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UV-RAY

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Everything posted by UV-RAY

  1. UV-RAY
    Sorry Fred I thought you was referring to the present one. Regarding the correlation between -ve PDO and -veNAO, I always felt that when these were of both negative values then this would help in establishing further Northern Blocking, with a more amplified jet but this continuing to dig south?
  2. UV-RAY
    Your not a politician by any chance, as you seem to share the same knack as them at avoiding direct answers. LRF please!
  3. UV-RAY
    I've been musing over the effects of volcanic activity myself Fred, but I thought there would be a lag effect from the recent eruption?
  4. UV-RAY
    Good post TWS we certainly do need to encourage people into research LRF . No LRF is infallible the slightest change has a huge knock on effect, the key is to learn from past mistakes. GP'S LRF have proven to be very good over a consistent time, and I'm sure he will look back come September and hold his hand up IF the rest of his forecast proves to be wrong.
  5. UV-RAY
    Have to agree with this, once the first part of the forecast is bust then how does the rest of the jigsaw fit together. GP record in LRF is better than anyone's, but looking at the SST profiles now it's really hard to see just where this heat would come from. An average summer looks the form horse too me.
  6. UV-RAY
    It's not a case of being against, LRF is fraught with difficulties and people just love to knock them. I take my hat off to anyone forecasting one, especially GP who puts more detail into one paragraph than most on here post in a lifetime. Personally I feel he's made the wrong call, SST profiles have changed dramatically since GP's forecast. It's still early days so lets wait until another few weeks before we put the nails in the coffin
  7. UV-RAY
    You really need to get out more TWS, these fantasies are unhealthy.
  8. UV-RAY
    If I was a betting man I would say the odds on a 1976 type summer coming off are 100/1. I expect summer to be similar to the previous 3, with Northern Blocking in place for much of the summer, though last years wasn't too bad.
  9. UV-RAY
    Well I'm still favouring a cold spring with frequent night time frost, with even the odd fall of snow thrown in for good measure. For me a warm start to June, will quickly give way to a Summer of cold and wet conditions. Northern blocking will once again be established, but with a far more active Atlantic than last year, and the jet tracking just to our South, this will lead to a very cold and wet Summer. I for one will be quite pleased if my forecast is right, as I hate hot and humid conditions.
  10. UV-RAY
    Personally I think it's damn right rude how some have had it in for Fred, regarding his and Roger's LRF. Sure January didn't go to plan and Fred did own up too this. It appears too me that some can make outrageous comments regarding winters over post, whilst posting in a inflammatory manner, yet remain untouchable by the powers that be. Please don't let this deter you and Roger Fred, keep up the good work!
  11. UV-RAY
    Anyone hoping for a hot summer better get the prozac out now, once La Nina relinquishes it's vice like grip those heights to our North will once again return. I expect a cold start to spring, a brief warm up in June, then a rinse and repeat of the last 3 summers.
  12. UV-RAY
    But the way I see it is, you need the blocking in place for any warming to take place, So which is the more dominant factor, the established blocking or the warming. One needs each other?
  13. UV-RAY
    What I would like to know is, which comes first the blocking or the SSW. Too my untrained eye, it appears we need blocking in place for a SSW event to take place?
  14. UV-RAY
    I'm not so sure about this to be honest, the beauty about the model thread as it stands, was that all could participate expressing a broad spectrum of views. Now it seems we have a them and us mentality, were the creme de la creme contribute on one thread, and the rest of us on another. This in my opinion will make one thread like a free for all. I'll reserve judgement until it's up and running, but hopefully I'll be proved wrong!
  15. UV-RAY

    In The News

    UV-RAY replied to jethro's topic in Climate Change

    I would say that it's an impossible task to say whether more are melting or increasing. As far as I know there is insufficient data to compare like for like. So we are really only speculating, which for me isn't very scientific.
  16. UV-RAY
    I'm not that convinced about SSW events, for me it's equivalent to which comes first the chicken or the egg. You need height rises for SSW events to take hold, and then SSW leads to blocking. All seems a little vague too me.
  17. UV-RAY
    I certainly agree with this,the last three years we have witnessed a displaced jet to our South and height rises to our North. Prior to this the Jet was moving polewards, and now it's digging south towards the equator. All this IMO, just adds confusion to to tele-connections, as any model just isn't programmed to deal with this kind of scenario. I would love to hear GP's view on this, as he is without doubt the most consistent forecaster in terms of results that I have seen.
  18. UV-RAY
    Found my place of solitude in here. I have no snow, and the outlook remains snowless here in Lancashire. I've never been a fan of North Easterlies and Easterlies!
  19. UV-RAY
    I think it's a case of some being reluctant to accept that natural forcings have, and will continue to be, the dominant factor governing our climate.
  20. UV-RAY
    Actually I'll think you will find that the Gulf stream as moved South during the LIA. Plenty of evidence to suggest that this happened many times before.
  21. UV-RAY
    I can't quite make out the uk on those maps. How accurate are these?
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