UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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Without being pedantic, people were saying the very same mid June, I don't see any change in the current pattern we are stuck in, more of the same for all. Maybe October will bring us our next lengthy dry/warm spell.Hardly, you can't write off August, or even the rest of July considering it's only July 16th.
Still got all of August, and September for heat. There are signs that we may be seeing a slow improvement as we head into August. So I will wait until mid August to call it yet.
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What a depressing thought, and sadly one that is looking the favorite at this moment in time.i dont see anything to get excited about if its sunshine and warmth youre after.... pressure might be set to rise in the west later in the week, but all models including the anomoly charts keep this low to our east, drawing in initially cool northerlies. as things stand the higher pressure never gets here and currently isnt expected too.
i think we are seeing a major pattern shift. since early may we have been dominated by the trough/ridge/trough/ridge pattern. if the anomoly charts are proven correct then we are in for a period (of 'x' amount of time) whereby northwestern europe is dominated by this large area of low pressure, locked into place by the azh and the siberian high with a connecting ridge to our north. IF this becomes reality, and its rather probable that it will, this will possibly see out the rest of summer, which in essence is only 6 weeks.
its possible for something warmer to evolve IF this trough sinks more southerly, or/and easterly, we might get a warm easterly then as continental hot air is advected in the lows circulation.
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I did the with the decline of Nina conditions, and my hunch was for a continuation of what the last four summers have thrown at us. The trouble with a LRF though, is that there are far too many variables which tend to throw a spanner in the works.We already had more than last July's sunshine in half of this July!
Last July was slightly above average here, thanks to higher minimum temperatures.
2007+2008+2009 were below average, in my records. Last time we had one notably above average was 2006.
I would much rather have a July or August 4 degrees warmer than average than APRIL, which, when warm, is usually followed by a poor summer.
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Off topic a little, but if true that would fall into line with Roger J's thoughts for later this month.judging by the last two naefs runs, we may be seeing a decent spell around the last week of the month. influenced by the sceuro ridge building nw, that means the further se, the better/more reliable this may turn out to be. the mean jet is certainly a lot lot weaker beyond T200.
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Looking grim from the weekend onwards, I very much doubt that low will be that deep, but an unsettled and cool/average outlook remains the form horse.
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So a continuation of what we've been use to so far this summer. Oh dear I think mushy might feel a little depressed now you've told him that.Rob, the 500hPa anomaly charts that have been constructed helpfully by Alan Huffman do not have any timelapse involved at all. What he did was to look at each phase of the MJO that occurred in each month and then constructed the anomaly charts using those correlated dates. So in fact what we see are the anomaly charts for that particular phase derived from a number of dates.
The MJO forecast that you have shown a strong likelihood that The MJO will stay in phase 1 for some time. The phase 2 forecast is less certain (MJO FI if you like). The Phase 2 anomaly chart to me suggests no overall pressure pattern likely. It looks somewhat of an in between phase, with phase 1 having a trough dominating the UK and phase 3 a ridge. I would exercise caution until we see the MJO head towards phase 3. On top of this we need to remember that the MJO is a tropical determinant of longwave patterns and we need to take into consideration the extratropical factors (such as mountain torques) that will also have a bearing on the longwave pattern.
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It's a worry Gavin, that's for sure. I'm stockpiling wood from the spinney behind us already. I'll be using the woodburner a LOT more this winter !!!
It won't matter how cold it gets, or how much fuel you use to keep warm. Do you think for one minute those kind caring energy companies, would cut your fuel supply off for non compliance of payments.
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Except that, where the jet stream is today probably has very little (if anything at all) to do with where it will be in SIX MONTHS' time...
Off course Pete, but if you look at the last three to four years the jet stream has been slowly moving towards the equator, certainly in NW Europe, a little harder to correlate elsewhere.
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Yes I agree with that, unless there is a major shift in synoptic's, as in the jet stream moving polewards again,and blocking over greenland dispersing, then the odds for another cold winter I would say are about 60-70%.The thing is, even thought we have had 3 cold winters, I can see a lot more potential of a cold one than a mild one.
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I think as with so many things, it's all about extent. I think it's inevitable that people, in looking at the model outputs, are going to be biased towards their own regions to a certain extent, and I'm no exception. But I don't think it's reasonable to go to the extreme, deliberately focusing solely on one's own region and ignoring everywhere else (e.g. the old "there will be heat/snow/storms in the southeast so therefore this run is an 'upgrade' for the whole UK" type nonsense).
So really we have one request for both sides for sake of balance- don't post into MOD with an attitude of "my part of the UK is all that matters", but also don't "jump" when people, in attempting to give general comments, let a bit of regional bias creep in.
That was what I was referring too TWS, we all have an inbuilt bias towards our locality, but we are here to discuss the models for the UK. I'ts not rocket science, but some seem intent on doing as they please.
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SE fry? Far from it, ok it has probably been better than some areas but my station in Essex just recorded the wettest and coolest June for a while even 07 was drier and warmer! Tbh it's summed up best by changeable with a few days of warmth and sun and then a few days of cool and showery or wet.
The models indicate that nicely again with mon-fri showing drier before another low rolls in. Wouldn't be surprised if rainfall and sun both end up above avg again!
The southeast will always likely end up better in summer months because of it's shelter from the Atlantic and it's more favourable southerly position towards the equator!
Sorry Alex, my comment was directed at one or two on here who can't grasp the idea of this being a model thread for the UK. Most on here give good summaries no matter where they come from, we all have a little IMBYism but we are here to discuss the UK, as well as our own locations.
Sorry for being off topic Mods.
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Another run and much the same, some rain/showers in between a couple of days dry/warm weather. That nice big Greenland high looks like it will remain with us throughout the summer, each time FI shows it too weaken on one run, the very next day shows it strengthening it's vice like grip. So too sum up, the SE continues to fry, whilst the rest of us unimportant ones see an average summer.
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You really ought to read my posts and check your facts before making yourself look silly by calling me out on something. I said the SE quarter of the UK. London has 8 million, SE 8 million, East Anglia 5.5 million. Add in bits of other regions that also fall into that SE quadrant and you reach 30 million easily, surpassing it probably. It's a statistic you and others would do well to remember when calling "poor and unsettled" on the models when the reality is a decent average summer for the populous SE quadrant.
Whatever! This is a UK model thread not an IMBY thread, your post are growing tiresome as they are predictable. Here's an idea try and post something about the whole of the UK.
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Good post by Lorenzo above - I have often wondered why it is considered heresy to talk of the benign weather prospects in the SE, yet doom wrist slitting and talk of monsoon rains in the NW is apparently fair game. As 30m people, about half of the entire UK live in the SE quarter of the island, you'd think that talking about the SE would be welcomed!
Well it is only 7 July so there IS two months of summer left, save seven days. This is if you slavishly adhere to the Met Office summer- many of us still consider early and mid September as summer (warmer than May) and are traditionalists who say the first day of Autumn is September 21. Outlook looking benign and pleasant in the most populous regions of the UK, as the reasonable SE summer rolls on.
Mathematics and Geography are not two of your strong points I see.
Back to the models and not much as changed, big block over Greenland preventing any sustained heat building over the UK. A few nice warm sunny days for some, followed by spells of rain/showers. for all. Basically I would say that's the pattern set for the next two weeks, will August deliver anything different?
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Good post Gavin, your spot on things could be a lot worse. At least we will have a few days of nice warm weather, and to be honest I think that's the best we can hope for looking at what the models are showing.ECM is looking fine for next week,
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif
Temps from high teen's to low 20's, should feel quite pleasant in clear spells.
There's not much else to say really, it could be better, but it could be a lot worse, with high pressure looking likely to take hold things should settle down, high pressure may start to lose its grip by next Friday but that's a long way off.
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right... heres my first shot at trying to interpret what these charts are saying. both the ecm and gfs @ +168-+240 suggest a strong mid atlantic ridge with the azh linking with the greenland high. both models suggest a trough for most of the time either close to our northwest (gfs) or slacker area of low pressure over us (ecm). that would suggest (if im right) that conditions are likely to be similar to those were will be experiencing over the next three days here. so its suggesting that the 'end of weekend/early next weeks' ridge will not be a lasting feature and the next atlantic trough will repeat this weeks events, next week.
so no sign of anything settled and hot.
please correct me if im wrong!
Pretty good assessment mushy, much in line with your own thoughts really.
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They aren't very good with statistics, there baseline starts with +1c for AGW, hence why their LRF skills are pretty inept. Like you say the last 3 have been below average, so that kind of blows that theory out of the water.1 in 7? How does that explain the last 3? Not saying there's an ice age coming because I don't believe that but the winters have gotten worse and something has changed with the patterns. Either way where do they pluck the 1 in 7 from? Does that mean that 6 in 7 winters will be relatively mild?
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I think he failed to see the irony in his post.but you are quoting from an imby perspective. a glance at the radar would show that your walk to work could have been a very soggy (and therefore cool) affair just 20 miles from where you are. today, tomorrow and friday are far from what we would hope to see from a summers day for most of the uk. however, as is always the case with showers, there will be some winners.
Too me it looks a case of more of the same for the rest of this month, still no signs of a lengthy dry/hot spell. Will soon be Autumn too!
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There has been no global temperature increase since 1998.
And this is their excuse;
They blame China’s increasing coal consumption that they say is adding particles into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight and therefore cool the planet. The effect of aerosols and their interplay with other agents of combustion is a major uncertainty in climate models. Moreover, despite China’s coal burning, data indicate that in the past decade the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere has not increased.
Now that's quite comical if they wasn't being serious.
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It tends to remind me of winters past, always something on the horizon but never in the reliable timeframe. The clock is ticking, and the outlook in the reliable remains much of what we have already seen. Summer over, no, but the prospects of a hot dry spell?... yeah but the second half of may was supposed to 'deliver', then it was the second half of june... then early july... now second half of july... and still theres nothing other then tentetive signs in the teleconnections (but my rudimentary knowlege may well be wrong here, please correct me if im wrong!) that anything much different will occur. the mjo is predicted to move into phase 2, but thats still a prediction, not a 'given' for ten days ahead. i expect 'august will deliver' posts soon... and 'september can be nice'...
to me i wouldnt be surprised if the current pattern which has been in place since early may prevails... showery low - ridge - showery low - ridge (ok theres heavier rain and higher temps within this cycle, and locality plays a role, but generally this has been the pattern).
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Im afraid the summer forecast is a pretty huge bust.
Nothing else to add really.
Can't argue with that, whatever happens now.
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i havnt seen 1 post thats 'written off summer'... just portions of it which corresponds to what is being forecasted .
ok, so now i can see the mjo graphic that predicts its possible track. trouble is, im non the wiser! :lol: because i dont know which phase is good for which weather! which phase would likely result in a heatwave?..
It's ok mushy, as sometimes the weather itself doesn't always follow the MJO. Remember it's just another teleconnection tool, it's not foolproof.
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The fat lady is now getting ready, two more weeks and if we haven't seen a pattern change it's Adios summertime, I'll get my coat.
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i dont think the gfs is backing the ecm... true its shifted away from such a high pressure dominated run, but it still insists that there will be a huge northern block whilst the ecm doesnt have such pressure rises over scandinavia/siberia.. as i see it, the ecm is the worst run, with the ukmo and gfs in more agreement.
whilst there may be no +ve signals from the teleconnections atm, there might well be in a few days time,... (please correct me if im wrong), wheres the mjo heading ?
Too bed with a temperature if it see's the latest out put!
No signs of anything remotely resembling summery weather of any of the outputs this morning, that Greenland high seems to be gaining momentum as we head through summer.
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
No one can say for sure Luke, the odds aren't stacked in favor of a lengthy dry/warm spell, but these can change quickly. It's not been a total write off this summer, more average for those in the South and SE, but below average the further North. Fingers crossed we get at least one spell of warm/hot weather for 5+ days this summer.