UV-RAY

Lovel day here temp maxed out at 23.8c humidity no higher than 59% and grey laden skies, ok the latter bit was a let down as I likes me sunshine.

Best way Pete although I do rate the CFS V2. Lets be be honest though model or man, both are hopeless at LRF.

He also said this summer could have shades of 76 and last winter 47 Lol.

Actually Pete the CFSV2 model has done another good job with this summers overall synoptic pattern, also people tend not to take any notice of them when it shows them what they don't want Lol.

A very unsettled signal for Autumn being picked up by all the long range models, September looks a write off for any warmth if they are indeed proven correct.

Best day in over a week here temp 23.6c with humidity levels down to 59%. You can keep your humid unhealthy high 30s weather thank you, I'm loving this.

IYBY not in mine Lol. Agreed, but it generally is wet when mild in winter. It's just as well I take all LRF with a pinch of salt, though Roger is generally pretty close, but not always.

Last winter was a non event until Spring really, the thought of a mild and probably wet winter doesn't inspire me the least

I thought I stumbled into the winter MOD thread earlier, glad to see normality has returned. Next week looks very entertaining, thunderstorms, heat, fresher air, lots of entertaining weather, but I've a feeling that the heat may well be harder to push to one side than the models currently suggest.

What I'm implying is not one of us can state with a degree of confidence the causation, yes it could be CO2 but it could also be down to oceanic heat content, volcanic, solar or all.

Agreed, but it doesn't explain why though and that is one thing we mustn't overlook.

Not from yourself BFTV, it's best not to name and shame though. As I said there is some good stuff posted in here regardless of which side of the camp your in.

Not with the Antarctic we're not, the melting around the peninsula accounts for but a fraction of the ice and we still don't know what is the causation despite many thinking they do.

One thing does look certain ( if the forecast is indeed correct ) and that is it will gradually turn more unsettled.

But it probably won't will it, unless you have evidence it will. Far too much emotive posting going on by some, amongst some good stuff by others.

It's perfect now it's next week Im not looking forward too. I can cope with high humidity levels in the tropics due to being in the sea/pool during the day and air conditioning during the night, but here no thank you.

I hate high humidity levels and find it odd that others do. Low to mid 20's with sunshine is perfect, if I want upper 30's I'll sit in the oven.

He's done very well so far for this month, maybe he's found a new lucky dice.

Just spent some time reading through the various LRF's and although they probably are fun to do they do seem to have little worthwhile value. It is also interesting to see that the forecasters percieved views and summary (accuracy) of his or hers LRF has little bearing to what was actually written. Having spent years reading them and having a bash at guessing them, I've come to the conclusion that we are no nearer now at making LRF than we were 50 years ago. All we can do is look at the long term signals and hopefully nothing out of the blue comes along and bins the forecast before it's had chance to get off the ground.

Lol, I thought you came from one. On a serious note not at all GW as we still don't fully understand how all our complex feedbacks work, if we did then we wouldn't have the MetO stating how our climate is more complicated than previously thought. We've still a lot to learn GW!

And what if there was a simple relationship that was fully understood and what if this simple relationship didn't involve complex feedbacks? :-)

What have Jonathan Powell, Vantage Weather Services and the Express got in common, that's right the reverse Midas touch.

It certainly can't be discounted Pete but I think that there are so many other variables which could also have as much impact, that any eggs out there shouldn't be put in baskets just yet.

@Pete. In reply to your post in the now locked thread yes I have questioned solar forcing as we seem to only know the tip of the iceberg on it's effects and feedbacks, this is why I don't think it's a one theory fits all scenario. But nearly all proponents of AGW see CO2 as being the main driver of rising temps when indeed there is little factual evidence to back up this claim, so I remain sceptical of any one theory being the be all and end all.

But that's the problem PM the scientific evidence is based on certain assumptions, hence why constant adjustments are needed to the temperature data sets.