UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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There is absolutely no chance of those charts coming off IMO. After the 23rd cool/cold zonality will be in place, probably right through until the New Year.After a mild mid week things cool down by the 23rd and this continues through christmas
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2162.png
The south-west has a chance of been mild but every where else should see temps from 2c to 6
After christmas high pressure is shown to build again
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png
This continues right through FI however is does turn cooler.
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Your going off those same teleconnections that said we would have a flat pattern and mostly zonal TM. I expect more of the same after a brief mild blip.We might get some more wintry showers over the weekend but certainly no significant accumulations and then thats it come monday i think until well into jan possibly nothing untill the last third of Jan.
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I'm keeping an eye on that feature myself, looks like we could well be in for a few more surprises before the days out.A surface low is trying to form looking at the 850hpa vectors, but there's just not enough pressurential difference to call it so, thus the MetO have stuck to it being a trough as of now. However it is influential on whats going on with our streamer right now and given the vector speeds should be across northern parts in the next 2 hours (which by then temps will start to be dropping off regardless of cloud cover aswell.)
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No sooner do I post about the main band missing us, then as sure as eggs are eggs it starts snowing again!
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Nothing here at the moment, the main band of precipitation appears to be to the West of us and moving SE. Looks like we will miss out on the action this afternoon.
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It still appears the models are all over the place at this moment in time, is this because of some unknown factor not currently being picked up by any of the models? IMO I believe this is the problem, we have southerly tracking jet with a strong PV, normally these do't go hand in hand. The unknown factor is overriding all teleconnections it appears.
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Very heavy snow now, if this keeps up we'll end up with more snow than the previous three winters. Who needs favourable teleconnections for cold and snow eh!
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Moderate snow that lasted for ten minutes, leaving a light dusting. I'm happy as I wasn't expecting anything.
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It becomes very tedious reading comments like this. When Xmas is upon us then by all means make comments like the above.As some members called it correctly Mild theme into Xmas day and child Bartlett beyond into Jan 2012
IMO a lot remains undecided with the positioning of the High.
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The overall trend is one of temps remaining static, but we are going way off topic now.Surely far too early to say whether the colder trend of the last 2 or 3 winters is anything more than a blip in a long-term pattern of warming? (although I certainly hope not)
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Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.Why ? It was the most significant shift in weather patterns since the mini-Ice Age and it happened in our lifetimes.
How's the book coming along by the way?
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Exciting model watching for all I'd say. I've never seen such a turnaround from the UKMO in such a short time. Too me it looks like Fridays low will zip along the channel, maybe even into France. One thing that is noticeable over the last few winters, is how these LP systems end up further South than originally forecasted. Could be a few more surprises in store in the run up to Christmas.
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You can tell when it's winter, with Backtracks pendulum mood swings!It's a feeling I have.
I'm entitled to my own opinion.
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Maybe you could get your Uncle, best friend, lover, cleaner, to alert the press eh! :winky:The guy is an absolute fraud. How he is getting paid to write the utter tosh in our countries papers I have no idea! What he is doing with his website is plain wrong. He has an A level in geography. That is it.....LOL Surely there is something we can do to let our press know about what he is doing?
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Some real nonsense spoken by one or two on here, it appears as soon as a mild outlook is shown some jump on that as being gospel.
Back on topic anyhow's, in the reliable timeframe zonal remains king with temps remaining between above average at times to below average at times. I do also think we'll see a period of milder zonality prior to xmas, will this be a precursor to much colder weather thereafter, who knows but for those who think otherwise we shall see!
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Quite agree Ian, full credit to him for sticking to his guns, Whether he's right or wrong, the level of abuse by those who like to slate all LRF but never publish their own, is downright rude.If we must have these threads, can we limit the discussion to the forecast, it's merits and issues and not stray into becoming insulting or personal please. I think is will become the standard disclaimer every third post in these threads.
One thing for James, he doesn't charge for the full forecast, and it's out there for all to see, regardless of outcome and he deserves credit for that at the very least.
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None of the above, but I'm leaning towards Gavin P 1955/56, All the background signals are very similar to that winter.
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Gibby's summary is spot on as always going by tonights output. However this is an ever evolving pattern which the models are struggling with, expect more twist and turns before next Monday.
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Not at all the subject fascinates me, though for novices like myself I sometimes find the evidence relating to cold and stratospheric warming events conflicting.Perhaps.
It seems to me that there is a small minority determined to disparage the stratospheric / tropospheric relationship rather than try to learn and understand more about it.
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Chicken, egg, always springs too my mind.Without having access to stratospheric vortex analysis charts for the preceding period it is very difficult to comment. However, the stratosphere at the start of December in 1987 at 30hPa was almost 10ºC warmer than it is presently. Wave number 1 activity was enhanced during the lead up to the cold spell and in fact it was the increased amplitude and repeated peaking of this wave that both led to the cold spell and subsequent SSW.
When looking at a SSW we need to analyse the period before and after the SSW due to the tropospheric/ stratospheric interactions that take place. It is a little bit disingenious to suggest that it is not linked - it is all linked together - but very complex.
So if we get a severe cold spell prior to a SSW it does not mean that there is no linkage, the warmer preceding December stratospheric spell, the increased wave number 1 activity, the drop in mean zonal winds, the evolution of the Scandinavian high all suggest that this is so.
One thing that is most certain is that the likelihood of blocking from the present almost record cold stratosphere is extremely unlikely and if it does occur it is highly likely that this will be because a SSW is not far away and preconditioning is occurring.
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Indeed there wasn't, I personally feel that far too much weight is given to stratospheric warming events. As 87 shows we can get very cold spells without such warming.C
So was there no SSW to precede or influence the great Jan 1987 event?
BFTP
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And yet Northern parts may see lowland snow,and a 3-5 day cold snap. Just goes to show stratospheric warming isn't always needed for cold and snow. Off course it's only a cold snap as in spell, but again a warm stratosphere doesn't always guarantee cold and vice versa.I apologise gltw - but sometimes it is hard to bite ones tongue!!
The strat is still cooling - no significant change there.
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Why? Do we not need high pressure to be in place for any warming to take place?That just isn't true.
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Personally I still don't think that Stratospheric warming is the be all and end all for cold, yes it does help heights to rise over the pole, but then again you need heights over the pole for any Stratospheric warming to take place.
Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted