UV-RAY

Solar output remains very low compared to previous cycles, just because your hoping for mild doesn't mean it will be, and vice versa of course.

I'm sorry but you take a computer simulated model which have been found wanting with regards to forecasting global temps, but then want 100% proof that there lye's a correlation between reduced solar output and cooling temps. Where is the 100% proof that climate models are right?

Tin hats on and head for the bunkers.............Weather wars!!!

Interesting post as usual GP, so at this moment in time you envisage a rather average early winter temp wise, with the prospects of a cold spell late on. Doesn't fill me with much optimism if you are right, in fact a rather boring early winter if it's extremes of weather your looking for.

Hopefully an average October, a few days of warmth and a few nights of frost, with unsettled windy conditions in between. October heat is like April snow, pointless.

Others post LRF with scientific reasoning and facts, but then see the weather do exactly the opposite too what they forecast. Shades of 76 spring to mind.

For someone who was overly optimistic about a good summer on the back of Net Weathers LRF, and then chase every FI chart that promised heat, I find your views on winter rather amusing.

Maybe it's time for a Beyond Winter thread!

IMO a bad summer for those further North, and an average summer for those further South. Here in the Ribble Valley we didn't exceed 25c, a few dry/warm days here and there, but on the whole a phiss poor summer. Roll on winter.

Indeed, and after a relatively poor summer IMBY Autumnal conditions can't come quick enough.

Too true Pete, wasn't that long ago NASA was saying this solar cycle would be a strong one. But this what makes it all the more fascinating, no one can predict what will happen next. I would hazard a guess and say ENSO conditions would remain neutral/ weak nina throughout winter, but even if they was in a favorable state for another cold winter, there are still too many other variables which could scupper a cold winter.

Yes it's been a disappointing Summer for widespread heat, around here in the Ribble Valley temps haven't exceeded 23c. This is now the fourth summer we have had, with temps not exceeding 25c. Looking at the MO, and it's fair to assume that Summer will quietly fizzle away into Autumn.

I think September will be a cool and often unsettled month, with temps slightly below the seasonal average. October continues the cool unsettled theme, with night time frosts from around mid month. Again temps below the seasonal average. November starts off dry and rather cold with widespread night time frosts, around the middle of the month more unsettled conditions with temps well below the seasonal average. The rest of the month continues on a cold and unsettled theme, though milder at times the further South you are.

This week has been lovely in this part of Lancashire, we have already had 5 days of blue skies and temps in the lower 20s. Unfortunately by the look of things this will be the last of those for quite some time, still it's not as dire as 2007, at least it's been an average summer for most except Scotland.

Yes they are not the most reliable even at shorter timescales, having said that I do feel we will have a fourth colder than average winter due to favorable conditions, ie continuing low solar output, southerly tracking jet, favorable PDO and NAO conditions. Will I be rushing out to put my money were my mouth is, no chance!

Some evidence of an impending ice age, as such. Ice age threat should freeze EPA global warming regs The Examiner Op Eds Washington Examiner.htm More of a political rant really.

It's not cooling, but then again it's not warming. Temps have flatlined over the last few years, were they go from here is anyone's guess, but if solar predictions are right then we should see evidence for cooling within the next few years, albeit a small decrease.

Looks like after this week, summer settles back into what as become the default pattern all summer, Will August turn out worse than June/July, I wouldn't bet against it..

Too be honest I was expecting as much, the next 5-7 days look dry/ warmish for most, thereafter heights over Greenland re-establish their vice like grip and we seem to be back to square one. It's been a poor summer IMO, it's been a case of so near yet so far, similar to winters prior 08/09.

A much better reason would be how recent earthquake activity had temporally tilted the earth of it's normal axis, and thus resulting in a 1976 type summer in the US. A scientific explanation and one which might just pull the wool over our eyes.

I would heed caution, although the GFS is showing a warm/sunny spell you cannot ignore the Euro's I would expect the GFS to follow the Euro's by the end of today. Off course it may be the other way, and we get 3-5 days of hot sunny weather.

1. La Nina conditions are expected to remain neutral the first half of winter, then dip bringing weak Nina conditions. 2. The blocking conditions which have brought us our rubbish summer, is down to strong heights over Greenland, not the Azores. This is why we have only been able to see brief ridges from the Azores. 3. SST's always make a recovery from winter 4. Solar minimum remains extremely low, compare this cycle with the previous one. 5. Volacanic activity in Iceland last year had no impact on our winter, so why would that effect this winter?

Temps have plateaued though, so that's a start I guess. The proof in the pudding will be over the next few years, all the jigsaw pieces are in place, so now we will see if AGW really does effect temps.

Firstly any predictions of solar activity ramping up are way of the mark, yes it's more active, but compared to the last cycle it's in a coma. Also how sunspots are now counted, as to how they was counted in the LIA is vastly different. Secondly ENSO is predicted to be neutral/ weak la nina. add to that more favorable QBO conditions and the odds on another cold winter are 65% I would say. So my conclusion after looking at all these variables, is for a Mild wet Bartlett winter!

July is now the new October, with Summer starting in March and ending in May.