poor summer IMO, it's been a case of so near yet so far, similar to winters prior 08/09.Very poor ECM tonight
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In the style of an infamous 'forecaster' (naming no names)
I'd like to declare the summer forecast 2011 (shades of 1976) a success as it is very hot and very dry in the USA currently, which means that although the location was a little out (what's a couple of thousand miles?), the forecast itself was spot on.
I'm now off to the pub to celebrate - have a good weekend.
PS - For anyone who may think I'm being serious, I'm kidding!!
A much better reason would be how recent earthquake activity had temporally tilted the earth of it's normal axis, and thus resulting in a 1976 type summer in the US. A scientific explanation and one which might just pull the wool over our eyes.
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I would heed caution, although the GFS is showing a warm/sunny spell you cannot ignore the Euro's I would expect the GFS to follow the Euro's by the end of today. Off course it may be the other way, and we get 3-5 days of hot sunny weather.This time next week looks very warm and sunny for England wales - hot in places. Hope the GFS is right!
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Grrrrr it wasnt me that started the here and now on positions of jetstreams and gulfstreams....what I am trying to say is the pressure patterns are different to last summer, if my mind serves me correct last summer we had a blocking high pressure right in the middle of the north atlantic and it sent the pressure systems into Greenland. This summer is different, we do have areas of low pressure slamming into us, because that area of blocking high pressure is right where it should be, over the azores.
At this point in time you are looking for general trends and Im giving them. I just do not think the conditions are right for a repeat performance of either 2009 or 2010 winters and I think snow lovers including myself are going to be disappointed. For me there isnt enough similarities in meteorlogical, atmospheric and solar set ups to warrant another cold winter. We will still have snow, but it will be coming from the N and not the east, and certainly not the continent.
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1. The La Nina conditions have weakened, and I suspect ENSO will stay neutral for the first part of winter then turn positive later part... reasoning and evidence: The ENSO CFS model cant make up its mind.
2. The Blocking area of high pressure which has brought our rubbish summer which so many of us have moaned about looks set to stay stubbornly over the azores allowing the atlantic to rattle in..... hence we get storms. Last summer and Autumn that area of high pressure was much further north.
3. SST's have made a recovery from last winter: Evdience... for the first time in 30 years I was able to swim in the sea! Last year the sea was very very cold all summer.
4.The solar minimum has passed, sunspot activity has increased and will continue to increase.
5. Unless the volcano in Iceland erupts big style in the next few weeks/ months I cant imagine global dimming to be an issue this winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
I have never been one for all this long winded, overtechnical speel, that few can understand and for myself have little time to write about. Up here in the North we are probably a little bit more intutitive with the weather, we have to be as it can have a massive impact on us. And I keep telling you it isnt the cold we should be talking about, its the potential for quite severe windstorms, last autumns were babies compared to the monsters thatmay reach our shores this autumn and winter.
1. La Nina conditions are expected to remain neutral the first half of winter, then dip bringing weak Nina conditions.
2. The blocking conditions which have brought us our rubbish summer, is down to strong heights over Greenland, not the Azores. This is why we have only been able to see brief ridges from the Azores.
3. SST's always make a recovery from winter
4. Solar minimum remains extremely low, compare this cycle with the previous one.
5. Volacanic activity in Iceland last year had no impact on our winter, so why would that effect this winter?
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Temps have plateaued though, so that's a start I guess. The proof in the pudding will be over the next few years, all the jigsaw pieces are in place, so now we will see if AGW really does effect temps.the climate hasnt cooled though
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I disagree about the jetstream wanting to stay south, any other year and I would agree, there are strong inidications that the atlantic has woken from its slumber and that the current meteorlogical conditions are supporting a strong jet directly over us here in the UK. We are witnessing blocking conditions in the atlantic, unfortunately its over the azores which isnt good news for cold lovers.
The ENSO graph is showing huge disparities in its runs and it is really difficult to rely on, what we do know is that it was very negative all last summer and into autumn and that will not be the casethis year unless something short of a weather miracle happens. The CFS doesnt have a great record at predicting longer range ENSO conditions, take last year when it said it would go strongly el nino and it didnt. Volcanic activity will only imapct for 1 yr to 18 months it is very short term, due to the atmospheric chemistry involved.
Solar activity is increasing, even given the lag time which was start of last winter, its effect on the atmosphere will now only encourage warmth.
Winter will be mild wet and very windy. Worst of the any snow will be for the north. I will be surprised to see a beast from the east.
Firstly any predictions of solar activity ramping up are way of the mark, yes it's more active, but compared to the last cycle it's in a coma. Also how sunspots are now counted, as to how they was counted in the LIA is vastly different.
Secondly ENSO is predicted to be neutral/ weak la nina. add to that more favorable QBO conditions and the odds on another cold winter are 65% I would say. So my conclusion after looking at all these variables, is for a Mild wet Bartlett winter!
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July is now the new October, with Summer starting in March and ending in May.Where do you begin with whining about this weather?
As if October/November aren't grim & long enough without them spreading into July!
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Looks like we will enjoy at least 3 days of fine warm weather next week before summer puts the sold sign up, thereafter things looking Autumnal. Ok a bit OTT, but certainly no signs of a prolonged warm/dry spell, and if anything August could turn out more unsettled than June/July.
Britain Faces A Mini Ice Age
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'm sorry but you take a computer simulated model which have been found wanting with regards to forecasting global temps, but then want 100% proof that there lye's a correlation between reduced solar output and cooling temps. Where is the 100% proof that climate models are right?