UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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What as been noticeable in the NH is a buckling of the Jet system, which has allowed High pressure cells to extend their influence around the arctic basin. If we look back over four years ago then we can see how in the NH the jets moved poleward, this was predicted to be the case by climate modelling, which in a warming world the jets would continue to move poleward. Something though changed around 4 years ago, the jet system in the NH started to dig south towards the equator, this wasn't in the script of climate modeller's, they was adamant that the jet would continue it's poleward migration.
It's only in the last 18 months that mainstream climate scientist have done an about turn and admitted how solar activity could be responsible for this, so how come they hadn't been able to model this scenario before now? Solar activity and it's effects on our climate are still not fully understood, mainstream climate scientist still don't accept how cosmic rays play such an important part in how they seed clouds. You have to look at the works of mavericks like Henrik Svensmark whose theory on cosmic rays was debunked by the so called professionals a few years back.
What does the future hold, well no one knows for sure without having a crystal ball, but all the current signs point to more extremes of weather.
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Care to enlighten us as to why? For me it shows an accurate picture of past global temps,without turning this into an AGW argument you can see clearly the correlation.Pretty pictures can indeed be designed to show anything. Even when that anything is utter nonsense!
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I enjoy his optimistic post, there are enough of us pessimist to more than counter his upbeat post, Hell he's even got me convinced that summer is coming now.Gavin,
You post the same optimistic stuff every day. Please wait until the run ends before posting.
All the ECM shows is what we have had all Summer, atlantic dominated with brief ridges.
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looks fairly certain now that the azores high will ridge towards the uk after the fun and games early next week subside.. but the strong blocking to our far north prevents it migrating over/ to our east.
the outlook then is fine! no washout, reasonable temps , but atm no real sign of a decent hot spell (after this weekends blip).
I'll take that mushy, we may get 3-5 days of reasonable weather if that comes off.
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Well seen as this is a thread for the UK, cheerio.Yes I totally agree.... we don't really need forums for each small area in summer but maybe a region for SE,SW,NW,NE? Downpour is very right, sorry to say this but it is sometimes annoying to hear people in Scotland and the northwest complaining about wet and cool weather when it's sunny and 30C here. The reality is that the SE is very different in climate terms to the NW average max for London in July is 23C compared to 18-19C in some places north and it's almost arid here so a new summer regional threads would be a good idea and stop the jealousy I always hear towards us in the SE!
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doesnt stop them in winter!
tbh id like it if a few of the 'big guns' posted even that, "nothings changed"...
I agree mushy, though it maybe a case of " The truth hurts "
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what i find frustrating with this forum is the lack of information by the more knowlegable being relayed here.... in winter theres hoards of experts discussing the 'what ifs'and 'the indications are' etc regarding the development of a cold snowy prospect.
will they PLEASE post something that doesnt leave the rest of us less knowlegable guessing what will happen, or is likely to happen?...
Maybe it's due to the fact that the outlook remains much the same as we've endured so far. Sorry for being pessimistic.
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I have to agree, absolutely no chance of 33-35c being recorded anywhere in the British Isles, except Gordon Ramsay's oven that is. All I see is typical British summer weather, a few warm/hot days interspersed with cool wet ones.LOL. this is what really confuses the newbies.
Latest GFS thoughts for Monday seem to be in the region 21- 25OC generally in the
south
With maybe a 26 or 27 in the heat islands of London.
Some Very cold nights next week after the fleeting warmth. Will certainly confuse the plants.
What a range of temps +25oC down to +5oC
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Indeed. Low solar actvity actually seems to make the weather more prone to extremes. Thats not just extreme cold, but at times extreme warmth as well as droughts and floods.
It also doesn't negate all the other short term influences we know can have an effect on our weather, such as ENSO, the NAO state, the PDO state, etc...
So whilst we would be one of the most prone places on earth to seeing changed weather patterns from low solar activity, it clearly wouldn't always mean cold weather, nor would it mean the weather is constantly blocked with no extended periods of zonal normality.
That's a very valid point as what records there are for that period clearly indicate the extremities encountered.
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It's still a warming and why is the Arctic warming immensely even though there are NO concrete jungles up there...that's where most of the warming is taking place and in parts of Russia where huge wildernesses still remain. Part of the reason why so many companies and governments have invested into the climate change idea is because it's from solid information. From what I see, it's pretty obvious our 7 billion population with all our technology ISN'T cooling the earth down.
Due to warmer waters, as a result of a positive PDO for thirty years, and a Positive NAO, add into the mix high solar activity and frequently strong el ninos and you have all the ingredients for what we are witnessing in the arctic. You really need to look at the bigger picture, by looking into past climatic shifts. Your right about 7 billion of mankind having an effect, though not through AGW IMO.
The problem with the idea that the recent cold winters are due to a solar influence is that it doesn't explain the cold winters of the 80s and 40s (and to a degree the 1960s but the only really cold winter in the 60s was 1962/1963 and the majority were rather cold/near normal)
The increase in atmospheric CO2 would magnify the effects of the sun, so even if the sun is releasing less heat energy the earth probably wouldn't cool sufficiently, even the influences in the ecosystem probably wouldn't be that great overall unless it effects a driver that's sensitive to solar change.
There was a fairly interesting article in the Metro this morning on P24;
"If the minimum lasted until 2100
There would be a drease in global temperature of between 0.1c and 0.3c. Unfortunately global warming is set to increase global temperatures by between 3.7c and 4.5c. polar ice could increase by upto 4 per cent but is set to decrease by 40 per cent as a result of global warming"
If anyone gets the chance to read the full article the editors column makes for some interesting (non-alarming) reading.
Look back and correlate temps with ENSO and the PDO, it's not just solar activity that changes our climate there's a whole spectrum of feedbacks to consider. Too many vested interest with too much to lose are doing their best to misinform and hoodwink the general public.
Apologies for getting way of topic, I'll keep to the subject we are meant to be discussing from here on.
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Plateauing over a decade? It's a start.
Especially considering more UHI stations have been filtered into the averages over the last couple of decades.
Now we are opening a can of worms with that one.
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Your quite right there is no cooling. merely a plateauing of temperatures over the last decade, as for a possible Maunder Minimum, well we can only speculate for now.Lets not turn it into an AGW thread, but even the skeptics global temperature records et al Spencer and UAH show NO cooling.
Unless of course we want to believe a few articles that say that an ice age might be on it's way, (even though they go on to say that it's still very unknown) and then disbelieve the worlds actual scientists....
Still it takes all sorts.
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The maximum will still be well below the norm, as it is right now. It's cycle 25 which is the one that is getting people excited, that is due to peak around 2022, and looks like being one of the weakest in centuries. Exciting times ahead, me thinks.You have to admit the last 3 winters have been out of the ordinary compared with late 1987/88 to whatever,excluding 1991 feb and 1995/1996 now the Eucalyptus trees around here on low ground where it`s coldest to night mins down to -18 last year,but even the coldest winter since 1978-79 two years ago has killed lots of those trees.
They were planted when the mild winters came in the late 80`s
I did find a site that 2005-06 the gulf stream was at it`s slowest and thats when we had our very blocked winter and russian had it`s coldest winter for umpteen years.
The gulf stream has quickened up more since for some reason.
As for the sun well solar maximum is going to be in May 2013,and it has woken up this year.
So mixed for this winter.
Another thing is there are more volcanos on the go this year,which may cool things.
Jonathan Powell has the reversed Midas touch, so anything he says just think opposites!This is Jonathan Powell's view on the "Mini Ice Age"
A Dormant Sun
What should be a particularly busy time in the solar cycle frankly isn't, which may put the skids under the doom ladden prophecy of a flare causing our demise at the end of the Mayan calender.
Much speculation from certain quarters of the media has ensued, with parallels being drawn to the onset of a quieter phase of solar activity, and a cooling here on Earth, and indeed, a decline into a mini ice-age, and the skating on thin ice scenario that brings for both those who dabble in speculation and naive skaters themselves.
That's a tad extreme though! Whereas solar cycles are trend orientated, it is well within the realms of possibility that the sun simply resumes its normal posture, and continues to generate sunspot and flare activity as it has been demonstrating. There are other quarters of the weather industry that must be bubbling with excitement, wide-eyed with the thoughts of making that final, elusive, connection.
Jonathan Powell Senior Weather Forecaster Sunday June 19th 2011
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Off course there's no proof of a shut down, but there is proof of a disturbance in the flow over the last couple of years, whether this means anything is another question.Perhaps, but the only way the sun really does power the Gulf Stream is by heating up the waters at the equator which causes the colder, denser water to rise, starting off the current. Of course, as the Earth warms up, more amounts of fresh water flow into the sea, upsetting the salinity balance in the water, effectively cutting off the Gulf Stream leading to an Ice Age.
However, I haven't seen significant proof that the Gulf Stream is started to shut down, so I don't think we need to worry too much just yet
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Looks like the bridge across Nares is finally giving way.
What an amazing picture.
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Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.
Maybe it does in a tentative sort of way, but not through a solar minimum rather at when solar activity is high. In layman's terms, the jet stream moves poleward at a time of higher solar activity this resulting in warmer temperatures/waters moving North also. This then causes a melting of the icepack in the Arctic, which then equates to colder waters moving towards the equator, thus resulting in a mixing of salinity/warmer waters with the colder waters from the poles.
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That is what I was implying?Surely you mean weather the effects [on our climate] of a Maunder Minimum are possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions? The Maunder Minimum describes the absence of sun spots.
Whatever happens in Earth's atmosphere has absolutely no effect on what the Sun does, whereas the inverse may be proved to be true.
Some argue that the added CO2 in the atmosphere, will negate the effects of a Maunder Minimum. Personally I feel that Solar output was responsible for the 30 year warming, combined with a positive PDO, and frequent positive ENSO ( El-Nino's ).
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I think the main reason is, in two words, "unrealistic expectations". This is the British Isles, located at the downwind end of the Atlantic, and exposed to the full force of Atlantic weather systems, rather than the south coast of Spain, but nonetheless an overwhelming majority of the people who post in Model Output Discussion consider anything short of "dry, sunny and at least 1.5C above average and constant high pressure" to be a major disaster, rather than seeing mediocrity for what it is. I don't think the views in MOD are, btw, representative of the vast majority of the site's membership- rather people with differing views are afraid to post in there for fear of being accused of blasphemy.
I can see grounds for people being disappointed at June, which so far has been slightly cooler, wetter and sunnier than average taking the country as a whole, which isn't what the original N-W summer forecast suggested, but it's been nothing compared to, say, the first half of Junes 1987 or 1998. But the fact is that over the years, June has always been a bit too cool for many people's tastes with July and August generally giving the warmest weather, "flaming June" has always been uttered more commonly in exasperation than as an accurate description, and I think the "June being the most reliable month over the last few years" might have had a distorting effect on perceptions.
This is so true TWS, many have been spoilt over the years when ENSO and solar conditions were far more favourable for summer warmth. Ok June hasn't been great, but we need to lower our expectations for the remainder of summer, a week or so of warm and sunny weather will soon banish the June blues!
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I think the problem we have with whether we are going into a cooling period or not, is we have nothing to compare with.
My point being, the last cool period was at the beginning of the 19th Century, & apart from from some fairly detailed records from Europe, there is not much else to help us decide on how the weather changed.
Of cause these days we have all the technology & communications we need to form opinions on the climate.
Sometimes that can have a negative effect though, already views have become entrenched as to whether or not a Maunder Minimum is possible with today's greenhouse gas emissions. The climate will continue to do just whatever it pleases in my eyes, it's a case of wait and see.
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Surprise suprise, they are going for "substantially colder than average" for January and February. I dearly hope they are right, but really, what a joke.
I believe they will be right, as we are now firmly stuck in a predictable pattern of Northern blocking and a Southerly tracking jet. Until this shows signs of abating, then the prospects of another cold winter cannot be ruled out.
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Obviously some peoples perception of summer is wall to wall sunshine and 30c temps, maybe a simple geography lesson wouldn't go amiss for these people.I'm sorry. but this is a perfect example of why I've struggled to have the patience to follow many of the threads on here for quite a while now. The actual forecast is excellent in as much as it is detailed, with decent reasoning to back it up. However, the opening phrase - 'anything remotely resembling summer materialising in the immediate future' - immediately set me grinding my teeth. Even over the coming week we have temperatures for large parts of the country ranging between 18c and 22c, with light winds, and periods of sunshine. OK, rain, (mostly in the form of showers), is also present, but honestly, if that kind of synopsis isn't pretty indicative of a UK summer, then what is ? If it isn't 'remotely resembling summer', which of the other three seasons does this weather resemble ???
Maybe I'm getting old, but to my mind more and more posts on here seem to need to include at least one 'headline grabbing' phrase, and I for one would prefer it if they didn't !
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Stalker!All i would add to that is the past 2 years have followed good / warm June's this year June has been cool / wet, apart from 3 day's.
Does anyone know if GP is on holiday as he's not been on the forums since June 08th at 08:19, i hope what's happened so far this summer hasn't made him leave the forum. :unsure:
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And the debate goes on
Even though I'm a big fan of GP I do believe his original LRF is bust.. So now he has put out an amended forecast all eyes are focused on this.Personally I feel there's more than enough time for GP's hot and dry summer to come to fruition, but if by the middle of next month we haven't seen a shift to more settled warmer conditions then the knives will be out ( again ) . Until then I'll watch this space.
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Recent eruptions yes [and that has me looking at winter 11/12 early], but its been fairly active volcano wise over last couple of years. Re the PDO there is good correlation with -ve PDO and -ve NAO too. It may prove a spoiler like the La Nina was for second part of winter. Uk weather seems to have a habit recently of locking itself into a lengthy pattern.
BFTP
Sorry Fred I thought you was referring to the present one. Regarding the correlation between -ve PDO and -veNAO, I always felt that when these were of both negative values then this would help in establishing further Northern Blocking, with a more amplified jet but this continuing to dig south?
Even though I'm a big fan of GP I do believe his original LRF is bust.. So now he has put out an amended forecast all eyes are focused on this.
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Normal service resumed as from tomorrow, nowhere near as wet as previous for Northern areas, but temp drop like a stone to below average/ average for all. Still it should be pleasant in any sunshine,